Independent external validation of the QRISK3 cardiovascular disease risk prediction model using UK Biobank

Objective To externally evaluate the performance of QRISK3 for predicting 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the UK Biobank cohort. Methods We used data from the UK Biobank, a large-scale prospective cohort study of 403 370 participants aged 40–69 years recruited between 2006 and 2010 in the UK. We included participants with no previous history of CVD or statin treatment and defined the outcome to be the first occurrence of coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, derived from linked hospital inpatient records and death registrations. Results Our study population included 233 233 women and 170 137 men, with 9295 and 13 028 incident CVD events, respectively. Overall, QRISK3 had moderate discrimination for UK Biobank participants (Harrell’s C-statistic 0.722 in women and 0.697 in men) and discrimination declined by age (<0.62 in all participants aged 65 years or older). QRISK3 systematically overpredicted CVD risk in UK Biobank, particularly in older participants, by as much as 20%. Conclusions QRISK3 had moderate overall discrimination in UK Biobank, which was best in younger participants. The observed CVD risk for UK Biobank participants was lower than that predicted by QRISK3, particularly for older participants. It may be necessary to recalibrate QRISK3 or use an alternate model in studies that require accurate CVD risk prediction in UK Biobank

What facilitates the delivery of dignified care to older people? A survey of health care professionals Geriatrics

Background: Whilst the past decade has seen a growing emphasis placed upon ensuring dignity in the care of older people this policy objective is not being consistently achieved and there appears a gap between policy and practice. We need to understand how dignified care for older people is understood and delivered by the health and social care workforce and how organisational structures and policies can promote and facilitate, or hinder, the delivery of such care. Methods: To achieve our objective of understanding the facilitators and to the delivery of dignified care we undertook a survey with health and social care professionals across four NHS Trusts in England. Participants were asked provide free text answers identifying any facilitators/barriers to the provision of dignified care. Survey data was entered into SPSSv15 and analysed using descriptive statistics. These data provided the overall context describing staff attitudes and beliefs about dignity and the provision of dignified care. Qualitative data from the survey were transcribed verbatim and categorised into themes using thematic analysis. Results: 192 respondents were included in the analysis. 79 % of respondents identified factors within their working environment that helped them provide dignified care and 68 % identified barriers to achieving this policy objective. Facilitators and barriers to delivering dignified care were categorised into three domains: 'organisational level'; 'ward level' and 'individual level'. Within the these levels, respondents reported factors that both supported and hindered dignity in care including 'time', 'staffing levels', training',' 'ward environment', 'staff attitudes', 'support', 'involving family/carers', and 'reflection'. Conclusion: Facilitators and barriers to the delivery of dignity as perceived by health and social care professionals are multi-faceted and range from practical issues to interpersonal and training needs. Thus interventions to support health and social care professionals in delivering dignified care, need to take a range of issues into account to ensure that older people receive a high standard of care in NHS Trusts.Professor David Oliver, Professor Andree le May, Dr. Sally Richards, Dr Wendy Marti

A demonstration of an affinity between pyrite and organic matter in a hydrothermal setting

One of the key-principles of the iron-sulphur world theory is to bring organic molecules close enough to interact with each other, using the surface of pyrite as a substrate in a hydrothermal setting. The present paper explores the relationship of pyrite and organic matter in a hydrothermal setting from the geological record; in hydrothermal calcite veins from Carboniferous limestones in central Ireland. Here, the organic matter is accumulated as coatings around, and through, pyrite grains. Most of the pyrite grains are euhedral-subhedral crystals, ranging in size from ca 0.1-0.5 mm in diameter, and they are scattered throughout the matrix of the vein calcite. The organic matter was deposited from a hydrothermal fluid at a temperature of at least 200°C, and gives a Raman signature of disordered carbon. This study points to an example from a hydrothermal setting in the geological record, demonstrating that pyrite can have a high potential for the concentration and accumulation of organic materials

Oxygen saturation and outcomes in preterm infants

BACKGROUN

Population-based estimates of the prevalence of FMR1 expansion mutations in women with early menopause and primary ovarian insufficiency

PURPOSE: Primary ovarian insufficiency before the age of 40 years affects 1% of the female population and is characterized by permanent cessation of menstruation. Genetic causes include FMR1 expansion mutations. Previous studies have estimated mutation prevalence in clinical referrals for primary ovarian insufficiency, but these are likely to be biased as compared with cases in the general population. The prevalence of FMR1 expansion mutations in early menopause (between the ages of 40 and 45 years) has not been published. METHODS: We studied FMR1 CGG repeat number in more than 2,000 women from the Breakthrough Generations Study who underwent menopause before the age of 46 years. We determined the prevalence of premutation (55–200 CGG repeats) and intermediate (45–54 CGG repeats) alleles in women with primary ovarian insufficiency (n = 254) and early menopause (n = 1,881). RESULTS: The prevalence of the premutation was 2.0% in primary ovarian insufficiency, 0.7% in early menopause, and 0.4% in controls, corresponding to odds ratios of 5.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.7–17.4; P = 0.004) for primary ovarian insufficiency and 2.0 (95% confidence interval = 0.8–5.1; P = 0.12) for early menopause. Combining primary ovarian insufficiency and early menopause gave an odds ratio of 2.4 (95% confidence interval = 1.02–5.8; P = 0.04). Intermediate alleles were not significant risk factors for either early menopause or primary ovarian insufficiency. CONCLUSION: FMR1 premutations are not as prevalent in women with ovarian insufficiency as previous estimates have suggested, but they still represent a substantial cause of primary ovarian insufficiency and early menopause

Site Fidelity in Space Use by Spider Monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Animal home ranges may vary little in their size and location in the short term but nevertheless show more variability in the long term. We evaluated the degree of site fidelity of two groups of spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) over a 10- and 13-year period, respectively, in the northeastern Yucatan peninsula, Mexico. We used the Local Convex Hull method to estimate yearly home ranges and core areas (defined as the 60% probability contour) for the two groups. Home ranges varied from 7.7 to 49.6 ha and core areas varied from 3.1 to 9.2 ha. We evaluated the degree of site fidelity by quantifying the number of years in which different areas were used as either home ranges or core areas. Large tracts were used only as home ranges and only for a few years, whereas small areas were used as either core area or home range for the duration of the study. The sum of the yearly core areas coincided partially with the yearly home ranges, indicating that home ranges contain areas used intermittently. Home ranges, and especially core areas, contained a higher proportion of mature forest than the larger study site as a whole. Across years and only in one group, the size of core areas was positively correlated with the proportion of adult males in the group, while the size of home ranges was positively correlated with both the proportion of males and the number of tree species included in the diet. Our findings suggest that spider monkey home ranges are the result of a combination of long-term site fidelity and year-to-year use variation to enable exploration of new resources

Reverse Engineering a Signaling Network Using Alternative Inputs

One of the goals of systems biology is to reverse engineer in a comprehensive fashion the arrow diagrams of signal transduction systems. An important tool for ordering pathway components is genetic epistasis analysis, and here we present a strategy termed Alternative Inputs (AIs) to perform systematic epistasis analysis. An alternative input is defined as any genetic manipulation that can activate the signaling pathway instead of the natural input. We introduced the concept of an “AIs-Deletions matrix” that summarizes the outputs of all combinations of alternative inputs and deletions. We developed the theory and algorithms to construct a pairwise relationship graph from the AIs-Deletions matrix capturing both functional ordering (upstream, downstream) and logical relationships (AND, OR), and then interpreting these relationships into a standard arrow diagram. As a proof-of-principle, we applied this methodology to a subset of genes involved in yeast mating signaling. This experimental pilot study highlights the robustness of the approach and important technical challenges. In summary, this research formalizes and extends classical epistasis analysis from linear pathways to more complex networks, facilitating computational analysis and reconstruction of signaling arrow diagrams