Sentinel site community surveillance of mortality and nutritional status in southwestern Central African Republic, 2010.

BACKGROUND: During 2010, a community-based, sentinel site prospective surveillance system measured mortality, acute malnutrition prevalence, and the coverage of a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) intervention in four sous-préfectures of Lobaye prefecture in southwestern Central African Republic. We describe this surveillance system and its evaluation. METHODS: Within 24 randomly selected sentinel sites, home visitors performed a census, weekly demographic surveillance of births, deaths, and in- or out-migration, and weekly anthropometry on a sample of children. We evaluated the system through various methods including capture-recapture analysis and repeat census. RESULTS: The system included 18,081 people at baseline. Over 32 weeks, the crude death rate was 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.8-1.2) deaths per 10,000 person-days (35 deaths per 1,000 person-years), with higher values during the rainy season. The under-5 death rate was approximately double. The prevalence of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) was 3.0% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0), almost half featuring kwashiorkor signs. The coverage of SAM treatment was 29.1%. The system detected >90% of deaths, and >90% of death reports appeared valid. However, demographic surveillance yielded discrepancies with the census and an implausible rate of population growth, while the predictive value of SAM classification was around 60%. DISCUSSION: We found evidence of a chronic health crisis in this remote region. MSF's intervention coverage improved progressively. Mortality data appeared valid, but inaccuracies in population denominators and anthropometric measurements were noted. Similar systems could be implemented in other remote settings and acute emergencies, but with certain technical improvements

Inpatient signs and symptoms and factors associated with death in children aged 5 years and younger admitted to two Ebola management centres in Sierra Leone, 2014: a retrospective cohort study

Background Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) opened Ebola management centres (EMCs) in Sierra Leone in Kailahun in June, 2014, and Bo in September, 2014. Case fatality in the west African Ebola virus disease epidemic has been highest in children younger than 5 years. Clinical data on outcomes can provide important evidence to guide future management. However, such data on children are scarce and disaggregated clinical data across all ages in this epidemic have focussed on symptoms reported on arrival at treatment facilities, rather than symptoms and signs observed during admission. We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of children aged 5 years and younger admitted to the MSF EMCs in Bo and Kailahun, and any associations between these characteristics and mortality. Methods In a retrospective cohort study, we included data from children aged 5 years and younger with laboratoryconfi rmed Ebola virus disease admitted to EMCs between June and December, 2014. We described epidemiological, demographic, and clinical characteristics and viral load (measured using Ebola virus cycle thresholds [Ct]), and assessed their association with death using Cox regression modelling. Findings We included 91 children in analysis; 52 died (57·1%). Case fatality was higher in children aged less than 2 years (76·5% [26/34]) than those aged 2–5 years (45·6% [26/57]; adjusted HR 3·5 [95% CI 1·5–8·5]) and in those with high (Ct<25) versus low (Ct≥25) viral load (81·8% [18/22] vs 45·9% [28/61], respectively; adjusted HR 9·2 [95% CI 3·8–22·5]). Symptoms observed during admission included: weakness 74·7% (68); fever 70·8% (63/89); distress 63·7% (58); loss of appetite 60·4% (55); diarrhoea 59·3% (54); and cough 52·7% (48). At admission, 25% (19/76) of children were afebrile. Signs signifi cantly associated with death were fever, vomiting, and diarrhoea. Hiccups, bleeding, and confusion were observed only in children who died. Interpretation This description of the clinical features of Ebola virus disease over the duration of illness in children aged 5 years and younger shows symptoms associated with death and a high prevalence of distress, with implications for clinical management. Collection and analysis of age-specifi c data on Ebola is very important to ensure that the specifi c vulnerabilities of children are addressed

Management of diabetes and associated costs in a complex humanitarian setting in the Democratic Republic of Congo: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to evaluate an Integrated Diabetic Clinic within a Hospital Outpatient Department (IDC-OPD) in a complex humanitarian setting in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo. Specific objectives were to: (1) analyse diabetes intermediate clinical and programmatic outcomes (blood pressure (BP)/glycaemic control, visit volume and frequency); (2) explore the association of key insecurity and related programmatic events with these outcomes; and (3) describe incremental IDC-OPD programme costs. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis of routine programmatic data collected from January 2014 to February 2017; analysis of programme costs for 2014/2015. SETTING: Outpatient diabetes programme in Mweso hospital, supported by Médecins sans Frontières, in North Kivu, Demographic Republic of Congo. PARTICIPANTS: Diabetes patients attending IDC-OPD. OUTCOME MEASURES: Intermediate clinical and programmatic outcome trends (BP/ glycaemic control; visit volume/frequency); incremental programme costs. RESULTS: Of 243 diabetes patients, 44.6% were women, median age was 45 (IQR 32-56); 51.4% were classified type 2. On introduction of IDC-OPD, glucose control improved and patient volume and visit interval increased. During insecurity, control rates were initially maintained by a nurse-provided, scaled-back service, while patient volume and visit interval decreased. Following service suspension due to drug stock-outs, patients were less likely to achieve control, improving on service resumption. Total costs decreased 16% from 2014 (€36 573) to 2015 (€30 861). Annual cost per patient dropped from €475 in 2014 to €214 in 2015 due to reduced supply costs and increased patient numbers. CONCLUSIONS: In a chronic conflict setting, we documented that control of diabetes intermediate outcomes was achievable during stable periods. During insecure periods, a simplified, nurse-led model maintained control rates until drug stock-outs occurred. Incremental per patient annual costs were lower than chronic HIV care costs in low-income settings. Future operational research should define a simplified diabetes care package including emergency preparedness

The factors affecting household transmission dynamics and community compliance with Ebola control measures: a mixed-methods study in a rural village in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Little is understood of Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission dynamics and community compliance with control measures over time. Understanding these interactions is essential if interventions are to be effective in future outbreaks. We conducted a mixed-methods study to explore these factors in a rural village that experienced sustained EVD transmission in Kailahun District, Sierra Leone. METHODS: We reconstructed transmission dynamics using a cross-sectional survey conducted in April 2015, and cross-referenced our results with surveillance, burial, and Ebola Management Centre (EMC) data. Factors associated with EVD transmission were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Following the survey, qualitative semi-structured interviews explored views of community informants and households. RESULTS: All households (n = 240; 1161 individuals) participated in the survey. 29 of 31 EVD probable/confirmed cases died (93·5% case fatality rate); six deaths (20·6%) had been missed by other surveillance systems. Transmission over five generations lasted 16 weeks. Although most households had ≤5 members there was a significant increase in risk of Ebola in households with > 5 members. Risk of EVD was also associated with older age. Cases were spatially clustered; all occurred in 15 households. EVD transmission was better understood when the community experience started to concord with public health messages being given. Perceptions of contact tracing changed from invading privacy and selling people to ensuring community safety. Burials in plastic bags, without female attendants or prayer, were perceived as dishonourable. Further reasons for low compliance were low EMC survival rates, family perceptions of a moral duty to provide care to relatives, poor communication with the EMC, and loss of livelihoods due to quarantine. Compliance with response measures increased only after the second generation, coinciding with the implementation of restrictive by-laws, return of the first survivor, reduced contact with dead bodies, and admission of patients to the EMC. CONCLUSIONS: Transmission occurred primarily in a few large households, with prolonged transmission and a high death toll. Return of a survivor to the village and more effective implementation of control strategies coincided with increased compliance to control measures, with few subsequent cases. We propose key recommendations for management of EVD outbreaks based on this experience

The factors affecting household transmission dynamics and community compliance with Ebola control measures: a mixed-methods study in a rural village in Sierra Leone

Background: Little is understood of Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission dynamics and community compliance with control measures over time. Understanding these interactions is essential if interventions are to be effective in future outbreaks. We conducted a mixed-methods study to explore these factors in a rural village that experienced sustained EVD transmission in Kailahun District, Sierra Leone. Methods: We reconstructed transmission dynamics using a cross-sectional survey conducted in April 2015, and cross-referenced our results with surveillance, burial, and Ebola Management Centre (EMC) data. Factors associated with EVD transmission were assessed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Following the survey, qualitative semi-structured interviews explored views of community informants and households. Results: All households (n = 240; 1161 individuals) participated in the survey. 29 of 31 EVD probable/confirmed cases died (93·5% case fatality rate); six deaths (20·6%) had been missed by other surveillance systems. Transmission over five generations lasted 16 weeks. Although most households had ≤5 members there was a significant increase in risk of Ebola in households with > 5 members. Risk of EVD was also associated with older age. Cases were spatially clustered; all occurred in 15 households. EVD transmission was better understood when the community experience started to concord with public health messages being given. Perceptions of contact tracing changed from invading privacy and selling people to ensuring community safety. Burials in plastic bags, without female attendants or prayer, were perceived as dishonourable. Further reasons for low compliance were low EMC survival rates, family perceptions of a moral duty to provide care to relatives, poor communication with the EMC, and loss of livelihoods due to quarantine. Compliance with response measures increased only after the second generation, coinciding with the implementation of restrictive by-laws, return of the first survivor, reduced contact with dead bodies, and admission of patients to the EMC. Conclusions: Transmission occurred primarily in a few large households, with prolonged transmission and a high death toll. Return of a survivor to the village and more effective implementation of control strategies coincided with increased compliance to control measures, with few subsequent cases. We propose key recommendations for management of EVD outbreaks based on this experience.MSF funded this study as part of emergency response activities

Delivery of an Ebola Virus-Positive Stillborn Infant in a Rural Community Health Center, Sierra Leone, 2015.

We report the case of an Ebola virus (EBOV) RNA-negative pregnant woman who delivered an EBOV RNA-positive stillborn infant at a community health center in rural Sierra Leone, 1 month after the mother's last possible exposure. The mother was later found to be immunoglobulins M and G positive indicating previous infection. The apparent absence of Ebola symptoms and not recognizing that the woman had previous contact with an Ebola patient led health workers performing the delivery to wear only minimal personal protection, potentially exposing them to a high risk of EBOV infection. This case emphasizes the importance of screening for epidemiological risk factors as well as classic and atypical symptoms of Ebola when caring for pregnant women, even once they have passed the typical time frame for exposure and incubation expected in nonpregnant adults. It also illustrates the need for health-care workers to use appropriate personal protection equipment when caring for pregnant women in an Ebola setting

Clinical and epidemiological performance of WHO Ebola case definitions: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease case definition is a crucial surveillance tool to detect suspected cases for referral and as a screening tool for clinicians to support admission and laboratory testing decisions at Ebola health facilities. We aimed to assess the performance of the WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions and other screening scores. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science for studies published in English between June 13, 1978, and Jan 14, 2020. We included studies that estimated the sensitivity and specificity of WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions, clinical and epidemiological characteristics (symptoms at admission and contact history), and predictive risk scores against the reference standard (laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease). Summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity were calculated using bivariate and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (when four or more studies provided data) or random-effects meta-analysis (fewer than four studies provided data). FINDINGS: We identified 2493 publications, of which 14 studies from four countries (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Angola) were included in the analysis. 12 021 people with suspected disease were included, of whom 4874 were confirmed as positive for Ebola virus infection. Six studies explored the performance of WHO case definitions in non-paediatric populations, and in all of these studies, suspected and probable cases were combined and could not be disaggregated for analysis. The pooled sensitivity of the WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions from these studies was 81·5% (95% CI 74·1-87·2) and pooled specificity was 35·7% (28·5-43·6). History of contact or epidemiological link was a key predictor for the WHO case definitions (seven studies) and for risk scores (six studies). The most sensitive symptom was intense fatigue (79·0% [95% CI 74·4-83·0]), assessed in seven studies, and the least sensitive symptom was pain behind the eyes (1·0% [0·0-7·0]), assessed in three studies. The performance of fever as a symptom varied depending on the cutoff used to define fever. INTERPRETATION: WHO Ebola virus disease case definitions perform suboptimally to identify cases at both community level and during triage at Ebola health facilities. Inclusion of intense fatigue as a key symptom and contact history could improve the performance of case definitions, but implementation of these changes will require effective collaboration with, and trust of, affected communities. FUNDING: Médecins sans Frontières

Ebola viral load at diagnosis associates with patient outcome and outbreak evolution

BACKGROUND. Ebola virus (EBOV) causes periodic outbreaks of life-threatening EBOV disease in Africa. Historically, these outbreaks have been relatively small and geographically contained; however, the magnitude of the EBOV outbreak that began in 2014 in West Africa has been unprecedented. The aim of this study was to describe the viral kinetics of EBOV during this outbreak and identify factors that contribute to outbreak progression. METHODS. From July to December 2014, one laboratory in Sierra Leone processed over 2,700 patient samples for EBOV detection by quantitative PCR (qPCR). Viremia was measured following patient admission. Age, sex, and approximate time of symptom onset were also recorded for each patient. The data was analyzed using various mathematical models to find trends of potential interest. RESULTS. The analysis revealed a significant difference (P = 2.7 × 10–77) between the initial viremia of survivors (4.02 log10 genome equivalents [GEQ]/ml) and nonsurvivors (6.18 log10 GEQ/ml). At the population level, patient viral loads were higher on average in July than in November, even when accounting for outcome and time since onset of symptoms. This decrease in viral loads temporally correlated with an increase in circulating EBOV-specific IgG antibodies among individuals who were suspected of being infected but shown to be negative for the virus by PCR. CONCLUSIONS. Our results indicate that initial viremia is associated with outcome of the individual and outbreak duration; therefore, care must be taken in planning clinical trials and interventions. Additional research in virus adaptation and the impacts of host factors on EBOV transmission and pathogenesis is needed

Exploring the evidence base for national and regional policy interventions to combat resistance

The effectiveness of existing policies to control antimicrobial resistance is not yet fully understood. A strengthened evidence base is needed to inform effective policy interventions across countries with different income levels and the human health and animal sectors. We examine three policy domains—responsible use, surveillance, and infection prevention and control—and consider which will be the most effective at national and regional levels. Many complexities exist in the implementation of such policies across sectors and in varying political and regulatory environments. Therefore, we make recommendations for policy action, calling for comprehensive policy assessments, using standardised frameworks, of cost-effectiveness and generalisability. Such assessments are especially important in low-income and middle-income countries, and in the animal and environmental sectors. We also advocate a One Health approach that will enable the development of sensitive policies, accommodating the needs of each sector involved, and addressing concerns of specific countries and regions