Presentación realizada en: 44th EWGLAM & 29nd SRNWP Meetings celebrado del 26 al 29 de septiembre de 2019 en Bruselas

Calvo Sancho, Carlos

Calvo Sánchez, Francisco Javier

González-Alemán, Juan Jesús

Viana Jiménez, Samuel

English

Agencia Estatal de Meteorología

Testing very high-resolution simulations in HARMONIE-AROMEJuan Jesús González-Alemán (1)Samuel Viana (1)Javier Calvo (1)Carlos Calvo-Sancho (2)1 Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMet)2 University of Valladolid/Complutense University of Madrid44th EWGLAM and 29th SRNWP Meeting, 26-29 Sept 2022, BrusselsTesting very high-resolution simulations in HARMONIE-AROME• Introduction:• Very high-resolution/sub-kilometric simulations (VHR) are becoming more and more frequent thanks to the increase of modelling knowledge and computational resources. • Due to this fast progress, it then becomes essential to verify these simulations in the representation of high impact weather.• In this work, we try to test this kind of simulations on two specific problems which are highly sensible to increasing resolution: • Convective activity induced by complex terrain, through atmosphere-orography interactions. • A tropical-like cyclone/hurricane (Medicane Ianos, 2020) over the Mediterranean Sea. AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 2Testing very high-resolution simulations in HARMONIE-AROME• Introduction – Case 1:• The thunderstorm developed in the Canary Islands was not “seen” by the operational HARMONIE-AROME run but parallel testing VHR runs could simulate it.AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 3Testing very high-resolution simulations in HARMONIE-AROME• Introduction – Case 2:• Ianos was a anomalous Medicane that impacted the eastern Mediterranean in September 2020, especially Greece, leaving severe damage.• The first medicane to robustly show tropical characteristics and the strongest on record (~984 hPa, ~44 m/s, ~644 mm).• Operational forecasts of Ianos were not highly valuable due to itspeculiarities: very intense and small scale.• Motivation for Ianos case study: • It hasn’t been done before for a medicane• ECMWF Severe Weather Event Catalogue• Participation Medcyclone EU COST Action (model intercomparison)  • Climate change impact on medicanesAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 4Convective activity in the Canary Islands• Methodology:• VHR experimental runs (1.25km, 1km and 500m) vs operational run (2.5km) in the Canary Islands:• AIC: OpAssimilation | Res: 2.5km | Nlatlon: 576x480 | Tstep: 75| Grid: Linear• AIC125: ExpAssimilation | Res: 1.25km| Nlatlon: 1152x960 | Tstep: 45 | Grid: Linear• AICs1km: ExpDynamical adaptation from IFS | Res: 1km | Nlatlon: 576x480 | Tstep: 30| Grid: Linear• AICs500m: ExpDynamical adaptation from AIC | Res: 500m | Nlatlon: 1152x960 | Tstep: 15 | Grid: CuadraticAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 5Convective activity in the Canary Islands• Observations:AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 628 JAN 00z                                             28 JAN 03zConvective activity in the Canary Islands• Models:AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 7AIC AIC125AICs1km AICs500m28 JAN 09zConvective activity in the Canary Islands• Models:AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 828 JAN 09zConvective activity in the Canary Islands• Models:AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 928 JAN 09zConvective activity in the Canary Islands• Models:AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 1028 JAN 00zMedicane Ianos• Introduction:• Testing BCs, domain and resolution in simulations for Medicane/Hurricane Ianos.AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 11Medicane Ianos• Introduction:• Forecast for Ianos where quite variable, from LAM models predicting a very intense cyclone and global models a more weak cyclone.AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 12Medicane IanosAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 13Medicane Ianos• Introduction:• Impact of IanosAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 14Medicane Ianos• MEDIterranean hurriCANES (medicanes) are intense cyclones that acquire tropical characteristics, associated with extreme winds and rainfall, thus posing a serious natural hazard to populated areas along Mediterranean coasts. • Understanding how medicanes will change with global warming is essential given the increase in sea surface temperatures expected over the Mediterranean Sea.AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 15Medicane Ianos• Why important to investigate NWP behaviour?AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 16Medicane Ianos• Why important to investigate NWP behaviour?• We found that despite a decrease in frequency, Medicanes potentially become more hazardous with global warming, lasting longer and producing stronger winds and rainfall.• These changes are associated with a more robust hurricane-like (possibly cat 2) structure and are mainly confined to autumn. • Thus, continued anthropogenic warming will increase the risks associated with medicanes even in an intermediate scenario (RCP4.5), with potential natural and socioeconomic consequences.AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 17Medicane IanosAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 18Medicane IanosAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 19Medicane IanosAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 20Medicane IanosAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 21Medicane Ianos• Methodology:• Dynamical adaptation (from IFS analysis)• 24 hours of forecasts from 17/09 00z• Resolution1: IFS+HARM 2km Big vs IFS+HARM 1km Big• Resolution2: HARM2km+HARM 1km Small vs HARM2km+HARM 500m Small• BCs: IFS+HARM 1km Small vs HARM2km+HARM 1km Small• Domain size: IFS+HARM 1km Small vs IFS+HARM 1km BigAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 22Medicane IanosAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 23Medicane Ianos• Results – pseudo BTs:• Influence of resolution (2km vs 1km)241700 + 21hMSG SEVIRI IR10.8 (4km)2km 1km Medicane Ianos• Results – MSLP+Wind:• Influence of resolution (2km vs 1km)AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 251700 + 21h2km 1km Medicane Ianos• Results – pseudo BTs:• Influence of resolution (1km vs 500m)261700 + 21hMSG SEVIRI IR10.8 (4km)1km                                                                                                                         500m Medicane Ianos• Results – MSLP+Wind:• Influence of resolution (1km vs 500m)AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 271700 + 21h1km                                                                                                                         500m Medicane Ianos• Results – pseudo BTs:• Influence of domain (Big vs Small 1km)281700 + 21hMSG SEVIRI IR10.8 (4km)BIG                                                                                                                       SMALL Medicane Ianos• Results – MSLP+Wind:• Influence of domain (Big vs Small 1km)AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 291700 + 21hBIG                                                                                                                       SMALL Medicane Ianos• Results – pseudo IR10.8 Brightness Temperature:• Influence of BCs (IFS vs HARM 1km)301700 + 21hMSG SEVIRI IR10.8 (4km)IFS HARM Medicane Ianos• Results – MSLP+Wind:• Influence of BCs (IFS vs HARM 1km)AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 311700 + 21hIFS HARM Medicane Ianos• Results - Influence of SSTs:• CERRA (5.5km) reanalysisAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 3216/09 18z 18/09 03zMedicane Ianos• Results:• Influence of TCs on SSTsAEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 33Medicane Ianos• Results - Influence of SSTs:• HARMONIE-AROME (fixed SSTs)AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 34Conclusions• VHR simulations improved the forecast of a T-storm resulted from atmospheric flow mesoscale interactions with the orography.• Medicane/Hurricane Ianos is not affected much -in track- by domain, BCs and resolution changes.• Most of the differences are found in the intensity: 2km runs simulates “better” cyclone. VHR over-intensifies the cyclone.• It could be more important to simulate atmosphere-ocean interactions within the cyclone structure. Ianos could be the first medicane to produce upwelling.AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 35Future outlook• Verify these simulations with other data sources and local data, implementing also the spatial verification of convective activity (in HARP).• Use of simulated BTs from RTTOV model.• Testing coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations. Investigation of upwelling.• Use of data assimilation.AEMET, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 36Thanks for your attention! Questions?

Testing very high-resolution simulations in HARMONIE-AROME

https://repositorio.aemet.es/bitstream/20.500.11765/13968/1/VHR_HARMONIE_AROME_EWGLAM22_JJGA.pdf

Testing very high-resolution simulations in HARMONIE-AROME

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