An evaluation of the accounting rate of return : evidence for Dutch quoted firms

Although the accounting rate of return (ARR) is traditionally regarded as an important profitability measure in ratio analysis, there has been relatively little theoretical and empirical analysis on its statistical properties and its intrinsic ability to explain market returns. This paper provides an empirical examination of the distributional properties and a time-series analysis of the ARR’s of listed Dutch companies for the years from 1978 to 1997. Furthermore we examine how the ARR is related to market return and risk. We investigate the distributional properties of the accounting rate of return. Our study confirms prior international research which concludes that ARR follows a non-normal distribution. Previous US and UK studies suggest that time series earnings or ARR can be characterized by a random walk or a mean-reverting process. The time series results of our sample are characterized by mean reversion. This paper extends the empirical research on ARR by deriving a panel data analysis that yields more reliable estimates. Researchers using US data found that the ARR was deficient as a representation of market returns and was not related to systematic risk. We find the opposite.

Malaria intervention scale-up in Africa : effectiveness predictions for health programme planning tools, based on dynamic transmission modelling

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the Spectrum health programme planning tool.; The dynamic Plasmodium falciparum transmission model OpenMalaria was used to simulate health effects of scale-up of insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage, indoor residual spraying (IRS), management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CM) and seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC) over a 10-year horizon, over a range of settings with stable endemic malaria. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) were used to summarize determinants of impact across a range of sub-Sahara African settings.; Selected (best) GLMs explained 94-97 % of variation in simulated post-intervention parasite infection prevalence, 86-97 % of variation in case incidence (three age groups, three 3-year horizons), and 74-95 % of variation in malaria mortality. For any given effective population coverage, CM and ITNs were predicted to avert most prevalent infections, cases and deaths, with lower impacts for IRS, and impacts of SMC limited to young children reached. Proportional impacts were larger at lower endemicity, and (except for SMC) largest in low-endemic settings with little seasonality. Incremental health impacts for a given coverage increase started to diminish noticeably at above ~40 % coverage, while in high-endemic settings, CM and ITNs acted in synergy by lowering endemicity. Vector control and CM, by reducing endemicity and acquired immunity, entail a partial rebound in malaria mortality among people above 5 years of age from around 5-7 years following scale-up. SMC does not reduce endemicity, but slightly shifts malaria to older ages by reducing immunity in child cohorts reached.; Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control

Electrostatic flat-top solitons near double layers and triple root structures in multispecies plasmas : how realistic are they?

Electrostatic flat-top solitons are a new acoustic-type nonlinear mode and found to be a generic feature accompanying the occurrence of double layers and/or triple root structures, in multispecies plasmas admitting the latter. Their existence domains can be parameterized by the difference between their velocities and the double layer or triple root velocities, but these velocity differences turn out to be extremely small, of the order 10 5 or less. The onset of their flat top character in the electrostatic potential is clearly seen in the corresponding electric field or charge density profiles. However, even at the limit of the numerical accuracy for vanishing velocity differences, their profiles are still soliton-like, very unlike those of double layers or triple root structures. So although the Sagdeev potential varies continuously as the structure velocity approaches that of the double layer or triple root structure, the character of the nonlinear modes changes in a discontinuous manner. For sufficiently wide flat-top solitons, the electric field signature looks very much like two unipolar signals with opposite polarities, where unipolar electric fields typically characterize double layers or triple root structures. We are not aware of flat-top solitons having been reported to date, and their extremely limited existence range raises the question of whether they may be observable at all, unless helped by a fortunate stroke of serendipity. This topic requires suitable numerical simulations to ascertain their stability and interaction properties

The story against smoking:An exploratory study into the processing and perceived effectiveness of narrative visual smoking warnings

Objectives: This study compared the effects of two types of health warnings on cigarette packages: 'narrative visual warnings', showing an image portraying people plus a corresponding slogan that could evoke a story-like interpretation, and 'non-narrative visual warnings' with non-narrative content (i.e. body parts). Moreover, the mechanisms underlying the effects of these health warnings were explored. Design: A within-participants experiment was conducted comparing narrative and non-narrative visual warnings. Path analyses were performed to investigate the relationship between the narrative concepts transportation and identification, the emotions evoked by the health warning and the perceived effectiveness of the message. Method: Participants (N = 200) were presented with one narrative warning and one non-narrative warning. After each warning, they answered questions on narrative perception, transportation, identification, emotions and perceived effectiveness. Results: The narrative warnings were seen as more story-like than the non-narrative warnings. There was a statistical trend for narrative warnings to be perceived as more effective than the non-narratives. The narrative warnings caused more transportation, fear, sadness, compassion and anger; the non-narrative warnings evoked more disgust and surprise. For the narrative warnings, both narrative concepts of transportation and identification were directly related to perceived effectiveness, and also indirectly via sadness. For the non-narrative warnings, transportation was related to perceived effectiveness, both directly and indirectly via disgust. Conclusion: Seeing a story in a still picture with a slogan helps to increase the effectiveness of the antismoking message. Both narrative and non-narrative visual warnings may persuade receivers directly, but also by the evoking of emotions, although the specific emotions responsible for the persuasive effects may differ

Cost-effective interventions for breast cancer, cervical cancer, and colorectal cancer : new results from WHO-CHOICE

Background: Following the adoption of the Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of NCDs 2013-2020, an update to the Appendix 3 of the action plan was requested by Member States in 2016, endorsed by the Seventieth World Health Assembly in May 2017 and provides a list of recommended NCD interventions. The main contribution of this paper is to present results of analyses identifying how decision makers can achieve maximum health gain using the cancer interventions listed in the Appendix 3. We also present methods used to calculate new WHO-CHOICE cost-effectiveness results for breast cancer, cervical cancer, and colorectal cancer in Southeast Asia and eastern sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: We used "Generalized Cost-Effectiveness Analysis" for our analysis which uses a hypothetical null reference case, where the impacts of all current interventions are removed, in order to identify the optimal package of interventions. All health system costs, regardless of payer, were included. Health outcomes are reported as the gain in healthy life years due to a specific intervention scenario and were estimated using a deterministic state-transition cohort simulation (Markov model). Results: Vaccination against human papillomavirus (two doses) for 9-13-year-old girls (in eastern sub-Saharan Africa) and HPV vaccination combined with prevention of cervical cancer by screening of women aged 30-49 years through visual inspection with acetic acid linked with timely treatment of pre-cancerous lesions (in Southeast Asia) were found to be the most cost effective interventions. For breast cancer, in both regions the treatment of breast cancer, stages I and II, with surgery ± systemic therapy, at 95% coverage, was found to be the most cost-effective intervention. For colorectal cancer, treatment of colorectal cancer, stages I and II, with surgery ± chemotherapy and radiotherapy, at 95% coverage, was found to be the most cost-effective intervention. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that cancer prevention and control interventions are cost-effective and can be implemented through a step-wise approach to achieve maximum health benefits. As the global community moves toward universal health coverage, this analysis can support decision makers in identifying a core package of cancer services, ensuring treatment and palliative care for all