Standardising terminology and notation for the analysis of demographic processes in marked populations

The development of statistical methods for the analysis of demographic processes in marked animal populations has brought with it the challenges of communication between the disciplines of statistics, ecology, evolutionary biology and computer science. In order to aid communication and comprehension, we sought to root out a number of cases of ambiguity, redundancy and inaccuracy in notation and terminology that have developed in the literature. We invited all working in this field to submit topics for resolution and to express their own views. In the ensuing discussion forum it was then possible to establish a series of general principles which were, almost without exception, unanimously accepted. Here we set out the background to the areas of confusion, how these were debated and the conclusions which were reached in each case. We hope that the resulting guidelines will be widely adopted as standard terminology in publications and in software for the analysis of demographic processes in marked animal populationspostprin

Participation and satisfaction after spinal cord injury: results of a vocational and leisure outcome study

Study design: Survey. Objectives: Insight in (1) the changes in participation in vocational and leisure activities and (2) satisfaction with the current participation level of people with spinal cord injuries (SCIs) after reintegration in society. Design: Descriptive analysis of data from a questionnaire. Setting: Rehabilitation centre with special department for patients with SCIs, Groningen, The Netherlands. Subjects: A total of 57 patients with traumatic SCI living in the community, who were admitted to the rehabilitation centre two to 12 years before the current assessment. Main outcome measures: Changes in participation in activities; current life satisfaction; support and unmet needs. Results: Participation expressed in terms of hours spent on vocational and leisure activities changed to a great extent after the SCI. This was mainly determined by a large reduction of hours spent on paid work. While 60% of the respondents successfully reintegrated in work, many changes took place in the type and extent of the job. Loss of work was partially compensated with domestic and leisure activities. Sports activities were reduced substantially. The change in participation level and compensation for the lost working hours was not significantly associated with the level of SCI-specific health problems and disabilities. As was found in other studies, most respondents were satisfied with their lives. Determinants of a negative life satisfaction several years following SCI were not easily indicated. Reduced quality of life was particularly related to an unsatisfactory work and leisure situation. Conclusions: Most people with SCI in this study group were able to resume work and were satisfied with their work and leisure situation

ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients

A bayesian meta-analysis of multiple treatment comparisons of systemic regimens for advanced pancreatic cancer

© 2014 Chan et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Background: For advanced pancreatic cancer, many regimens have been compared with gemcitabine (G) as the standard arm in randomized controlled trials. Few regimens have been directly compared with each other in randomized controlled trials and the relative efficacy and safety among them remains unclear

The effects of rational and irrational coach team talks on the cognitive appraisal and achievement goal orientation of varsity football athletes

The effects of rational and irrational coach team talks on cognitive appraisal and achievement goal orientation were examined. During the half-time interval of a 60-minute football match, 25 male varsity football athletes (Mage = 20.20; SD ± 1.38 years) received a rational (n = 13) or an irrational (n = 12) team talk from a coach. Irrational and rational beliefs were measured before the football match. Task engagement, cognitive appraisal (challenge and threat), and achievement goal orientation (approach and avoidance) regarding second-half football performance were measured following team-talk delivery. Athletes in the rational team talk condition reported significantly lower threat appraisal and avoidance goal orientation than athletes in the irrational team talk condition. No significant between-condition differences emerged for challenge appraisal and approach goal orientation. For coaching practice, data suggest that communicating rational or irrational beliefs to football athletes through a half time team talk will influence appraisal and achievement goal orientation regarding upcoming performance. Keywords Rational emotive behaviour therapy, irrational beliefs, rational beliefs, appraisal, achievement goal

Large Scale Structure of the Universe

Galaxies are not uniformly distributed in space. On large scales the Universe displays coherent structure, with galaxies residing in groups and clusters on scales of ~1-3 Mpc/h, which lie at the intersections of long filaments of galaxies that are >10 Mpc/h in length. Vast regions of relatively empty space, known as voids, contain very few galaxies and span the volume in between these structures. This observed large scale structure depends both on cosmological parameters and on the formation and evolution of galaxies. Using the two-point correlation function, one can trace the dependence of large scale structure on galaxy properties such as luminosity, color, stellar mass, and track its evolution with redshift. Comparison of the observed galaxy clustering signatures with dark matter simulations allows one to model and understand the clustering of galaxies and their formation and evolution within their parent dark matter halos. Clustering measurements can determine the parent dark matter halo mass of a given galaxy population, connect observed galaxy populations at different epochs, and constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy evolution models. This chapter describes the methods used to measure the two-point correlation function in both redshift and real space, presents the current results of how the clustering amplitude depends on various galaxy properties, and discusses quantitative measurements of the structures of voids and filaments. The interpretation of these results with current theoretical models is also presented.Comment: Invited contribution to be published in Vol. 8 of book "Planets, Stars, and Stellar Systems", Springer, series editor T. D. Oswalt, volume editor W. C. Keel, v2 includes additional references, updated to match published versio

A comparison between ultraviolet disinfection and copper alginate beads within a vortex bioreactor for the deactivation of bacteria in simulated waste streams with high levels of colour, humic acid and suspended solids.

We show in this study that the combination of a swirl flow reactor and an antimicrobial agent (in this case copper alginate beads) is a promising technique for the remediation of contaminated water in waste streams recalcitrant to UV-C treatment. This is demonstrated by comparing the viability of both common and UV-C resistant organisms in operating conditions where UV-C proves ineffective - notably high levels of solids and compounds which deflect UV-C. The swirl flow reactor is easy to construct from commonly available plumbing parts and may prove a versatile and powerful tool in waste water treatment in developing countries

Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina)

Detecting failure of climate predictions

The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055

What is the evidence for the management of patients along the pathway from the emergency department to acute admission to reduce unplanned attendance and admission? An evidence synthesis

Background Globally, the rate of emergency hospital admissions is increasing. However, little evidence exists to inform the development of interventions to reduce unplanned Emergency Department (ED) attendances and hospital admissions. The objective of this evidence synthesis was to review the evidence for interventions, conducted during the patient’s journey through the ED or acute care setting, to manage people with an exacerbation of a medical condition to reduce unplanned emergency hospital attendance and admissions. Methods A rapid evidence synthesis, using a systematic literature search, was undertaken in the electronic data bases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science, for the years 2000–2014. Evidence included in this review was restricted to Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) and observational studies (with a control arm) reported in peer-reviewed journals. Studies evaluating interventions for patients with an acute exacerbation of a medical condition in the ED or acute care setting which reported at least one outcome related to ED attendance or unplanned admission were included. Results Thirty papers met our inclusion criteria: 19 intervention studies (14 RCTs) and 11 controlled observational studies. Sixteen studies were set in the ED and 14 were conducted in an acute setting. Two studies (one RCT), set in the ED were effective in reducing ED attendance and hospital admission. Both of these interventions were initiated in the ED and included a post-discharge community component. Paradoxically 3 ED initiated interventions showed an increase in ED re-attendance. Six studies (1 RCT) set in acute care settings were effective in reducing: hospital admission, ED re-attendance or re-admission (two in an observation ward, one in an ED assessment unit and three in which the intervention was conducted within 72 h of admission). Conclusions There is no clear evidence that specific interventions along the patient journey from ED arrival to 72 h after admission benefit ED re-attendance or readmission. Interventions targeted at high-risk patients, particularly the elderly, may reduce ED utilization and warrant future research. Some interventions showing effectiveness in reducing unplanned ED attendances and admissions are delivered by appropriately trained personnel in an environment that allows sufficient time to assess and manage patients