Assessing the environmental impacts of production- and consumption-side measures in sustainable agriculture intensification in the European Union

Sustainable agricultural intensification (SI) is an important strategy to respond to the combined challenge of achieving food security and providing public goods and ecosystem services to society, including mitigation and adaptation of climate change. Sustainable intensification includes a wide range of measures at both the supply and demand-side of agricultural production. However, currently, it is unclear what are the most effective and priority measures. This study assesses the potential of different SI measures for reducing GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and increasing land use efficiency in the European Union's agriculture sector. A scenario approach was combined with life cycle analysis to quantify the environmental impacts of a number of different SI measures. The sustainable intensification measures assessed in this study are: 1) changing human diet; 2) using food waste in livestock diets; 3) shifting from monoculture cropping to crop rotation, and, 4) incorporating crop residues into the soil. The results reveal that the studied SI measures have the potential to increase land use savings, ranging from 0.06 to 3.32 m2/person/day, while GHG emission savings ranging from 71 to 1872 g CO2-eq/person/day can be achieved at EU level. Among these SI measures, changing human diet showed a remarkably high reduction of environmental impacts. On the contrary, increased GHG emission savings in the other SI measures (i.e. crop residue incorporation in the field and replacing soybean meal in conventional feed by food waste-based feed) are counter effected by increased GHG emissions in the energy sector due to reduction of feedstock availability for bioenergy production. The approach used in this study allows the assessment of both the production and consumption-side SI measures and allows the identification of the most effective SI measures and their potential trade-offs

Meeting global land restoration and protection targets:What would the world look like in 2050?

Land restoration has received increased attention recently as a tool to counteract negative externalities of unsustainable land management on human well-being. This is reflected in targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), the United Nations Framework of the Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). However, the implications of these targets for land use, especially considering their potential conflict with growing food production demands, are largely unexplored. We study the potential and aggregated consequences of meeting these targets on land cover and land system change. We do so by analyzing targets originating from these global commitments towards land restoration and protection and implement them in a global land system change model. We compare this Restoration and Protection scenario with simulation results of two plausible pathways of socio-economic development in the absence of these targets, following the Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) storylines. We find that meeting global land restoration and protection targets would increase global tree cover by 4 million km², increasing forest carbon stocks by 50 Gt and protecting 28% of the terrestrial area with the highest value of both biodiversity and carbon storage. Gains in tree cover and natural land systems would cause a contraction of crop, pasture- and bare land. This results in further cropland intensification and the expansion of land systems that are combining land use demands in mosaics of forest and agriculture. Without these targets, land system architecture tends to become more specialized, while many carbon and biodiversity hotspots, such as in the Americas, India, and Indonesia would be lost. Grassland-agriculture mosaics were threatened by land use change under all scenarios, requiring greater consideration in research and environmental policy. Our results emphasize the need for targeted land management in line with the analyzed policy targets if global restoration and protection targets are to be achieved

Conceptualising fields of action for sustainable intensification A systematic literature review and application to regional case studies

[EN] After two decades of research on sustainable intensification (SI), namely securing food production on less environmental cost, heterogeneous understandings and perspectives prevail in a broad and partly fragmented scientific literature. Structuring and consolidating contributions to provide practice-oriented guidelines are lacking. The objectives of this study are to (1) comprehensively explore the academic SI literature, (2) propose an implementation-oriented conceptual framework, and (3) demonstrate its applicability for region-specific problem settings. In a systematic literature review of 349 papers covering the international literature of 20 years of SI research, we identified SI practices and analysed temporal, spatial and disciplinary trends and foci. Based on key SI practices, a conceptual framework was developed differentiating four fields of action from farm to regional and landscape scale and from land use to structural optimisation. Its applicability to derive region specific SI solutions was successfully tested through stakeholder processes in four European case studies. Disciplinary boundaries and the separation of the temporal and spatial strands in the literature prevent a holistic address of SI. This leads to the dominance of research describing SI practices in isolation, mainly on the farm scale. Coordinated actions on the regional scale and the coupling of multiple practices are comparatively un-derrepresented. Results from the case studies demonstrate that implementation is extremely context-sensitive and thus crucially depends on the situational knowledge of farmers and stakeholders. Although, there is no 'one size fits all' solution, practitioners in all regions identified the need for integrated solutions and common action to implement suitable SI strategies at the regional landscape level and in local ecosystems.This research was financially supported by the European Commission under grant agreement 652615 and conducted in the context of the ERA-Net FACCE SURPLUS project VITAL, with the national funders NWO (Netherlands), BMBF (Germany), INIA (Spain), ANR (France).Weltin, M.; Zasada, I.; Piorr, A.; Debolini, M.; Geniaux, G.; Moreno-Pérez, OM.; Scherer, L.... (2018). Conceptualising fields of action for sustainable intensification A systematic literature review and application to regional case studies. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment. 257:68-80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2018.01.023S688025

Unpacking ecosystem service bundles: towards predictive mapping of synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services

Multiple ecosystem services (ES) can respond similarly to social and ecological factors to form bundles. Identifying key social-ecological variables and understanding how they co-vary to produce these consistent sets of ES may ultimately allow the prediction and modelling of ES bundles, and thus, help us understand critical synergies and trade-offs across landscapes. Such an understanding is essential for informing better management of multi-functional landscapes and minimising costly trade-offs. However, the relative importance of different social and biophysical drivers of ES bundles in different types of social-ecological systems remains unclear. As such, a bottom-up understanding of the determinants of ES bundles is a critical research gap in ES and sustainability science. Here, we evaluate the current methods used in ES bundle science and synthesize these into four steps that capture the plurality of methods used to examine predictors of ES bundles. We then apply these four steps to a cross-study comparison (North and South French Alps) of relationships between social-ecological variables and ES bundles, as it is widely advocated that cross-study comparisons are necessary for achieving a general understanding of predictors of ES associations. We use the results of this case study to assess the strengths and limitations of current approaches for understanding distributions of ES bundles. We conclude that inconsistency of spatial scale remains the primary barrier for understanding and predicting ES bundles. We suggest a hypothesis-driven approach is required to predict relationships between ES, and we outline the research required for such an understanding to emerge

Ecologically and biophysically optimal allocation of expanded soy production in Bavaria, Germany

A debate about cultivation and trading of soy has emerged among scientists, policymakers, and the public in recent years. Export-orientated soy production in regions of South America is associated with large-scale ecosystem destruction. Since soy is an important source of animal fodder, policymakers are developing schemes to support and enhance sustainable domestic soy cultivation, especially in the EU. Expanded soy cultivation should ideally provide high yields and at the same time promote environmental benefits. For this purpose, we applied a multi-objective optimization algorithm that selects areas with maximum soy suitability, minimum erosion risk, need for low fertilizer input due to water quality issues, and need for diversification of monotonous crop rotations. We use the state of Bavaria in Germany as a case study, modeling full self-sufficiency of soy. The results of the optimization indicate synergies between plantation suitability with need for low fertilization input and crop variation, which implies that the environmental benefit of nitrogen fixation and rotation diversification from soy plants can easily be reconciled with food productivity. However, slight trade-offs occur between erosion risk and the three other objectives, i.e., locations with better soy production might be more prone toward erosion risk. As a potential consequence of expanded soy cultivation in Bavaria, we identified winter wheat, grain maize, potatoes, and sugar beet as those crops that have the highest share of displaced cultivation area. To reduce such land use conflicts and ensure self-sufficiency in relevant crops, we recommend to limit the use of soy as animal feed. Nevertheless, we propose to explicitly incorporate the local need for the environmental benefits of soy cultivation in the planning for soy expansion. In doing so, domestic soy can turn into a real sustainable alternative to imported plant protein

Perspectives of farmers and tourists on agricultural abandonment in east Lesvos, Greece

Multi-stakeholder perceptions of landscape changes are increasingly recognized as essential inputs to discussions on future landscape developments, particularly when addressing the future of European rural areas experiencing agricultural abandonment. This research presents a case exploration of abandonment of olive plantations in east Lesvos, Greece. We conducted two sets of semi-structured interviews to relate an exploration on local farmers’ ability and willingness to maintain the plantations, to the results of a landscape preference survey undertaken with tourists. Three farmer types are identified following a cluster analysis based on attributes of individual ability and willingness to farm. Farmers belonging to the prevalent type revealed low ability and willingness and expect to further extensify their farms. The remaining two farmer types have higher willingness; they are motivated by cultural reasons, more frequently expressing a desire to maintain their land under family ownership, and partake in social cooperative initiatives promoting practices valorizing the olive plantations. We outline how these types interact with regional drivers of change, and partly also contribute to persistence of abandonment through constrained ability to farm. Abandonment does not align with current landscape preferences of tourists, who favor cultivated landscapes, elements of traditionality within built infrastructure and undertake nature-based activities. We discuss how high willingness to farm associated with professional and pluri-active forms of farming may however provide opportunities to maintain the cultivated landscape and synergize with (agri-)tourism demand. Our findings are comparable to those of other European studies, contributing to discussions on the future of its rural landscapes

Potential for land and water management adaptations in Mediterranean croplands under climate change

CONTEXT: The Mediterranean Basin has been identified as a climate change “hotspot”, a region where increased warming and drying are expected to occur at rates faster than the global average. Increasing scientific attention has therefore been drawn to the repercussions of climate change for the Mediterranean's diverse and valued agricultural sector. The extent to which these repercussions vary throughout the region, owing both to a non-uniform distribution of climatic hazards and to uneven adaptive capacities of farmers, remains however unquantified. OBJECTIVE: We hereby provide a comprehensive spatial assessment of the potential to implement different farm-based land and water management adaptations across the Mediterranean's croplands, and evaluate the extent to which different regions see a match or a mismatch between areas of adaptation need and areas of adaptation capacity. METHODS: This approach made use of spatial multi-criteria analysis to evaluate the suitability of different farm adaptations, and relied on the Ecocrop climate suitability model and climate data on changing duration or frequency of extremes to identify areas of adaptation need under a high-end climate change scenario. The adaptations explored in this work span a range of sustainable approaches addressing different components of the farming system (soil-based, water-based, and crop-based adaptations). For each sub-system, we compared the potential to implement an adaptation representing an incremental change vs. one involving greater transformation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate a worsening of climatic conditions for all croplands in the region, and particularly within the Mediterranean extents of Egypt, Turkey, Greece, Spain, Morocco, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Israel. In more than half of these countries, >60% of highly affected Mediterranean areas, on average, see no tangible potential to implement adaptations. Importantly, potentials for adaptation, and particularly of transformational adaptations having the greatest hypothesized capacity to buffer against the effects of climate change, are found to be lower within areas where the most adverse climate change hazards are forecast to occur. SIGNIFICANCE: For regions found to be approaching so-called limits to adaptation, this research contributes to growing calls for consideration of more transformational options, alongside the opportunities and sacrifices these options entail. For regions where considerable (yet unrealized) adaptation capacity is found to match areas of adaptation need, this paper instead presents a basis for further investigation on how to bridge adaptation capacity and preparedness

Contextualizing local landscape initiatives in global change:a scenario study for the high forest zone, Ghana

Integrated landscape management (ILM) has received increased interest to reconcile multiple conflicting demands on a landscape scale. ILM aims at addressing major interconnected global challenges, such as poverty, food security, deforestation, and climate change. A principal element of ILM is the consideration of multiple scales, harmonizing local-level needs and ambitions with those that derive from outside the landscape. ILM initiatives are most often initiated by local actors focusing on local priorities, thereby insufficiently realizing that the landscape is embedded in a wider macroeconomic and societal context. We contextualize a landscape initiative located in the high forest zone of southern Ghana, focusing on global socioeconomic and political developments that are expected to have an influence on the region. We built two “sustainability” scenarios for the period between 2015 and 2030, reflecting the demands and ambitions of local stakeholders (bottom-up) and of global environmental policy (top-down) for the region. We find that global climate and cocoa production priorities could induce synergies between food production, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation at the scale of the case study region but could come at the cost of mixed forest systems that play an important role in livelihoods on the landscape scale. Land change scenarios can play a critical role in assessing and visualizing such interactions and provide a platform for discussion and negotiation on how to integrate different objectives in the design of landscape initiatives