Computing Inferences for Large-Scale Continuous-Time Markov Chains by Combining Lumping with Imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences - here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations - becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed - smaller - state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality.Comment: 9th International Conference on Soft Methods in Probability and Statistics (SMPS 2018

Computing inferences for large-scale continuous-time Markov chains by combining lumping with imprecision

If the state space of a homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain is too large, making inferences—here limited to determining marginal or limit expectations—becomes computationally infeasible. Fortunately, the state space of such a chain is usually too detailed for the inferences we are interested in, in the sense that a less detailed—smaller—state space suffices to unambiguously formalise the inference. However, in general this so-called lumped state space inhibits computing exact inferences because the corresponding dynamics are unknown and/or intractable to obtain. We address this issue by considering an imprecise continuous-time Markov chain. In this way, we are able to provide guaranteed lower and upper bounds for the inferences of interest, without suffering from the curse of dimensionality

Delivery of floral resources and pollination services on farmland under three different wildlife-friendly schemes

Management that enhances floral resources can be an effective way to support pollinators and pollination services. Some wildlife-friendly farming schemes aim to enhance the density and diversity of floral resources in non-crop habitats on farms, whilst managing crop fields intensively. Others, such as organic farming, aim to support ecological processes within both crop and non-crop habitats. How effective these different approaches are for supporting pollination services at the farm scale is unknown. We compared organic farming with two non-organic wildlife-friendly farming schemes: one prescriptive (Conservation Grade, CG) and one flexible (Entry Level Stewardship, ELS), and sampled a representative selection of crop and non-crop habitats. We investigated the spatial distribution and overall level of: (i) flower density and diversity, (ii) pollinator density and diversity and (iii) pollination services provided to Californian poppy (Eschscholzia californica) potted phytometer plants. Organic crop habitats supported a higher density of flowers, insect-wildflower visits, and fruit set of phytometers than CG or ELS crop habitats. Non-crop habitats supported a higher density of flowers and insect-flower visits than crop habitats on CG and ELS farms. Pollination services were higher on organic farms overall compared to CG or ELS. Pollinator diversity and density did not differ between schemes, at the point or farm level. CG farms received the highest total number of insect-wildflower visits. The findings support organic farming practices that increase floral resources in crop habitats, such as sowing clover or reduced herbicide usage, as mechanisms to enhance pollination services. However trade-offs with other ecosystem services are likely and these are discussed. The findings support the CG scheme as a way of supporting pollinators within farms where high wheat yields are required

Maternal and early life nutrition and physical activity: setting the research and intervention agenda for addressing the double burden of malnutrition in South African children.

Early life is important for later health outcomes, yet there are few studies which adequately address all of the potential early life insults that may affect later life health and growth trajectories. This is particularly evident in low- to middle-income countries such as South Africa, where women of childbearing age are particularly vulnerable to high levels of physical inactivity, malnutrition, and obesity. Pregnancy may therefore be an opportune time to change behaviours and improve maternal and offspring health outcomes, and decrease the inter-generational transfer of risk. We show clear evidence that physical activity and nutrition are important target areas for intervention during pregnancy and in the early years of life, yet that current literature in Africa, and specifically South Africa, is limited. We have outlined the available literature concerning the impact of maternal and early life nutrition and physical activity on the health status of South African children, and have provided some recommendations for future research and policy

Novel exomphalos genetic mouse model: The importance of accurate phenotypic classification.

Rodent models of abdominal wall defects (AWD) may provide insight into the pathophysiology of these conditions including gut dysfunction in gastroschisis, or pulmonary hypoplasia in exomphalos. Previously, a Scribble mutant mouse model (circletail) was reported to exhibit gastroschisis. We further characterise this AWD in Scribble knockout mice

Spatially valid proprioceptive cues improve the detection of a visual stimulus

Vision and proprioception are the main sensory modalities that convey hand location and direction of movement. Fusion of these sensory signals into a single robust percept is now well documented. However, it is not known whether these modalities also interact in the spatial allocation of attention, which has been demonstrated for other modality pairings. The aim of this study was to test whether proprioceptive signals can spatially cue a visual target to improve its detection. Participants were instructed to use a planar manipulandum in a forward reaching action and determine during this movement whether a near-threshold visual target appeared at either of two lateral positions. The target presentation was followed by a masking stimulus, which made its possible location unambiguous, but not its presence. Proprioceptive cues were given by applying a brief lateral force to the participant’s arm, either in the same direction (validly cued) or in the opposite direction (invalidly cued) to the on-screen location of the mask. The d′ detection rate of the target increased when the direction of proprioceptive stimulus was compatible with the location of the visual target compared to when it was incompatible. These results suggest that proprioception influences the allocation of attention in visual spac

Who should be prioritized for renal transplantation?: Analysis of key stakeholder preferences using discrete choice experiments

Background Policies for allocating deceased donor kidneys have recently shifted from allocation based on Human Leucocyte Antigen (HLA) tissue matching in the UK and USA. Newer allocation algorithms incorporate waiting time as a primary factor, and in the UK, young adults are also favoured. However, there is little contemporary UK research on the views of stakeholders in the transplant process to inform future allocation policy. This research project aimed to address this issue. Methods Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) questionnaires were used to establish priorities for kidney transplantation among different stakeholder groups in the UK. Questionnaires were targeted at patients, carers, donors / relatives of deceased donors, and healthcare professionals. Attributes considered included: waiting time; donor-recipient HLA match; whether a recipient had dependents; diseases affecting life expectancy; and diseases affecting quality of life. Results Responses were obtained from 908 patients (including 98 ethnic minorities); 41 carers; 48 donors / relatives of deceased donors; and 113 healthcare professionals. The patient group demonstrated statistically different preferences for every attribute (i.e. significantly different from zero) so implying that changes in given attributes affected preferences, except when prioritizing those with no rather than moderate diseases affecting quality of life. The attributes valued highly related to waiting time, tissue match, prioritizing those with dependents, and prioritizing those with moderate rather than severe diseases affecting life expectancy. Some preferences differed between healthcare professionals and patients, and ethnic minority and non-ethnic minority patients. Only non-ethnic minority patients and healthcare professionals clearly prioritized those with better tissue matches. Conclusions Our econometric results are broadly supportive of the 2006 shift in UK transplant policy which emphasized prioritizing the young and long waiters. However, our findings suggest the need for a further review in the light of observed differences in preferences amongst ethnic minorities, and also because those with dependents may be a further priority.</p

Evolutionary Map of the Universe: Tracing Clusters to High Redshift

The Australian SKA Pathfinder (ASKAP) is a new radio-telescope being built in Western Australia. One of the key surveys for which it is being built is EMU (Evolutionary Map of the Universe), which will make a deep (~10 {\mu}Jy/bm rms) radio continuum survey covering the entire sky as far North as +30\circ. EMU may be compared to the NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS), except that it will have about 45 times the sensitivity, and five times the resolution. EMU will also have much better sensitivity to diffuse emission than previous large surveys, and is expected to produce a large catalogue of relics, tailed galaxies, and haloes, and will increase the number of known clusters by a significant factor. Here we describe the EMU project and its impact on the astrophysics of clusters.Comment: Accepted by J. Astrophys. Ast

Use of mental health services among disaster survivors: predisposing factors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Given the high prevalence of mental health problems after disasters it is important to study health services utilization. This study examines predictors for mental health services (MHS) utilization among survivors of a man-made disaster in the Netherlands (May 2000).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Electronic records of survivors (n = 339; over 18 years and older) registered in a mental health service (MHS) were linked with general practice based electronic medical records (EMRs) of survivors and data obtained in surveys. EMR data were available from 16 months pre-disaster until 3 years post-disaster. Symptoms and diagnoses in the EMRs were coded according to the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC). Surveys were carried out 2–3 weeks and 18 months post-disaster, and included validated questionnaires on psychological distress, post-traumatic stress reactions and social functioning. Demographic and disaster-related variables were available. Predisposing factors for MHS utilization 0–18 months and 18–36 months post-disaster were examined using multiple logistic regression models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In multiple logistic models, adjusting for demographic and disaster related variables, MHS utilization was predicted by demographic variables (young age, immigrant, public health insurance, unemployment), disaster-related exposure (relocation and injuries), self-reported psychological problems and pre- and post-disaster physician diagnosed health problems (chronic diseases, musculoskeletal problems). After controlling for all health variables, disaster intrusions and avoidance reactions (OR:2.86; CI:1.48–5.53), hostility (OR:2.04; CI:1.28–3.25), pre-disaster chronic diseases (OR:1.82; CI:1.25–2.65), injuries as a result of the disaster (OR:1.80;CI:1.13–2.86), social functioning problems (OR:1.61;CI:1.05–2.44) and younger age (OR:0.98;CI:0.96–0.99) predicted MHS utilization within 18 months post-disaster. Furthermore, disaster intrusions and avoidance reactions (OR:2.29;CI:1.04–5.07) and hostility (OR:3.77;CI:1.51–9.40) predicted MHS utilization following 18 months post-disaster.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed that several demographic and disaster-related variables and self-reported and physician diagnosed health problems predicted post-disaster MHS-use. The most important factors to predict post-disaster MHS utilization were disaster intrusions and avoidance reactions and symptoms of hostility (which can be identified as symptoms of PTSD) and pre-disaster chronic diseases.</p

Genetic Dissection of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Signaling during Luteinizing Hormone-Induced Oocyte Maturation

Recent evidence that luteinizing hormone (LH) stimulation of ovulatory follicles causes transactivation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) has provided insights into the mechanisms of ovulation. However, the complete array of signals that promote oocyte reentry into the meiotic cell cycle in the follicle are still incompletely understood. To elucidate the signaling downstream of EGFR involved in oocyte maturation, we have investigated the LH responses in granulosa cells with targeted ablation of EGFR. Oocyte maturation and ovulation is disrupted when EGFR expression is progressively reduced. In granulosa cells from mice with either global or granulosa cell-specific disruption of EGFR signaling, LH-induced phosphorylation of MAPK3/1, p38MAPK, and connexin-43 is impaired. Although the LH-induced decrease in cGMP is EGFR-dependent in wild type follicles, LH still induces a decrease in cGMP in Egfrdelta/f Cyp19-Cre follicles. Thus compensatory mechanisms appear activated in the mutant. Spatial propagation of the LH signal in the follicle also is dependent on the EGF network, and likely is important for the control of signaling to the oocyte. Thus, multiple signals and redundant pathways contribute to regulating oocyte reentry into the cell cycle