34 research outputs found

    COVID-19 policy interventions and fertility dynamics in the context of pre-pandemic welfare support

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    This paper focuses on nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to explain fertility dy-namics during the pandemic, while considering countries’ institutional context. Weargue that containment policies disrupted people’s lives and increased their uncer-tainty more in countries with weak welfare support systems, while health-relatedand economic support NPIs mitigated such disruptions much more there, as theywere less expected by citizens. We estimate monthly “excess” crude birth rates (CBRs)and find that countries with low public support—Southern Europe, East Asia, andEastern Europe—experienced larger decreases and less of a rebound in CBRs thancountries with histories of high public spending—Western, Central, and NorthernEurope. However, in low support countries, NPIs are much more strongly associ-ated with excess CBRs—containment NPIs more negatively and health and economicsupport NPIs more positively—with the exception of the one-month lag of contain-ment NPIs, for which the opposite holds. When putting these coefficients into broaderperspective, our findings suggest that the actual implementation of all NPIs takentogether mitigated fertility declines. This is especially the case for low public supportcountries, whereas one might have seen a birth decline even in high support countriesif the NPIs were not implemented

    Market sentiment and heterogeneous fundamentalists in an evolutive financial market mode

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    We study a financial market populated by heterogeneous fundamentalists, whose decisions are driven by ``animal spirits''. Each agent may have optimistic or pessimistic beliefs about the fundamental value, which are selected from time to time on the basis of an evolutionary mechanism. The evolutionary selection depends on a weighted evaluation of the general market sentiment perceived by the agents and on a profitability measure of the existent strategies. As the relevance given to the sentiment index increases, a herding phenomenon in agents behavior may take place and the animal spirits can drive the market toward polarized economic regimes, which coexist and are characterized by persistent high or low levels of optimism and pessimism. This conduct is detectable from agents polarized shares and beliefs, which in turn influence the price level. Such polarized economic regimes can consist in stable steady states or can be characterized by endogenous complex dynamics, generating persistent alternating waves of optimism and pessimism, as well as return distributions displaying fat tails and excess volatility

    Market sentiment and heterogeneous fundamentalists in an evolutive financial market mode

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    We study a financial market populated by heterogeneous fundamentalists, whose decisions are driven by ``animal spirits''. Each agent may have optimistic or pessimistic beliefs about the fundamental value, which are selected from time to time on the basis of an evolutionary mechanism. The evolutionary selection depends on a weighted evaluation of the general market sentiment perceived by the agents and on a profitability measure of the existent strategies. As the relevance given to the sentiment index increases, a herding phenomenon in agents behavior may take place and the animal spirits can drive the market toward polarized economic regimes, which coexist and are characterized by persistent high or low levels of optimism and pessimism. This conduct is detectable from agents polarized shares and beliefs, which in turn influence the price level. Such polarized economic regimes can consist in stable steady states or can be characterized by endogenous complex dynamics, generating persistent alternating waves of optimism and pessimism, as well as return distributions displaying fat tails and excess volatility

    High Risk of Secondary Infections Following Thrombotic Complications in Patients With COVID-19

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    Background. This study’s primary aim was to evaluate the impact of thrombotic complications on the development of secondary infections. The secondary aim was to compare the etiology of secondary infections in patients with and without thrombotic complications. Methods. This was a cohort study (NCT04318366) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients hospitalized at IRCCS San Raffaele Hospital between February 25 and June 30, 2020. Incidence rates (IRs) were calculated by univariable Poisson regression as the number of cases per 1000 person-days of follow-up (PDFU) with 95% confidence intervals. The cumulative incidence functions of secondary infections according to thrombotic complications were compared with Gray’s method accounting for competing risk of death. A multivariable Fine-Gray model was applied to assess factors associated with risk of secondary infections. Results. Overall, 109/904 patients had 176 secondary infections (IR, 10.0; 95% CI, 8.8–11.5; per 1000-PDFU). The IRs of secondary infections among patients with or without thrombotic complications were 15.0 (95% CI, 10.7–21.0) and 9.3 (95% CI, 7.9–11.0) per 1000-PDFU, respectively (P = .017). At multivariable analysis, thrombotic complications were associated with the development of secondary infections (subdistribution hazard ratio, 1.788; 95% CI, 1.018–3.140; P = .043). The etiology of secondary infections was similar in patients with and without thrombotic complications. Conclusions. In patients with COVID-19, thrombotic complications were associated with a high risk of secondary infections

    Managing Health Shocks: An Analysis of the Italian Government Approach With the Covid-19

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    With the spread of the coronavirus disease across over 100 countries and its status upgraded to that of a pandemic on 11 March 2020 (World Health Organization), increased attention is being placed on the policy measures that may be required to effectively curb the rate of contagion within and across countries. Currently, several governments, such as China, Italy, Spain, Japan and the Republic of Korea, have implemented emergency measures informed by the principle of social distancing to limit the spread of coronavirus (World Health Organization). Ever since the virus was first identified in Wuhan City in December 2019, this succession of uncoordinated policy responses offers a set of natural experiments that should be analysed to understand the successes and failures of containment at the societal level. In this analysis, we focus on the case of Italy, the hardest hit country in Europe (Dong, Du, & Gardner, 2020; World Health Organization). The objective of this short note is to provide an even-handed analysis of the actions taken by the Italian government to cope with the transmission of the virus and to highlight lessons in emergency management that can be learnt for other countries currently facing the onset of the Covid-19 epidemic

    Prevalence of Peri-Implant Mucositis and Peri-Implantitis in Patients Treated with a Combination of Axial and Tilted Implants Supporting a Complete Fixed Denture

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    Objectives. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the incidence and prevalence of peri-implant mucositis and peri-implantitis in patients with a fixed full-arch prosthesis supported by two axial and two tilted implants. Materials and Methods. Sixty-nine patients were included in the study. Each patient received a fixed full-arch prosthesis supported by two mesial axial and two distal tilted implants to rehabilitate the upper arch, the lower arch, or both. Three hundred thirty-six implants for 84 restorations were delivered. Patients were scheduled for follow-up visits every 6 months in the first 2 years and yearly after. At each follow-up visit peri-implant mucositis and peri-implantitis were diagnosed if present. Results. The overall follow-up range was from 12 to 130 months (mean 63,2 months). Three patients presented peri-implantitis. The prevalence of peri-implant mucositis ranged between 0 and 7,14% of patients (5,06% of implants) while the prevalence of peri-implantitis varied from 0 to 4,55% of patients (3,81% of implants). Conclusions. The prevalence and incidence of peri-implant mucositis and peri-implantitis are lower than most of the studies in literature. Therefore this kind of rehabilitation could be considered a feasible option, on the condition of adopting a systematic hygienic protocol

    Fifteen-Year Follow-Up of a Case of Surgical Retreatment of a Single Gingival Recession

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    Purpose. The aim of the present case report was to describe the retreatment of the single gingival recession in aesthetic area, in the presence of scar formation and consequent impairment of aesthetic appearance. Methods. A young patient with one single recession of 4 mm of 2.1 was treated with coronally advanced flap and subepithelial connective tissue graft, through a microsurgical approach that aimed at the removal of the scarred fibrous tissue. The intervention was performed using a surgical microscope as a magnification device. Results. Fifteen years after the surgical treatment, a substantial stable resolution of the gingival recession could be observed. Moreover, a further improvement of the aesthetic appearance could be observed. Conclusions. This case report suggests that periodontal microsurgery could be an effective approach for the retreatment of gingival recessions and, in long-term evaluation, to reduce the aesthetic problem due to the presence of scar formation. Further studies with a larger sample size are needed to better evaluate its efficacy

    Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in highincome countries

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    Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8.4%), and Portugal (-6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed

    The COVID-19 pandemic and human fertility

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    The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will have consequences for human populations. Worldwide, mortality levels are certainly affected. The worst-hit northern Italian provinces recorded losses of period life expectancy of 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women, the largest decline in life expectancy since the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic and World War II. Similar patterns follow in other countries. With the focus firmly on deaths, the scientific debate risks overlooking that population dynamics are also shaped by fertility trajectories. Throughout history, spikes in mortality owing to events such as wars, famines, and pandemics were followed by changes in fertility, resulting in fewer births in the short term and by recuperation in subsequent years. Economic and social change triggered by a pandemic is also likely to influence childbearing intentions and completed fertility. How the COVID-19 pandemic will affect fertility has implications for the rate of population aging, shaping future health challenges and economic growth potential across the globe

    Exploring the Relationship between Care Homes and Excess Deaths in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Italy

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    We explore the relationship between the spatial distributions of excess deaths and care home facilities during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Using registry-based mortality data (January 1st- March 31st, 2015-2020) for Lombardy, one of the areas hit most severely, we estimate that municipalities with care homes present significantly higher excess death rates among the elderly (+41%). We find that this effect is not driven by the size of care homes and of the vulnerable population that they host. Rather, our results suggest that the excess deaths did not occur only within care homes and these facilities acted as one of the possible catalysts in the diffusion of COVID-19 in the whole elderly population of their surrounding territory
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