Lost that lovin' feeling: The erosion of trust between small, high-distance partners

We investigate the role of high distance in trust erosion between small partners. High distance is known to hinder the formation of trust between potential partners, but its role in trust erosion in established partnerships is less understood by international business scholars. Through a qualitative longitudinal study, we extend current theory of how high distance effects the trust dynamics between cross-border partners. Specifically, we unearth three inter-related mechanisms that together explain how and why trust can erode due to high distance. We show that before a partnership is formed, high distance can lead partners to erroneously attribute cues to a potential partner’s high quality, leading to over-expectations of partner performance. Once the partnership is operational, high distance hinders actors’ ability to understand situational factors associated with disappointing outcomes, and so they are attributed to failings of the partner. At the same time, distance-related challenges of bounded reliability render partners reluctant to discuss partnership outcomes. This can result in a vicious cycle of inertia as partners strive to protect goodwill while abandoning efforts to produce partnership outcome because of doubts of the other’s quality. Thus, our theoretical model illustrates the limitations of trust and explains how, paradoxically, high distance can facilitate both trust formation and trust erosion

Age-dependent associations between 25-hydroxy Vitamin D levels and COPD symptoms: Analysis of SPIROMICS

Introduction: Age and vitamin D levels may affect symptom burden in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We used the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) to determine independent associations between vitamin D levels and COPD symptoms in different age strata. Methods: Serum 25-hydroxy (OH)-vitamin D levels were modeled continuously and categorically (65 years old), multivariable modeling was performed to identify relationships between 25-OH-vitamin D levels and the COPD Assessment Test (CAT), the modified Medical Research Council score (mMRC), the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total and subdomain scores, the Veterans' Specific Activity Questionnaire, and the 6-minute walk test distance. Results: In the middle-aged group, each 5ng/ml higher 25-OH-vitamin D level was independently associated with more favorable CAT score (-0.35[-0.67 to -0.03], P=0.03), total SGRQ (-0.91[-1.65 to -0.17]; P=0.02), and the SGRQ subdomains (Symptoms:-1.07[-1.96 to -0.18], P=0.02; Impact: -0.77[-1.53 to -0.003], P=0.049; Activity: -1.07[-1.96 to -0.18], P=0.02). These associations persisted after the addition of comorbidity score, reported vitamin D supplementation, outdoor time, or season of blood draw to models. No associations were observed between 25-OH-vitamin D levels and symptom scores in the older age group. Discussion: When controlled for clinically relevant covariates, higher 25-OH-vitamin D levels are associated with more favorable respiratory-specific symptoms and quality-of-life assessments in middle-age but not older COPD individuals. Study of the role of vitamin D supplementation in the symptom burden of younger COPD patients is needed

Association of Nonobstructive Chronic Bronchitis with Respiratory Health Outcomes in Adults

Importance: Chronic bronchitis has been associated with cigarette smoking as well as with e-cigarette use among young adults, but the association of chronic bronchitis in persons without airflow obstruction or clinical asthma, described as nonobstructive chronic bronchitis, with respiratory health outcomes remains uncertain. Objective: To assess whether nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes in adult ever smokers and never smokers. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study included 22325 adults without initial airflow obstruction (defined as the ratio of forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] to forced vital capacity [FVC] of <0.70) or clinical asthma at baseline. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Pooled Cohorts Study harmonized and pooled data from 9 US general population-based cohorts. Thus present study is based on data from 5 of these cohorts. Participants were enrolled from August 1971 through May 2007 and were followed up through December 2018. Exposures: Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was defined by questionnaire at baseline as both cough and phlegm for at least 3 months for at least 2 consecutive years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Lung function was measured by prebronchodilator spirometry. Hospitalizations and deaths due to chronic lower respiratory disease and respiratory disease-related mortality were defined by events adjudication and administrative criteria. Models were stratified by smoking status and adjusted for anthropometric, sociodemographic, and smoking-related factors. The comparison group was participants without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Results: Among 22325 adults included in the analysis, mean (SD) age was 53.0 (16.3) years (range, 18.0-95.0 years), 58.2% were female, 65.9% were non-Hispanic white, and 49.6% were ever smokers. Among 11082 ever smokers with 99869 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (300 [2.7%]) had accelerated decreases in FEV1 (4.1 mL/y; 95% CI, 2.1-6.1 mL/y) and FVC (4.7 mL/y; 95% CI, 2.2-7.2 mL/y), increased risks of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.7), and greater respiratory disease-related (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.8) and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8) compared with ever smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Among 11243 never smokers with 120004 person-years of follow-up, participants with nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (151 [1.3%]) had greater rates of chronic lower respiratory disease-related hospitalization or mortality (HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.1-4.5) compared with never smokers without nonobstructive chronic bronchitis. Nonobstructive chronic bronchitis was not associated with FEV1:FVC decline or incident airflow obstruction. The presence of at least 1 of the component symptoms of nonobstructive chronic bronchitis (ie, chronic cough or phlegm), which was common in both ever smokers (11.0%) and never smokers (6.7%), was associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings suggest that nonobstructive chronic bronchitis is associated with adverse respiratory health outcomes, particularly in ever smokers, and may be a high-risk phenotype suitable for risk stratification and targeted therapies

Lung function decline in former smokers and low-intensity current smokers: a secondary data analysis of the NHLBI Pooled Cohorts Study

Background: Former smokers now outnumber current smokers in many developed countries, and current smokers are smoking fewer cigarettes per day. Some data suggest that lung function decline normalises with smoking cessation; however, mechanistic studies suggest that lung function decline could continue. We hypothesised that former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers, including among those without prevalent lung disease. Methods: We used data on six US population-based cohorts included in the NHLBI Pooled Cohort Study. We restricted the sample to participants with valid spirometry at two or more exams. Two cohorts recruited younger adults (≥17 years), two recruited middle-aged and older adults (≥45 years), and two recruited only elderly adults (≥65 years) with examinations done between 1983 and 2014. FEV1 decline in sustained former smokers and current smokers was compared to that of never-smokers by use of mixed models adjusted for sociodemographic and anthropometric factors. Differential FEV1 decline was also evaluated according to duration of smoking cessation and cumulative (number of pack-years) and current (number of cigarettes per day) cigarette consumption. Findings: 25 352 participants (ages 17–93 years) completed 70 228 valid spirometry exams. Over a median follow-up of 7 years (IQR 3–20), FEV1 decline at the median age (57 years) was 31·01 mL per year (95% CI 30·66–31·37) in sustained never-smokers, 34·97 mL per year (34·36–35·57) in former smokers, and 39·92 mL per year (38·92–40·92) in current smokers. With adjustment, former smokers showed an accelerated FEV1 decline of 1·82 mL per year (95% CI 1·24–2·40) compared to never-smokers, which was approximately 20% of the effect estimate for current smokers (9·21 mL per year; 95% CI 8·35–10·08). Compared to never-smokers, accelerated FEV1 decline was observed in former smokers for decades after smoking cessation and in current smokers with low cumulative cigarette consumption (<10 pack-years). With respect to current cigarette consumption, the effect estimate for FEV1 decline in current smokers consuming less than five cigarettes per day (7·65 mL per year; 95% CI 6·21–9·09) was 68% of that in current smokers consuming 30 or more cigarettes per day (11·24 mL per year; 9·86–12·62), and around five times greater than in former smokers (1·57 mL per year; 1·00–2·14). Among participants without prevalent lung disease, associations were attenuated but were consistent with the main results. Interpretation: Former smokers and low-intensity current smokers have accelerated lung function decline compared with never-smokers. These results suggest that all levels of smoking exposure are likely to be associated with lasting and progressive lung damage. Funding: National Institutes of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Institute, and US Environmental Protection Agency

Use of Repeated Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Measurements to Improve Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: An Individual-Participant-Data Meta-Analysis

The added value of incorporating information from repeated blood pressure and cholesterol measurements to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk has not been rigorously assessed. We used data on 191,445 adults from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (38 cohorts from 17 countries with data encompassing 1962-2014) with more than 1 million measurements of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Over a median 12 years of follow-up, 21,170 CVD events occurred. Risk prediction models using cumulative mean values of repeated measurements and summary measures from longitudinal modeling of the repeated measurements were compared with models using measurements from a single time point. Risk discrimination (Cindex) and net reclassification were calculated, and changes in C-indices were meta-analyzed across studies. Compared with the single-time-point model, the cumulative means and longitudinal models increased the C-index by 0.0040 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0023, 0.0057) and 0.0023 (95% CI: 0.0005, 0.0042), respectively. Reclassification was also improved in both models; compared with the single-time-point model, overall net reclassification improvements were 0.0369 (95% CI: 0.0303, 0.0436) for the cumulative-means model and 0.0177 (95% CI: 0.0110, 0.0243) for the longitudinal model. In conclusion, incorporating repeated measurements of blood pressure and cholesterol into CVD risk prediction models slightly improves risk prediction

Associations Among 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Levels, Lung Function, and Exacerbation Outcomes in COPD: An Analysis of the SPIROMICS Cohort

Background: The relationship between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OH-vitamin D) and COPD outcomes remains unclear. Using the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS), we determined associations among baseline 25-OH-vitamin D and cross-sectional and longitudinal lung function and COPD exacerbations. Methods: Serum 25-OH-vitamin D level was measured in stored samples from 1,609 SPIROMICS participants with COPD. 25-OH-vitamin D levels were modeled continuously and dichotomized as deficient (< 20 ng/mL) vs not deficient (≥ 20 ng/mL). Outcomes of interest included % predicted FEV1 (current and 1-year longitudinal decline) and COPD exacerbations (separately any and severe, occurring in prior year and first year of follow-up). Results: Vitamin D deficiency was present in 21% of the cohort and was more prevalent in the younger, active smokers, and blacks. Vitamin D deficiency was independently associated with lower % predicted FEV1 (by 4.11%) at enrollment (95% CI, –6.90% to –1.34% predicted FEV1; P =.004), 1.27% predicted greater rate of FEV1 decline after 1 year (95% CI, –2.32% to –0.22% predicted/y; P =.02), and higher odds of any COPD exacerbation in the prior year (OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.74; P =.049). Each 10-ng/mL decrease in 25-OH-vitamin D was associated with lower baseline lung function (–1.04% predicted; 95% CI, –1.96% to –0.12% predicted; P =.03) and increased odds of any exacerbation in the year before enrollment (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.22; P =.04). Conclusions: Vitamin D deficiency is associated with worse cross-sectional and longitudinal lung function and increased odds of prior COPD exacerbations. These findings identify 25-OH-vitamin D levels as a potentially useful marker of adverse COPD-related outcomes

Meta-analysis of type 2 Diabetes in African Americans Consortium

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is more prevalent in African Americans than in Europeans. However, little is known about the genetic risk in African Americans despite the recent identification of more than 70 T2D loci primarily by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in individuals of European ancestry. In order to investigate the genetic architecture of T2D in African Americans, the MEta-analysis of type 2 DIabetes in African Americans (MEDIA) Consortium examined 17 GWAS on T2D comprising 8,284 cases and 15,543 controls in African Americans in stage 1 analysis. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) association analysis was conducted in each study under the additive model after adjustment for age, sex, study site, and principal components. Meta-analysis of approximately 2.6 million genotyped and imputed SNPs in all studies was conducted using an inverse variance-weighted fixed effect model. Replications were performed to follow up 21 loci in up to 6,061 cases and 5,483 controls in African Americans, and 8,130 cases and 38,987 controls of European ancestry. We identified three known loci (TCF7L2, HMGA2 and KCNQ1) and two novel loci (HLA-B and INS-IGF2) at genome-wide significance (4.15 × 10(-94)<P<5 × 10(-8), odds ratio (OR)  = 1.09 to 1.36). Fine-mapping revealed that 88 of 158 previously identified T2D or glucose homeostasis loci demonstrated nominal to highly significant association (2.2 × 10(-23) < locus-wide P<0.05). These novel and previously identified loci yielded a sibling relative risk of 1.19, explaining 17.5% of the phenotypic variance of T2D on the liability scale in African Americans. Overall, this study identified two novel susceptibility loci for T2D in African Americans. A substantial number of previously reported loci are transferable to African Americans after accounting for linkage disequilibrium, enabling fine mapping of causal variants in trans-ethnic meta-analysis studies.Peer reviewe

Association of sputum and blood eosinophil concentrations with clinical measures of COPD severity: an analysis of the SPIROMICS cohort

Background Increased concentrations of eosinophils in blood and sputum in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have been associated with increased frequency of exacerbations, reduced lung function, and corticosteroid responsiveness. We aimed to assess whether high eosinophil concentrations in either sputum or blood are associated with a severe COPD phenotype, including greater exacerbation frequency, and whether blood eosinophils are predictive of sputum eosinophils. Methods We did a multicentre observational study analysing comprehensive baseline data from SPIROMICS in patients with COPD aged 40–80 years who had a smoking history of at least 20 pack-years, recruited from six clinical sites and additional subsites in the USA between Nov 12, 2010, and April 21, 2015. Inclusion criteria for this analysis were SPIROMICS baseline visit data with complete blood cell counts and, in a subset, acceptable sputum counts. We stratified patients on the basis of blood and sputum eosinophil concentrations and compared their demographic characteristics, as well as results from questionnaires, clinical assessments, and quantitative CT (QCT). We also analysed whether blood eosinophil concentrations reliably predicted sputum eosinophil concentrations. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01969344). Findings Of the 2737 patients recruited to SPIROMICS, 2499 patients were smokers and had available blood counts, and so were stratified by mean blood eosinophil count: 1262 patients with low (&lt;200 cells per μL) and 1237 with high (≥200 cells per μL) blood eosinophil counts. 827 patients were eligible for stratification by mean sputum eosinophil percentage: 656 with low (&lt;1·25%) and 171 with high (≥1·25%) sputum eosinophil percentages. The high sputum eosinophil group had significantly lower median FEV1 percentage predicted than the low sputum eosinophil group both before (65·7% [IQR 51·8–81·3] vs 75·7% [59·3–90·2], p&lt;0·0001) and after (77·3% [63·1–88·5] vs 82·9% [67·8–95·9], p=0·001) bronchodilation. QCT density measures for emphysema and air trapping were significantly higher in the high sputum eosinophil group than the low sputum eosinophil group. Exacerbations requiring corticosteroids treatment were more common in the high versus low sputum eosinophil group (p=0·002). FEV1 percentage predicted was significantly different between low and high blood eosinophil groups, but differences were less than those observed between the sputum groups. The high blood eosinophil group had slightly increased airway wall thickness (0·02 mm difference, p=0·032), higher St George Respiratory Questionnaire symptom scores (p=0·037), and increased wheezing (p=0·018), but no evidence of an association with COPD exacerbations (p=0·35) or the other indices of COPD severity, such as emphysema measured by CT density, COPD assessment test scores, Body-mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Exercise index, or Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage. Blood eosinophil counts showed a weak but significant association with sputum eosinophil counts (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0·64, p&lt;0·0001), but with a high false-discovery rate of 72%. Interpretation In a large, well characterised cohort of former and current smoking patients with a broad range of COPD severity, high concentrations of sputum eosinophils were a better biomarker than high concentrations of blood eosinophils to identify a patient subgroup with more severe disease, more frequent exacerbations, and increased emphysema by QCT. Blood eosinophils alone were not a reliable biomarker for COPD severity or exacerbations, or for sputum eosinophils. Clinical trials targeting eosinophilic inflammation in COPD should consider assessing sputum eosinophils. Funding National Institutes of Health, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute

Frequency of exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: an analysis of the SPIROMICS cohort

Background Present treatment strategies to stratify exacerbation risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) rely on a history of two or more events in the previous year. We aimed to understand year to year variability in exacerbations and factors associated with consistent exacerbations over time. Methods In this longitudinal, prospective analysis of exacerbations in the Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) cohort, we analysed patients aged 40–80 years with COPD for whom 3 years of prospective data were available, identified through various means including care at academic and non-academic medical centres, word of mouth, and existing patient registries. Participants were enrolled in the study between Nov 12, 2010, and July 31, 2015. We classified patients according to yearly exacerbation frequency: no exacerbations in any year; one exacerbation in every year during 3 years of follow-up; and those with inconsistent exacerbations (individuals who had both years with exacerbations and years without during the 3 years of follow-up). Participants were characterised by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) spirometric category (1–4) on the basis of post-bronchodilator FEV1. Stepwise logistic regression was used to compare factors associated with one or more acute exacerbations of COPD every year for 3 years versus no exacerbations in the same timeframe. Additionally, a stepwise zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to assess predictors of exacerbation count during follow-up in all patients with available data. Baseline symptom burden was assessed with the COPD assessment test. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01969344. Findings 2981 patients were enrolled during the study. 1843 patients had COPD, of which 1105 patients had 3 years of complete, prospective follow-up data. 538 (49%) of 1105 patients had at least one acute exacerbation during the 3 years of follow-up, whereas 567 (51%) had none. 82 (7%) of 1105 patients had at least one acute exacerbation each year, whereas only 23 (2%) had two or more acute exacerbations in each year. An inconsistent pattern (both years with and without acute exacerbations) was common (456 [41%] of the group), particularly among GOLD stages 3 and 4 patients (256 [56%] of 456). In logistic regression, consistent acute exacerbations (≥1 event per year for 3 years) were associated with higher baseline symptom burden, previous exacerbations, greater evidence of small airway abnormality on CT, lower interleukin-15 concentrations, and higher interleukin-8 concentrations, than were no acute exacerbations. Interpretation Although acute exacerbations are common, the exacerbation status of most individuals varies markedly from year to year. Among patients who had any acute exacerbation over 3 years, very few repeatedly had two or more events per year. In addition to symptoms and history of exacerbations in the year before study enrolment, we identified several novel biomarkers associated with consistent exacerbations, including CT-defined small airway abnormality, and interleukin-15 and interleukin-8 concentrations. Funding National Institutes of Health, and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute

Aspirin Use and Respiratory Morbidity in COPD: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis in Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study

Background: Aspirin use in COPD has been associated with reduced all-cause mortality in meta-regression analysis with few equivocal studies. However, the effect of aspirin on COPD morbidity is unknown. Methods: Self-reported daily aspirin use was obtained at baseline from SPIROMICS participants with COPD (FEV 1 /FVC &lt; 70%). Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) were prospectively ascertained through quarterly structured telephone questionnaires up to 3 years and categorized as moderate (symptoms treated with antibiotics or oral corticosteroids) or severe (requiring ED visit or hospitalization). Aspirin users were matched one-to-one with nonusers, based on propensity score. The association of aspirin use with total, moderate, and severe AECOPD was investigated using zero-inflated negative binomial models. Linear or logistic regression was used to investigate the association with baseline respiratory symptoms, quality of life, and exercise tolerance. Results: Among 1,698 participants, 45% reported daily aspirin use at baseline. Propensity score matching resulted in 503 participant pairs. Aspirin users had a lower incidence rate of total AECOPD (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65-0.94), with similar effect for moderate but not severe AECOPD (IRR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.63-1.18). Aspirin use was associated with lower total St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire score (β, –2.2; 95% CI, –4.1 to –0.4), reduced odds of moderate-severe dyspnea (modified Medical Research Council questionnaire score ≥ 2; adjusted odds ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.51-0.93), and COPD Assessment Test score (β, –1.1; 95% CI, –1.9 to –0.2) but not 6-min walk distance (β, 0.7 m; 95% CI, –14.3 to 15.6). Conclusions: Daily aspirin use is associated with reduced rate of COPD exacerbations, less dyspnea, and better quality of life. Randomized clinical trials of aspirin use in COPD are warranted to account for unmeasured and residual confounding. Trial Registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01969344; URL: www.clinicaltrials.go