Not Everything that Counts Can be Counted: A Critical Look at Risk Ratings and Governance Indicators

Accurately evaluating country risk and assessing the quality of governance in emerging market economies has become a priority of international corporations, investment banks and multilateral financial institutions. The rating system of the Political Risk Services (PRS) Group, the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), constitutes one of the most influential time-series databases of country risk analysis. This study assesses the accuracy and predictive powers of the ICRG model, evaluating its ability to discern trends and highlight structural vulnerabilities, and thus to warn of impending crises. Three major crises are examined: the Brazilian financial crisis of 1999, the Argentine economic meltdown in December 2001 and the Peruvian political crisis of 2000. The study finds mixed results, which have important implications for research and policy.

Phylogeography of a widespread species: pre-glacial vicariance, refugia, occasional blocking straits and long-distance migrations

Phylogeographic studies give us the opportunity to reconstruct the historical migrations of species and link them with climatic and geographic variation. They are, therefore, a key tool to understanding the relationships among biology, geology and history. One of the most interesting biogeographical areas of the world is the Mediterranean region. However, in this area, the description of concordant phylogeographic patterns is quite scarce, which limits the understanding of evolutionary patterns related to climate. Species with one-dimensional distribution ranges, such as the strawberry tree ( Arbutus unedo ), are particularly useful to unravel these patterns. Here, we describe its phylogeographic structure and check for concordance with patterns seen in other Mediterranean plants: longitudinal/latitudinal clines of diversity, evidence for glacial refugia and the role of sea straits in dispersal. We also identify the most likely source for the disjunct Irish population. With this aim, we sequenced four chloroplast non-coding fragments of A. unedo from 23 populations covering its whole distribution. We determined the genetic diversity, population structure, haplotype genealogy and time to the most recent common ancestor. The genealogy revealed two clades that separated during the last 700 ky but before the last glacial maximum. One clade occupies Atlantic Iberia and North Africa, while the other occurs in the Western Mediterranean. The Eastern Mediterranean is inhabited by newer haplotypes derived from both clades, while the Irish population is closely related to Iberian demes. The straits of Sicily and Gibraltar partially restricted the gene flow. We concluded that a vicariance event during the Late Quaternary in the western end of the species' range followed by eastward migration seems a likely explanation for the observed phylogeographic pattern. The role of straits indicates an occasional communication between Europe and North Africa, suggesting that the latter was a novel refugia. The East–West genetic split in Iberia is consistent with the refugia-within-refugia model. Finally, the strawberry tree possibly reached Ireland from Iberia instead of throughout the maritime fringe of France as previously thoughtThis work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (research grant CGL2009-11356), the European Regional Development's Fund (ERDF) and also by the Spanish Ministry of Education (FPU fellowship AP-2009-0962 to X.S.)S

Population Structure of a Widespread Species under Balancing Selection: The Case of Arbutus unedo L.

Arbutus unedo L. is an evergreen shrub with a circum-Mediterranean distribution that also reaches the Eurosiberian region in northern Iberia, Atlantic France, and a disjunct population in southern Ireland. Due to the variety of climatic conditions across its distribution range, the populations of A. unedo were expected to display local adaptation. Conversely, common garden experiments revealed that diverse genotypes from a range of provenances produce similar phenotypes through adaptive plasticity, suggesting the action of stabilizing selection across its climatically heterogeneous range. Nonetheless, since a uniform response might also result from extensive gene flow, we have inferred the population structure of A. unedo and assessed whether its extended and largely one-dimensional range influences gene flow with the help of AFLP genotypes for 491 individuals from 19 populations covering the whole range of the species. As we had anticipated, gene flow is restricted in A. unedo, providing further support to the hypothesis that stabilizing selection is the most likely explanation for the homogeneous phenotypes along the range. The Euro-Siberian populations were not particularly isolated from the Mediterranean. Instead, there was a distinct genetic divide between the populations around the Mediterranean Sea and those sampled along Atlantic coasts from northern Africa up to Ireland. This genetic structure suggests the action of historic rather than biogeographic factors as it seems consistent with a scenario of independent glacial refugia in the Atlantic and Mediterranean portions of the range of A. unedo. Genetic exchange was likewise restricted within each set of populations. Nevertheless, isolation-by-distance (IBD) was stronger, and FST increased faster with distance, along the Atlantic, suggesting that gene flow might be larger among Mediterranean populations. Genetic diversity was significantly lower in NW Iberia and Ireland than in other populations whereas Ireland was more closely related to populations in NW Iberia than to a population in Atlantic France, suggesting a postglacial stepping-stone colonization of the Atlantic coast. Altogether, our results show that stabilizing selection is able to homogenize the phenotypic response even when population structure is strong, gene flow is constrained, and the phylogeographic past is complexThis research was supported by research grant CGL2009-11356 (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación) and FPU fellowship AP-2009-0962 (Ministerio de Educación). This research was also supported by the European Regional Development's Fund (ERDF)S

Lyapunov Self-triggered Controller for Nonlinear Trajectory Tracking of Unicycle-type Robot

This paper focuses on the design and implementation of an aperiodic control of nonholonomic robots tracking nonlinear trajectories. The main objective of our controller is to reduce the number of updates while preserving control performance guarantees. To solve the problem in a more efficient way, we design two aperiodic control solutions, one to reach a target point and a second to track a predefined nonlinear trajectory. Unlike most previous work, our triggering condition only updates the controller when the time derivative of the Lyapunov function becomes nonnegative, without taking into account the measurement error. Multiple simulated results with different initial conditions are included, showing how our control solution significantly reduces the need for communication in comparison with periodic and other aperiodic strategies while preserving a desired tracking performance. To validate the proposal experimental tests of each control technique with a P3-DX robot remotely controlled through an IEEE 802.11g wireless network are also carried out

A day-ahead irradiance forecasting strategy for the integration of photovoltaic systems in virtual power plants

Encouraged by the considerable cost reduction, small-scale solar power deployment has become a reality during the last decade. However, grid integration of small-scale photovoltaic (PV) solar systems still remains unresolved. High penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) results in technical challenges for grid operators. To address this, Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) have been defined and developed to manage distributed energy resources with the aim of facilitating the integration of RESs. This paper introduces a hybrid irradiance forecasting approach aimed at facilitating the integration of PV systems into a VPP, especially when a historical irradiance dataset is exiguous or non-existent. This approach is based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and a novel similar hour-based selection algorithm, has been tested for a real PV installation, and has been validated also considering irradiance measurements from an aggregation of ground-based meteorological stations, which emulate the nodes of a VPP. Under a reduced historical dataset, the results show that the proposed similar hour-based method produces the best forecasts with regard to those obtained by the ANN-based approach. This is particularly true for one-month and two-month datasets minimizing the mean error by 16.32% and 9.07% respectively. Finally, to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach, a comparative analysis has been carried out between the hybrid method and the most used benchmarks in the literature, namely, the persistence method and the method based on similar days. It has been demonstrated conclusively that the proposed model yields promising results regardless the length of the historical dataset.Comunidad de MadridAgencia Estatal de Investigació

Determination of texture by infrared spectroscopy in titanium oxide–anatase thin films

12 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables, 2 appendix.-- PACS: 68.55.Jk; 78.66.Nk; 78.30.HvA theoretical model to determine the effective dielectric tensor of heterogeneous materials composed by anisotropic microcrystallites has been introduced to explain the infrared spectral features of textured thin films of uniaxial materials as the function of a textural parameter. This theoretical treatment is able to satisfactorily reproduce the experimental absorbance spectra of TiO2–anatase thin films chosen as a model system. Comparison of texture data obtained from infrared spectroscopy and x-ray diffraction are in good agreement which support the validity of the proposed model.Peer reviewe

Self-arranged misfit dislocation network formation upon strain release in La0.7Sr0.3MnO3/LaAlO3(100) epitaxial films under compressive strain

Santiso, José et al.Lattice-mismatched epitaxial films of LaSrMnO (LSMO) on LaAlO (001) substrates develop a crossed pattern of misfit dislocations above a critical thickness of 2.5 nm. Upon film thickness increases, the dislocation density progressively increases, and the dislocation spacing distribution becomes narrower. At a film thickness of 7.0 nm, the misfit dislocation density is close to the saturation for full relaxation. The misfit dislocation arrangement produces a 2D lateral periodic structure modulation (Λ≈ 16 nm) alternating two differentiated phases: one phase fully coherent with the substrate and a fully relaxed phase. This modulation is confined to the interface region between film and substrate. This phase separation is clearly identified by X-ray diffraction and further proven in the macroscopic resistivity measurements as a combination of two transition temperatures (with low and high T). Films thicker than 7.0 nm show progressive relaxation, and their macroscopic resistivity becomes similar than that of the bulk material. Therefore, this study identifies the growth conditions and thickness ranges that facilitate the formation of laterally modulated nanocomposites with functional properties notably different from those of fully coherent or fully relaxed material.This research was funded by the Spanish MINECO (projects: MAT2011-29081-C02, MAT2012-33207 and MAT2013-47869-C4-1-P, Consolider-Ingenio CSD2008-00023) and the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 645658. We also acknowledge financial aid from the Generalitat de Catalunya (2014 SGR 501 and 2014 SGR 1216). J. S. thanks the support of Ministry of Education and Science through program “Salvador de Madariaga” for a grant (ref: PRX14/00297) to perform a stay at MIT. Z.K. is grateful for the support from the Ministry of Education, Science, and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia through Project III45018. Q.L. and B.Y. thank the National Science Foundation for support through the MIT Center of Materials Science and Engineering MRSEC under grant no. DMR-1419807. This work made use of the Shared Experimental Facilities supported in part by the MRSEC Program of the National Science Foundation under award number DMR – 1419807. We thank Dr. Belén Ballesteros (ICN2, Barcelona) and Prof. Marie-Jo Casanova (CEMES, Toulouse) for their assistance with transmission electron microscopy experiments. We are grateful to J. Rubio-Zuazo and the ESRF for providing assistance in using beamline BM25. We also thank HZB for the allocation of synchrotron radiation beamtime at Bessy.Peer Reviewe

Aperiodic two-layer energy management system for community microgrids based on blockchain strategy

Regulatory changes in different countries regarding self-consumption and growing public concern about the environment are encouraging the establishment of community microgrids. These community microgrids integrate a large number of small-scale distributed energy resources and offers a solution to enhance power system reliability and resilience. This work proposes a geographically-based split of the community microgrids into clusters of members that tend to have similar consumption and generation profiles, mimicking the most typical layout of cities. Assuming a community microgrid divided into clusters, a two-layer architecture is developed to facilitate the greater penetration of distributed energy resources in an efficient way. The first layer, referred as the market layer, is responsible for creating local energy markets with the aim of maximising the economic benefits for community microgrid members. The second layer is responsible for the network reconfiguration, which is based on the energy balance within each cluster. This layer complies with the IEC 61850 communication standard, in order to control commercial sectionalizing and tie switches. This allows the community microgrid network to be reconfigured to minimise energy exchanges with the main grid, without requiring interaction with the distributed system operator. To implement this two-layer energy management strategy, an aperiodic market approach based on Blockchain technology, and the additional functionality offered by Smart Contracts is adopted. This embraces the concept of energy communities since it decentralizes the control and eliminates intermediaries. The use of aperiodic control techniques helps to overcome the challenges of using Blockchain technology in terms of storage, computational requirements and member privacy. The scalability and modularity of the Smart Contract-based system allow each cluster of members to be designed by tailoring the system to their specific needs. The implementation of this strategy is based on low-cost off-the-shelf devices, such as Raspberry Pi 4 Model B boards, which operate as Blockchain nodes of community microgrid members. Finally, the strategy has been validated by emulating two use cases based on the IEEE 123-node system network model highlighting the benefits of the proposal.Comunidad de Madri

Antisite Defects and Chemical Expansion in Low-damping, High-magnetization Yttrium Iron Garnet Films

Yttrium iron garnet is widely investigated for its suitability in applications ranging from magneto-optical and microwave devices to magnonics. However, in the few-nanometer thickness range, epitaxial films exhibit a strong variability in magnetic behavior that hinders their implementation in technological devices. Here, direct visualization and spectroscopy of the atomic structure of a nominally stoichiometric thin film, exhibiting a small damping factor of 3.0 ⋅ 10, reveals the occurrence of Y-excess octahedral antisite defects. The two-magnon strength is very small, Γ≈10 Oe, indicating a very low occurrence of scattering centers. Notably, the saturation magnetization, 4πM=2.10 (±0.01) kOe, is higher than the bulk value, in consistency with the suppression of magnetic moment in the minority octahedral sublattice by the observed antisite defects. Analysis of elemental concentration profiles across the substrate-film interface suggests that the Y-excess is originated from unbalanced cationic interdiffusion during the early growth stages