Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

Ice shelf break-up and disintegration events over the past 5 decades have led to speed-up, thinning, and retreat of upstream tributary glaciers and increases to rates of global sea-level rise. The southward progression of these episodes indicates a climatic cause and in turn suggests that the larger Larsen C and George VI ice shelves may undergo a similar collapse in the future. However, the extent to which removal of the Larsen C and George VI ice shelves will affect upstream tributary glaciers and add to global sea levels is unknown. Here we apply numerical ice-sheet models of varying complexity to show that the centennial sea-level commitment of Larsen C embayment glaciers following immediate shelf collapse is low ( < 2.5 mm to 2100,  < 4.2 mm to 2300). Despite its large size, Larsen C does not provide strong buttressing forces to upstream basins and its collapse does not result in large additional discharge from its tributary glaciers in any of our model scenarios. In contrast, the response of inland glaciers to a collapse of the George VI Ice Shelf may add up to 8mm to global sea levels by 2100 and 22mm by 2300 due in part to the mechanism of marine ice sheet instability. Our results demonstrate the varying and relative importance to sea level of the large Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves considered to present a risk of collapse

Impact of ocean forcing on the Aurora Basin in the 21st and 22nd centuries

The grounded ice in the Totten and Dalton glaciers is an essential component of the buttressing for the marine-based Aurora basin, and hence their stability is important to the future rate of mass loss from East Antarctica. Totten and Vanderford glaciers are joined by a deep east-west running subglacial trench between the continental ice sheet and Law Dome, while a shallower trench links the Totten and Dalton glaciers. All three glaciers flow into the ocean close to the Antarctic circle and experience ocean-driven ice shelf melt rates comparable with the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We investigate this combination of trenches and ice shelves with the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice-sheet model and ocean-forcing melt rates derived from two global climate models. We find that ice shelf ablation at a rate comparable with the present day is sufficient to cause widespread grounding line retreat in an east-west direction across Totten and Dalton glaciers, with projected future warming causing faster retreat. Meanwhile, southward retreat is limited by the shallower ocean facing slopes between the coast and the bulk of the Aurora sub-glacial trench. However the two climate models produce completely different future ice shelf basal melt rates in this region: HadCM3 drives increasing sub-ice shelf melting to ~2150, while ECHAM5 shows little or no increase in sub-ice shelf melting under the two greenhouse gas forcing scenarios

Ice shelf fracture parameterization in an ice sheet model

We add a continuum damage model to the BISICLES AMR ice sheet model to simulate crevasse growth and transport, and test its impact on a standard test. We conclude that damage mechanics are important in ice shelves, and reduce their drag upon upstream glaciers, but that models may perform similarly with simple rules-of-thumb

In vivo CRISPRa decreases seizures and rescues cognitive deficits in a rodent model of epilepsy

Epilepsy is a major health burden, calling for new mechanistic insights and therapies. CRISPR-mediated gene editing shows promise to cure genetic pathologies, although hitherto it has mostly been applied ex vivo. Its translational potential for treating non-genetic pathologies is still unexplored. Furthermore, neurological diseases represent an important challenge for the application of CRISPR, because of the need in many cases to manipulate gene function of neurons in situ. A variant of CRISPR, CRISPRa, offers the possibility to modulate the expression of endogenous genes by directly targeting their promoters. We asked if this strategy can effectively treat acquired focal epilepsy, focusing on ion channels because their manipulation is known be effective in changing network hyperactivity and hypersynchronziation. We applied a doxycycline-inducible CRISPRa technology to increase the expression of the potassium channel gene Kcna1 (encoding Kv1.1) in mouse hippocampal excitatory neurons. CRISPRa-mediated Kv1.1 upregulation led to a substantial decrease in neuronal excitability. Continuous video-EEG telemetry showed that AAV9-mediated delivery of CRISPRa, upon doxycycline administration, decreased spontaneous generalized tonic-clonic seizures in a model of temporal lobe epilepsy, and rescued cognitive impairment and transcriptomic alterations associated with chronic epilepsy. The focal treatment minimizes concerns about off-target effects in other organs and brain areas. This study provides the proof-of-principle for a translational CRISPR-based approach to treat neurological diseases characterized by abnormal circuit excitability

Orbital pacing of the Early Jurassic carbon cycle, black-shale formation and seabed methane seepage

The Early Jurassic (ca 201 to 174 Ma) was marked by a series of rapid perturbations in climate, the environment and global geochemical cycles, which have been linked to volcanic outgassing and the release of biogenic or thermogenic methane into the ocean–atmosphere system. The state of the global carbon cycle and prevailing climatic and environmental conditions that existed at this time are, however, poorly constrained. Here, mudrocks of the Lower Sinemurian Arietites bucklandi ammonite Biozone at coastal exposures at Kilve, Somerset, UK, have been studied. This succession includes laminated organic-rich black shales, which are present throughout the Bristol Channel Basin, and coincides with a 2 to 3‰ negative carbon-isotope excursion, distinct changes in inferred land vegetation and abundant marine prasinophytes (green algae). The event itself does not represent a single perturbation of the regional environment, but follows in a sequence of eccentricity-modulated, precession-paced perturbations that occur throughout the preceding Hettangian stage, with the periodic formation of organic-rich laminated black shales in the Bristol Channel Basin. However, the Early Sinemurian event studied herein is more extreme in nature, with sedimentary total organic carbon values of 5 to 11% persisting over about 2 m, representing ca 100 kyr, possibly in phase with short (ca 100 kyr) and long (ca 405 kyr) eccentricity forcing. The formation of methane-seep carbonate-cemented mounds took place relatively soon after the deposition of laminated black shales. Biogenic methane probably formed in response to microbial methanogenesis in the organic-rich black shale, which was subsequently channelled to the sediment–water interface approximately 5 m above the source bed, and ca 200 kyr after cessation of formation of the black shale

Ocean forced variability of Totten Glacier mass loss

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Geological Society of London via the DOI in this record.A large volume of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet drains through the Totten Glacier (TG) and is thought to be a potential source of substantial global sea level rise over the coming centuries. We show the surface velocity and heightof the floating part of TG, which buttresses the grounded component, have varied substantially over two decades (1989–2011), with variations in surface height strongly anti-correlated with simulated basal melt rates (r=0.70, p<0.05). Coupled glacier/ice-shelf simulations confirm ice flow and thickness respond to both basal melting of the ice shelf and grounding on bed obstacles. We conclude the observed variability of TG is primarily ocean-driven. Ocean warming in this region will lead to enhanced ice-sheet dynamism and loss of upstream grounded ice.This work was supported by, Australian Antarctic Division projects 3103, 4077, 4287 and 4346, National Computing Infrastructure grant m68, NSF grant ANT-0733025, NASA grant NNX09AR52G (Operation Ice Bridge), NERC grant NE/F016646/1, NERC fellowship NE/G012733/2, the Jackson School of Geoscience, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the G. Unger Vetlesen Foundation. This research was also supported by the Australian Government’s Cooperative Research Centres Programme through the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre. The work is also supported under the Australian Research Councils Special Research Initiative for Antarctic Gateway Partnership SR140300001. Landsat 4 and 7 images courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey. This is UTIG contribution 2486. Thanks to Benoit Legresy for useful discussions

Determination of the director profile in a nematic cell from guided wave data: an inverse problem

Copyright © 2007 IOP Publishing Ltd and Deutsche Physikalische Gesellschaft. This is the published version of an article published in New Journal of Physics Vol. 9, article 166. DOI: 10.1088/1367-2630/9/6/166We consider an inverse problem: the estimation of the nematic director profile from experimental fully leaky guided mode data. This inverse problem is ill-posed in that small changes in the data may lead to large changes in the estimates of the director profile. The continuum equations for a nematic are exploited to stabilize the problem. We use experimental data drawn from a study of the dynamics of a hybrid-aligned nematic cell as an example

Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise

A Prospective Study of the Association of Metacognitive Beliefs and Processes with Persistent Emotional Distress After Diagnosis of Cancer

Two hundred and six patients, diagnosed with primary breast or prostate cancer completed self-report questionnaires on two occasions: before treatment (T1) and 12 months later (T2). The questionnaires included: the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; Impact of Events Scale; the Metacognitions Questionnaire-30 (MCQ-30) and the Illness Perceptions Questionnaire-revised. A series of regression analyses indicated that metacognitive beliefs at T1 predicted between 14 and 19 % of the variance in symptoms of anxiety, depression and trauma at T2 after controlling for age and gender. For all three outcomes, the MCQ-30 subscale ‘negative beliefs about worry’ made the largest individual contribution with ‘cognitive confidence’ also contributing in each case. For anxiety, a third metacognitive variable, ‘positive beliefs about worry’ also predicted variance in T2 symptoms. In addition, hierarchical analyses indicated that metacognitive beliefs explained a small but significant amount of variance in T2 anxiety (2 %) and T2 depression (4 %) over and above that explained by demographic variables, T1 symptoms and T1 illness perceptions. The findings suggest that modifying metacognitive beliefs and processes has the potential to alleviate distress associated with cancer

Ancient Origins of a Modern Anthropic Cosmological Argument

Ancient origins of a modern anthropic argument against cosmologies involving infinite series of past events are considered. It is shown that this argument - which in modern times has been put forward by distinguished cosmologists like Paul C. W. Davies and Frank J. Tipler - originates in pre-Socratic times and is implicitly present in the cyclical cosmology of Empedocles. There are traces of the same line of reasoning throughout the ancient history of ideas, and the case of a provocative statement of Thucydides is briefly analyzed. Moreover, the anthropic argument has been fully formulated in the epic of Lucretius, confirming it as the summit of ancient cosmology. This is not only of historical significance but presents an important topic for the philosophy of cosmology provided some of the contemporary inflationary models, particularly Linde's chaotic inflation, turn out to be correct.Comment: 11 pages, no figures; Astronomical and Astrophysical Transactions, accepte