Cyclical synchronization in the EMU along the financial crisis: An interpretation of the conflicting signals

[Abstract] We analyze how cyclical synchronization in the EMU evolved since the onset of the current financial crisis. The standard measures of cyclical correlation suggest that while the cycle of the euro area became more aligned with the cycles of other developed economies, the EMU itself apparently entered into a phase of cyclical divergence. We show that as a matter of fact the bulk of the member states remained closely aligned, and the seeming decline in synchronization is due to a few countries decoupling from the euro area. Next we present empirical evidence that the foundations that explain the evolution of the national cycles against the EMU aggregate through the crisis were already latent in 2007. Greece and Ireland deviate from the general pattern, the former because of its loose fiscal policy all along the period 2000-2007, and the latter due to the flexibility of its labor marke

Interest rate setting at the ECB: Individual preferences and collective decision making

We investigate whether the members of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank take into account the specific economic conditions of their states of origin, to set the interest rates for the euro area. Testing the national-based view against the Europeanist perspective is a challenging issue, because voting inside the Governing Council is secret, and the final outcome depends both on the individual preferences and the procedures followed by the Governing Council to arrive at a decision. Accordingly, we model interest rate setting as a two-stage process: first, each member of the Governing Council sets his/her preferred rate, and next the Governing Council meets and decides the actual figure. Our empirical analysis shows that domestic developments play a major role in determining the preferred interest rate of the each member; and that some members exert agenda setting power, that precludes some interest rate policies to be considered at the meeting

Análisis empírico del ciclo económico con un modelo factorial dinámico con cambio de régimen

En este trabajo sostenemos que el análisis empírico del ciclo económico se debe apoyar en un modelo factorial dinámico con cambio de régimen, en la línea de Diebold y Rudebusch. Entre las ventajas de este enfoque respecto a otras alternativas podemos destacar: integra en un marco coherente la construcción de indicadores sintéticos medidos en escala continua y la determinación y fechado de las fases cíclicas; plantea el problema en un contexto multivariante, haciendo uso de toda la información existente en el sistema; y capta la no linealidad en las variables observables inducida por comportamientos asimétricos a lo largo del ciclo. La metodología se ilustra con una aplicación al ciclo económico europeo

Políticas de estabilización y efecto Crowding-Out: un análisis empírico para el caso español

Tesis doctoral inédita. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Cienicas Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Economía Aplicada, 198

Indices mensuales de valor unitario del comercio exterior de Galicia: metodología y principales resultados

En este trabajo se presentan la metodología y las principales características de los índices de valor unitario (IVU) del comercio exterior de Galicia, que se han elaborado utilizando la misma información estadística de base y metodología que la empleada para elaborar los índices del conjunto del Estado. Se comprueba que el análisis del comercio regional en términos nominales puede estar distorsionado y no reflejar las tendencias reales de importaciones y exportaciones; y que el empleo de IVU estatales para deflactar datos regionales no es recomendable con carácter general