Análisis de los intervalos de confianza en las tendencias en las diferentes bases de datos climáticas globales

Ponencia presentada en: XI Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Cartagena entre el 17 y el 19 de octubre de 2018.[ES]Es inequívoco que durante la segunda mitad del siglo XX las temperaturas a nivel global sufrieron un fuerte incremento, demostrado por diferentes pruebas estadísticas. En este trabajo se ha analizado las tendencias y la evolución del intervalo de confianza de la serie 1913-2012 en el hemisferio norte, hemisferio sur y a nivel global de las distintas bases de datos a través de la herramienta Makesens (Instituto Meteorológico Finés). En el último cuarto de siglo XX y comienzos del siglo XXI la tasa de calentamiento y la significación, en diferentes bases de datos y hemisferios, sufre un descenso que podría ser el comienzo del hiato.[EN]It is clear that during the second half of the 20th century the temperatures around the world suffered a strong increase, indicated by different statistical tests. In this study has been analyzed the trends and the confidence intervals evolution of the 1913-2012 time-series on the north hemispheric, south hemispheric and global of the different climatic data base through Makesens tool (Finish Meteorological Service). On the last quarter of 20th century and first years of 21st century the warming rate and signification, in different data set and hemispheres, suffer a decline that could be the start of the hiatus or Pause

Caracterización supercelular en España: resultados preliminares

Màster de Meteorologia, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2019-2020, Tutors: María del Carmen Llasat Botija, Yago Martín GonzálezEn el presente trabajo se analiza la influuencia de los tipos de tiempo (campo de altura de geopotencial de 500 hPa) en la formación de supercélulas en España y los casos de estudios de posibles supercélulas en Campillos (Málaga) y Campo de Belchite (Zaragoza). El estudio se ha realizado empleando la base de datos de Supercélulas en España, el reanálisis del National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) y el modelo IP-WRF. Los resultados principales indican que destacan tres tipos de tiempo: TT3, TT7 y TT10, que tienen en común que hay difluencia en altura aportando el forzamiento dinámico necesario para la formación de supercélulas a través del tránsito de ondas cortas o la parte delantera de una vaguada sobre la vertical de la península ibérica. A título de ejemplo se estudian dos casos que muestran que los valores convectivos de la supercélula del 26 de agosto de 2019 y de la posible supercélula del 20 de julio de 2018 conformaron un entorno proclive para la convección organizada. Finalmente, es necesario realizar una interpretación cuidadosa de la distribución espacial de las supercélulas por tipo de tiempo debido al escaso número de episodios en la base de datos

Análisis de la tendencia de la temperatura promedio anual hemisféricas (1913-2012) mediante el empleo de ventanas móviles.

En el presente Trabajo Fin de Grado (TFG) se analiza la evolución de las temperaturas promedio anual en el hemisferio norte y hemisferio sur en versión tierra+océano durante el período 1913-2012. El estudio se ha realizado empleando tres bases de datos: Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Goddard Institute for Spatial Studies (GISS) y National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), y los objetivos generales del trabajo han sido analizar la evolución de la tasa de la temperatura media anual, detectar las diferencias entre hemisferios y analizar el intervalo de confianza de la tendencia y evaluar el período mínimo en el que la tendencia refleje señales climáticas. El análisis de tendencia, significación y signo se ha realizado mediante ventanas móviles decrecientes de 1913-2012 a 1998-2012, mediante el estadístico de Mann-Kendall y la tasa se ha calculado por el estimador de pendiente de Sen. Los resultados principales indican que ha existido un aumento de la temperatura media en el período analizado; que el máximo aumento se ha detectado en el período 1992-2012 siendo superior en el hemisferio norte que en el hemisferio sur; en los 20 años finales del período analizado las tendencias no son significativas en el hemisferio sur y en el hemisferio norte ha dejado de aumentar. Finalmente, el análisis de la evolución de los intervalos de confianza de las tasas sugiere que se necesita períodos superiores a 30 años para validar que la tasa de las tendencias de las temperaturas refleje una señal climática, pues con un menor número de años la variación del rango del intervalo supera más de un grado

Testing very high-resolution simulations in HARMONIE-AROME

Presentación realizada en: 44th EWGLAM & 29nd SRNWP Meetings celebrado del 26 al 29 de septiembre de 2019 en Bruselas

Remote Interactions between tropical cyclones: The case of Hurricane Michael and Leslie’s high predictability uncertainty

The study explores Hurricane Michael’s impact on Hurricane Leslie’s trajectory predictability using ECMWF and NCEP ensemble systems. A clustering method focused on tropical cyclones is used to identify potential paths for Leslie: Cluster 1 accurately predicted Leslie’s direction towards the Iberian Peninsula, whereas Clusters 2 and 3 indicated a southern recurve near the Canary Islands. Analysis of potential vorticity and irrotational wind at upper levels showed a significant interaction between Michael, ridge, and trough across the jet stream from +12 h after initialization. Cluster 1 showed a stronger Michael promoting upper-level wind divergence greatest, modifying the jet stream configuration around the ridge and downstream. Alterations in the jet stream’s configuration, functioning as a waveguide, propagated downstream, guiding Leslie towards the Iberian Peninsula. Clusters 2 and 3 indicated the trough’s failure to incorporate Leslie, resulting in a recurve of the trajectory around the Azores anticyclone. This research enhances comprehension of the interaction between two tropical cyclones via synoptic Rossby wave flow. Moreover, the conceptual framework can aid operational meteorologists in identifying the sources of uncertainty, particularly in track forecasts under synoptic conditions analogous to those examined in this study.This work was partially supported by the research project PID2019-105306RB-I00/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 (IBERCANES), and the two ECMWF Special Projects (SPESMART and SPESVALE). Mauricio López-Reyes extends his sincere gratitude to Professor Héctor Ulloa-Godínez from the Institute of Astronomy and Meteorology at the University of Guadalajara for his invaluable support. He also acknowledges Instituto Frontera A.C. for their partial funding of this work. C. Calvo-Sancho acknowledges the grant awarded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation - FPI Program (PRE2020-092343)

Horizontal kinetic energy analysis of tropical transition simulations with the WRF and HARMONIE-AROME models

Four tropical transition (TT) events in the North Atlantic basin are simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the HARMONIE-AROME (HAR) models to study the main features of the horizontal kinetic energy (HKE) spectra of these kinds of high-energetic atmospheric system. Though most of the times similar results are obtained with both models, HAR shows a more intense filtering and numerical dissipation, whereas WRF tends to represent overenergized spectra in the synoptic scale and especially at smaller wavelengths. Predictability is dissimilar for the four TTs studied due to the different spectral curve slope obtained for each case, ranging from unlimited to very poor predictability at synoptic scale.This work is funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy under the research project PID2019-105306RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (IBERCANES)

Assessment of HARMONIE-AROME in the simulation of the convective activity associated to a subtropical transition using satellite data

Producción CientíficaSubtropical transition events (STT) are a challenge for forecasting and research due to the hybrid characteristics they give to the cyclones. The ability and skillfulness of the HARMONIE-AROME model to reproduce the cloud structure and convection associated to the October 2014 STT is here evaluated. Brightness temperature, cloud top height and accumulated precipitation are assessed against satellite data using traditional skill scores and object-based techniques specific to forecasting spatial evaluation. The results present differences in the simulation of the cyclone between the periods before and after the transition. They also show a very good performance of the model in the location of the events and a good simulation of the intensity of the variables. The performance is sub-optimal for the estimation of the sizes of the convective objects. Brightness temperature and cloud top heights yield very good results in general, with a slight overestimation in both cases. However, the model struggles to capture the accumulated precipitation. There is scarce work evaluating the HARMONIE-AROME model in this type of events; nevertheless, the results are in line with those produced by the simulations with other numerical models. The overall performance of the model is very adequate, although it might be hindered by the internal stability of the model produced by the deep-convection computation.Agencia Estatal de Investigación (PID2019-105306RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España - FPI program (PRE2020-092343

Assessing the performance of the HARMONIE-AROME and WRF-ARW numerical models in North Atlantic Tropical Transitions

Producción CientíficaTropical cyclones (TCs) can develop as a result of the tropical transition (TT) process, which occurs when an extratropical cyclone (EC) begins to exhibit tropical characteristics, forming a TC. In this study, four TT processes that lead to a hurricane structure [Delta (2005), Ophelia (2017), Leslie (2018), and Theta (2020)] are evaluated using two high-resolution numerical models (WRF and HARMONIE-AROME). Both tracks and intensities of the cyclones are assessed by comparing the simulated minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed to an observational dataset. Moreover, a spatial verification is performed by comparing the MSG-SEVIRI brightness temperature (BT) and accumulated precipitation (IMERG) to the corresponding simulations accomplished by both models. Analyzing the track results, the WRF model, on average, outstands HARMONIE-AROME. However, it is the HARMONIE-AROME model that performs better than WRF when reproducing the intensity of these cyclones. Concerning the BT spatial validation, HARMONIE-AROME slightly outperformed WRF when reproducing the cyclone's structure but failed when simulating the BT amplitude. Besides, both models achieved a nearly perfect cyclone location. In terms of accumulated precipitation results, the HARMONIE-AROME model overestimates the larger structures while underestimating the smaller ones, whereas the WRF model underestimates the bigger structures, being poorly located by both models. Although it is difficult to establish which numerical model performs better, the overall results show an outstanding of the HARMONIE-AROME model over the WRF model when simulating TT processes.IBERCANES (Project PID2019-105306RB-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033)Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España - FPI program (PRE2020-092343

Identification of patients at risk of non-adherence to oral antirheumatic drugs in rheumatoid arthritis using the Compliance Questionnaire in Rheumatology: an ARCO sub-study

[Abstract] The ARCO study (Study on Adherence of Rheumatoid Arthritis patients to SubCutaneous and Oral Drugs), a multicenter, non-interventional retrospective study, was primarily designed to assess the percentage of patients [aged ≥18 years with an established rheumatoid arthritis (RA) diagnosis] with non-adherence to prescribed subcutaneous biologicals. This paper reports data for the secondary objective from a subset of patients, namely to evaluate non-adherence to prescribed oral antirheumatic drugs in RA patients in Spain using the validated Compliance Questionnaire Rheumatology (CQR). Patients also completed the Morisky–Green Medication Adherence Questionnaire, Beliefs about Medicines Questionnaire, and a questionnaire (developed and validated in Spain) on patient satisfaction with RA treatment and preferences. A total of 271 patients (76.7% females; mean age 55.6 years) were being treated with oral drugs for RA, of which 234 completed the CQR questionnaire. Non-adherence was reported in 49/234 (20.9%) patients. The proportion of non-adherence in younger patients (aged ≤48 years; 37.5%) was double that recorded in patients aged >48 years (p = 0.006). Patients with a perception of lower efficacy also had a higher risk of non-adherence (p = 0.012). Multivariable analysis showed that younger age and male gender were independently associated with risk of non-adherence. There was only slight agreement between the CQR and Morisky–Green assessment tools (kappa coefficient = 0.186), possibly reflecting the fact that both questionnaires measure slightly different aspects of medication adherence. In conclusion, one out of five RA patients was identified as at risk for non-adherence with the CQR, and this was more frequent in younger patients and in males

Environments conductive to tropical transitions in the North Atlantic: Anthropogenic climate change influence study

Tropical cyclones can have different precursors, but most of them affecting Europe have a tropical transition origin and develop in autumn. This research focuses on analyzing changes on favorable environments for tropical transition development in the North Atlantic (NATL) basin for this season under the Anthropogenic Climate Change (ACC) effect. Comparisons between the climatology of some relevant variables related to tropical cyclogenesis have been computed for different periods, considering the ACC effect. For this purpose, the SSP5–8.5 scenario from an adapted version of the EC-Earth3 climatic model has been used. The combination of the obtained results is indicative of a NATL environment tropicalization in response to ACC, weightier for the end of the XXI century. Therefore, the NATL environment will be more prone to tropical transition development in the future, which is of particular concern since tropical cyclones are notorious for their lethality and economic impact worldwide.This work was supported by the Spanish research project PID2019-105306RB-I00/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 (IBERCANES) and the ECMWF Special Projects SPESMART and SPESVALE. This work is supported by the Interdisciplinary Mathematics Institute of the Complutense University of Madrid. C. Calvo-Sancho acknowledges the grant awarded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation-FPI program (PRE2020-092343)