Exploiting multi-core architectures for reduced-variance estimation with intractable likelihoods

© 2016 International Society for Bayesian Analysis. Many popular statistical models for complex phenomena are intractable, in the sense that the likelihood function cannot easily be evaluated. Bayesian estimation in this setting remains challenging, with a lack of computational methodology to fully exploit modern processing capabilities. In this paper we introduce novel control variates for intractable likelihoods that can dramatically reduce the Monte Carlo variance of Bayesian estimators. We prove that our control variates are well-defined and provide a positive variance reduction. Furthermore, we show how to optimise these control variates for variance reduction. The methodology is highly parallel and offers a route to exploit multi-core processing architectures that complements recent research in this direction. Indeed, our work shows that it may not be necessary to parallelise the sampling process itself in order to harness the potential of massively multi-core architectures. Simulation results presented on the Ising model, exponential random graph models and non-linear stochastic differential equation models support our theoretical findings

Bayesian Computation with Intractable Likelihoods

This article surveys computational methods for posterior inference with intractable likelihoods, that is where the likelihood function is unavailable in closed form, or where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible. We review recent developments in pseudo-marginal methods, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), the exchange algorithm, thermodynamic integration, and composite likelihood, paying particular attention to advancements in scalability for large datasets. We also mention R and MATLAB source code for implementations of these algorithms, where they are available.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1503.0806

Prime movers : mechanochemistry of mitotic kinesins

Mitotic spindles are self-organizing protein machines that harness teams of multiple force generators to drive chromosome segregation. Kinesins are key members of these force-generating teams. Different kinesins walk directionally along dynamic microtubules, anchor, crosslink, align and sort microtubules into polarized bundles, and influence microtubule dynamics by interacting with microtubule tips. The mechanochemical mechanisms of these kinesins are specialized to enable each type to make a specific contribution to spindle self-organization and chromosome segregation

Coupling of kinesin ATP turnover to translocation and microtubule regulation: one engine, many machines

The cycle of ATP turnover is integral to the action of motor proteins. Here we discuss how variation in this cycle leads to variation of function observed amongst members of the kinesin superfamily of microtubule associated motor proteins. Variation in the ATP turnover cycle among superfamily members can tune the characteristic kinesin motor to one of the range of microtubule-based functions performed by kinesins. The speed at which ATP is hydrolysed affects the speed of translocation. The ratio of rate constants of ATP turnover in relation to association and dissociation from the microtubule influence the processivity of translocation. Variation in the rate-limiting step of the cycle can reverse the way in which the motor domain interacts with the microtubule producing non-motile kinesins. Because the ATP turnover cycle is not fully understood for the majority of kinesins, much work remains to show how the kinesin engine functions in such a wide variety of molecular machines

Micronutrient fortification of food and its impact on woman and child health: A systematic review

Background: Vitamins and minerals are essential for growth and metabolism. The World Health Organization estimates that more than 2 billion people are deficient in key vitamins and minerals. Groups most vulnerable to these micronutrient deficiencies are pregnant and lactating women and young children, given their increased demands. Food fortification is one of the strategies that has been used safely and effectively to prevent vitamin and mineral deficiencies.Methods: A comprehensive search was done to identify all available evidence for the impact of fortification interventions. Studies were included if food was fortified with a single, dual or multiple micronutrients and impact of fortification was analyzed on the health outcomes and relevant biochemical indicators of women and children. We performed a meta-analysis of outcomes using Review Manager Software version 5.1.Results: Our systematic review identified 201 studies that we reviewed for outcomes of relevance. Fortification for children showed significant impacts on increasing serum micronutrient concentrations. Hematologic markers also improved, including hemoglobin concentrations, which showed a significant rise when food was fortified with vitamin A, iron and multiple micronutrients. Fortification with zinc had no significant adverse impact on hemoglobin levels. Multiple micronutrient fortification showed non-significant impacts on height for age, weight for age and weight for height Z-scores, although they showed positive trends. The results for fortification in women showed that calcium and vitamin D fortification had significant impacts in the post-menopausal age group. Iron fortification led to a significant increase in serum ferritin and hemoglobin levels in women of reproductive age and pregnant women. Folate fortification significantly reduced the incidence of congenital abnormalities like neural tube defects without increasing the incidence of twinning. The number of studies pooled for zinc and multiple micronutrients for women were few, though the evidence suggested benefit. There was a dearth of evidence for the impact of fortification strategies on morbidity and mortality outcomes in women and children.Conclusion: Fortification is potentially an effective strategy but evidence from the developing world is scarce. Programs need to assess the direct impact of fortification on morbidity and mortality

Dose-related effects of alcohol on cognitive functioning

We assessed the suitability of six applied tests of cognitive functioning to provide a single marker for dose-related alcohol intoxication. Numerous studies have demonstrated that alcohol has a deleterious effect on specific areas of cognitive processing but few have compared the effects of alcohol across a wide range of different cognitive processes. Adult participants (N = 56, 32 males, 24 females aged 18–45 years) were randomized to control or alcohol treatments within a mixed design experiment involving multiple-dosages at approximately one hour intervals (attained mean blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) of 0.00, 0.048, 0.082 and 0.10%), employing a battery of six psychometric tests; the Useful Field of View test (UFOV; processing speed together with directed attention); the Self-Ordered Pointing Task (SOPT; working memory); Inspection Time (IT; speed of processing independent from motor responding); the Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP; strategic optimization); the Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART; vigilance, response inhibition and psychomotor function); and the Trail-Making Test(TMT; cognitive flexibility and psychomotor function). Results demonstrated that impairment is not uniform across different domains of cognitive processing and that both the size of the alcohol effect and the magnitude of effect change across different dose levels are quantitatively different for different cognitive processes. Only IT met the criteria for a marker for wide-spread application: reliable dose-related decline in a basic process as a function of rising BAC level and easy to use non-invasive task properties.Mathew J. Dry, Nicholas R. Burns, Ted Nettelbeck, Aaron L. Farquharson and Jason M. Whit