The credibility of health economic models for health policy decision-making: the case of population screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm

<i>Objectives</i>: To review health economic models of population screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) among elderly males and assess their credibility for informing decision-making. <i>Methods</i>: A literature review identified health economic models of ultrasound screening for AAA. For each model focussing on population screening in elderly males, model structure and input parameter values were critically appraised using published good practice guidelines for decision analytic models. <i>Results</i>: Twelve models published between 1989 and 2003 were identified. Converting costs to a common currency and base year, substantial variability in cost-effectiveness results were revealed. Appraisals carried out for the nine models focusing on population screening showed differences in their complexity, with the simpler models generating results most favourable to screening. Eight of the nine models incorporated two or more simplifying structural assumptions favouring screening; uncertainty surrounding these assumptions was not investigated by any model. Quality assessments on a small number of parameters revealed input values varied between models, methods used to identify and incorporate input data were often not described, and few sensitivity analyses were reported. <i>Conclusions</i>: Large variation exists in the cost-effectiveness results generated by AAA screening models. The substantial number of factors potentially contributing to such disparities means that reconciliation of model results is impossible. In addition, poor reporting of methods makes it difficult to identify the most plausible and thus most useful model of those developed

Earth radiation budget measurements from satellites and their interpretation for climate modeling and studies

The annual and seasonal averaged Earth atmosphere radiation budgets derived from the most complete set of satellite observations available are presented. The budgets were derived from a composite of 48 monthly mean radiation budget maps. Annually and seasonally averaged radiation budgets are presented as global averages and zonal averages. The geographic distribution of the various radiation budget quantities is described. The annual cycle of the radiation budget was analyzed and the annual variability of net flux was shown to be largely dominated by the regular semi and annual cycles forced by external Earth-Sun geometry variations. Radiative transfer calculations were compared to the observed budget quantities and surface budgets were additionally computed with particular emphasis on discrepancies that exist between the present computations and previous surface budget estimates

(P1-28) Primary Health Care (PHC) Approach in Emergencies and Disasters

This presentation will focus on outlining the issues and challenges to developing a framework for a PHC approach for emergencies and disasters. The emphasis will be how the use of the PHC principles to achieve equity and social justice can improve disaster response. These approaches include; universal coverage/equity, community participation, intersectoral collaboration and the use of appropriate technology. Discussion will include; the revitalization of PHC and the role of PHC in emergencies and the challenges of the PHC approach in emergencies. Responding to emergencies from the perspective of disaster risk management, community based health work force and self care will be reviewed. Finally, pre-emergency preparedness focusing on community based benchmarks, community based disaster management planning and strengthening health systems based on PHC will be discusse

Scaling and data collapse for the mean exit time of asset prices

We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a pre-factor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both a two-state and a three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.Comment: REVTeX 4, 11 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, submitted for publicatio

Detection of the United States Neisseria meningitidis urethritis clade in the United Kingdom, August and December 2019 - emergence of multiple antibiotic resistance calls for vigilance.

Since 2015 in the United States (US), the US Neisseria meningitidis urethritis clade (US_NmUC) has caused a large multistate outbreak of urethritis among heterosexual males. Its 'parent' strain caused numerous outbreaks of invasive meningococcal disease among men who have sex with men in Europe and North America. We highlight the arrival and dissemination of US_NmUC in the United Kingdom and the emergence of multiple antibiotic resistance. Surveillance systems should be developed that include anogenital meningococci

Stochastic modelling of intermittent scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations

Single-point measurements of fluctuations in the scrape-off layer of magnetized plasmas are generally found to be dominated by large-amplitude bursts which are associated with radial motion of blob-like structures. A stochastic model for these fluctuations is presented, with the plasma density given by a random sequence of bursts with a fixed wave form. Under very general conditions, this model predicts a parabolic relation between the skewness and kurtosis moments of the plasma fluctuations. In the case of exponentially distributed burst amplitudes and waiting times, the probability density function for the fluctuation amplitudes is shown to be a Gamma distribution with the scale parameter given by the average burst amplitude and the shape parameter given by the ratio of the burst duration and waiting times.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figur

Mandarin Market Segments Based on Consumer Sensory Evaluations

Ninety-five consumers in seven grocery stores tasted unidentified peeled sections of three mandarins (a tangerine, a satsuma, and a clementine), and provided demographic and purchase information. Forty-four percent of the respondents preferred tangerines, 34 percent satsumas, and 22 percent clementines. The probability of preferring each of type of mandarin was estimated from internal quality analysis of paired samples, as well as from demographic and purchase responses. Model simulations were used to recommend harvest standards for satsumas based on Brix-to-acid ratios.Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Mode-Locked Two-Photon States

The concept of mode locking in laser is applied to a two-photon state with frequency entanglement. Cavity enhanced parametric down-conversion is found to produce exactly such a state. The mode-locked two-photon state exhibits a comb-like correlation function. An unbalanced Hong-Ou-Mandel type interferometer is used to measure the correlation function. A revival of the typical interference dip is observed. We will discuss schemes for engineering of quantum states in time domain.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure