Narrowing the Range of Future Climate Projections Using Historical Observations of Atmospheric CO2

This is the final version. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this recordUncertainty in the behavior of the carbon cycle is important in driving the range in future projected climate change. Previous comparisons of model responses with historical CO2 observations have suggested a strong constraint on simulated projections that could narrow the range considered plausible. This study uses a new 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of variants of an Earth system model for three future scenarios, which 1) explores a wider range of potential climate responses than before and 2) includes the impact of past uncertainty in carbon emissions on simulated trends. These two factors represent a more complete exploration of uncertainty, although they lead to a weaker constraint on the range of future CO2 concentrations as compared to earlier studies. Nevertheless, CO2 observations are shown to be effective at narrowing the distribution, excluding 30 of 57 simulations as inconsistent with historical CO2 changes. The perturbed model variants excluded are mainly at the high end of the future projected CO2 changes, with only 8 of the 26 variants projecting RCP8.5 2100 concentrations in excess of 1100 ppm retained. Interestingly, a minority of the high-end variants were able to capture historical CO2 trends, with the large-magnitude response emerging later in the century (owing to high climate sensitivities, strong carbon feedbacks, or both). Comparison with observed CO2 is effective at narrowing both the range and distribution of projections out to the mid-twenty-first century for all scenarios and to 2100 for a scenario with low emissions.This work was supported by the Joint U.K. DECC/DEFRA Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Chris Jones’s contribution was supported by the CRESCENDO project under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant Agreement 641816. Jo House was supported by a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship and EU FP7 Project LUC4C (603542). Stephen Sitch was supported by the EU FP7 through Project LUC4C (GA603542)

Development and formative evaluation of the e-Health implementation toolkit

<b>Background</b> The use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) or e-Health is seen as essential for a modern, cost-effective health service. However, there are well documented problems with implementation of e-Health initiatives, despite the existence of a great deal of research into how best to implement e-Health (an example of the gap between research and practice). This paper reports on the development and formative evaluation of an e-Health Implementation Toolkit (e-HIT) which aims to summarise and synthesise new and existing research on implementation of e-Health initiatives, and present it to senior managers in a user-friendly format.<p></p> <b>Results</b> The content of the e-HIT was derived by combining data from a systematic review of reviews of barriers and facilitators to implementation of e-Health initiatives with qualitative data derived from interviews of "implementers", that is people who had been charged with implementing an e-Health initiative. These data were summarised, synthesised and combined with the constructs from the Normalisation Process Model. The software for the toolkit was developed by a commercial company (RocketScience). Formative evaluation was undertaken by obtaining user feedback. There are three components to the toolkit - a section on background and instructions for use aimed at novice users; the toolkit itself; and the report generated by completing the toolkit. It is available to download from http://www.ucl.ac.uk/pcph/research/ehealth/documents/e-HIT.xls<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b> The e-HIT shows potential as a tool for enhancing future e-Health implementations. Further work is needed to make it fully web-enabled, and to determine its predictive potential for future implementations

Motivations and barriers to prosthesis users participation in physical activity, exercise and sport : a review of the literature

The UK will host the Paralympics in 2012 and the Commonwealth Games in 2014 showcasing the talents of elite athletes and aiming to inspire the population to become involved. However, low levels of physical activity (PA) are prevalent: only 40% of men and 28% of women meet the minimum UK recommendations. The limb absent population is no exception. To determine if people with limb amputations are participating in physical activity and sport; whether post-amputation activity levels match pre-amputation levels; and if there are motivations and barriers to participation. Study design: Literature review Five reviewers systematically search of peer reviewed and gray literature in seven bibliographic databases and the Cochrane Library. Results: Following rigorous elimination, 12 articles were finally included in the review and critically appraised. Four themes were identified: components, rehabilitation outcomes, body image and motivations and barriers to participation. People with limb absence are not participating in PA conducive to health benefits, and only a minority participate in exercise and sports. Participation following amputation does not mirror that of pre-amputation levels, and more barriers than motivations exist to adopting and maintaining a physically active lifestyle. This literature review aims to inform those involved in rehabilitation and ongoing care of those with limb absence about what motivates or precludes their participation in physical activity, exercise and sport. Such knowledge could be applied to improving health and well being in this population

Media coverage of climate change: an international comparison

We present an international comparison of broadsheet newspaper coverage of climate change. We employ two complementary theoretical lenses, multiple streams theory and institutional theory, to explore why climate change has become headline news in some countries but has received comparatively little coverage in others. The study utilises a worldwide sample across 41 different countries for the year 2008, covering 113 leading national broadsheet newspapers. A cross-sectional regression model is used to identify whether and how a range of contextual factors impact coverage of climate change. To a certain extent, a country’s direct exposure to climate change and the measures that have been taken to combat global warming influence the position of climate change on the media agenda. Crucially, however, we identify a number of contextual factors that impact climate change-related media coverage in different national contexts. In particular, we find a significantly positive relationship between regulatory quality and levels of media coverage. At the same time, unemployment trends are significantly negatively related to media attention to climate change. Gross domestic product per capita does not help to explain levels of climate change-related media coverage. In other words, climate change appears to have moved beyond simply being a ‘rich country issue’

Moment Closure - A Brief Review

Moment closure methods appear in myriad scientific disciplines in the modelling of complex systems. The goal is to achieve a closed form of a large, usually even infinite, set of coupled differential (or difference) equations. Each equation describes the evolution of one "moment", a suitable coarse-grained quantity computable from the full state space. If the system is too large for analytical and/or numerical methods, then one aims to reduce it by finding a moment closure relation expressing "higher-order moments" in terms of "lower-order moments". In this brief review, we focus on highlighting how moment closure methods occur in different contexts. We also conjecture via a geometric explanation why it has been difficult to rigorously justify many moment closure approximations although they work very well in practice.Comment: short survey paper (max 20 pages) for a broad audience in mathematics, physics, chemistry and quantitative biolog

A comparison of ultrasound measurements to assess carotid atherosclerosis development in subjects with and without type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Subjects with type 2 diabetes are at an increased risk of vascular complications. The use of carotid ultrasound remains an attractive, non-invasive method to monitor atherosclerotic disease progression and/or response to treatment in patients with type 2 diabetes, with intima-media thickness routinely used as the gold standard to detect pathology. However, alternative measurements, such as plaque area or volume, may represent a potentially more powerful approach. Thus, the objective of this study was to compare the traditional intima-media thickness measurement against the novel total plaque volume measurement in analyzing carotid atherosclerosis development in individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The case-control study included 49 Oji-Cree adults with diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance, aged 21–69, and 49 sex- and age-matched normoglycemic subjects. At baseline, metabolic variables were measured, including body mass index, waist circumference, total cholesterol:high density lipoprotein ratio, plasma triglycerides, plasma glucose, and serum insulin. Carotid ultrasound measurements, 7 years later, assessed carotid arterial intima-media thickness and total plaque volume. RESULTS: At baseline, the two groups were well matched for smoking habits, hypertension, body mass index, and waist circumference. Differences were noted in baseline measurements of total cholesterol:high density lipoprotein (P = 0.0006), plasma triglycerides (P < 0.0001) and fasting glucose (P < 0.0001). After seven years, carotid ultrasound scans revealed that total plaque volume measurements (P = 0.037), but not intima-media thickness measurements, were higher in subjects with diabetes/impaired glucose tolerance compared to the normoglycemic controls. Correlation between intima-media thickness and total plaque volume was moderate. Based on our study findings, to achieve power levels >0.70 when comparing intima-media thickness measurements for diabetics versus non-diabetics, thousands of study subjects are required. For comparing total plaque volume measurements, only hundreds of study subjects are required. CONCLUSION: The development of atherosclerotic plaque is greater in subjects with diabetes/impaired glucose tolerance. Total plaque volume appears to capture the atherosclerotic disease burden more effectively in subjects with type 2 diabetes, and would be an appropriate outcome measure for studies aimed at changing the diabetic milieu

The Effects of Carbon Dioxide Removal on the Carbon Cycle

Increasing atmospheric CO2 is having detrimental effects on the Earth system. Societies have recognized that anthropogenic CO2 release must be rapidly reduced to avoid potentially catastrophic impacts. Achieving this via emissions reductions alone will be very difficult. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has been suggested to complement and compensate for insufficient emissions reductions, through increasing natural carbon sinks, engineering new carbon sinks, or combining natural uptake with engineered storage. Here, we review the carbon cycle responses to different CDR approaches and highlight the often-overlooked interaction and feedbacks between carbon reservoirs that ultimately determines CDR efficacy. We also identify future research that will be needed if CDR is to play a role in climate change mitigation, these include coordinated studies to better understand (i) the underlying mechanisms of each method, (ii) how they could be explicitly simulated, (iii) how reversible changes in the climate and carbon cycle are, and (iv) how to evaluate and monitor CDR

Regional disparities in infant mortality in Canada: a reversal of egalitarian trends

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although national health insurance plans and social programs introduced in the 1960s led to reductions in regional disparities in infant mortality in Canada, it is unclear if such patterns prevailed in the 1990s when the health care and related systems were under fiscal duress. This study examined regional patterns of change in infant mortality in Canada in recent decades.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analysed regional changes in crude infant mortality rates and in infant mortality rates among live births with a birth weight ≥ 500 g and ≥ 1,000 g in Canada from 1945 to 2002. Associations between baseline infant mortality rates in the provinces and territories (e.g., in 1985–89) and the change observed in infant mortality rates over the subsequent period (e.g., between 1985–89 and 1995–99) were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Trends in regional disparities were also assessed by calculating period-specific rate ratios between provinces/territories with the highest versus the lowest infant mortality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Provincial/territorial infant mortality rates in 1945–49 were not correlated with changes in infant mortality over the next 10 years (rho = 0.01, P = 0.99). However, there was a strong negative correlation between infant mortality rates in 1965–69 and the subsequent decline in infant mortality (rho = - 0.85, P = 0.002). Provinces/territories with higher infant mortality rates in 1965–69 (Northwest Territories 64.7 vs British Columbia 20.7 per 1,000 live births) experienced relatively larger reductions in infant mortality between 1965–69 and 1975–79 (53.7% decline in the Northwest Territories vs a 36.6% decline in British Columbia). This pattern was reversed in the more recent decades. Provinces/territories with higher infant mortality rates ≥ 500 g in 1985–89 experience relatively smaller reductions in infant mortality between 1985–89 and 2000–02 (rho = 0.82, P = 0.004). The infant mortality ≥ 500 g rate ratio (contrasting the province/territory with the highest versus lowest infant mortality) was 3.2 in 1965–69, 2.4 in 1975–79, 2.2 in 1985–89, 3.1 in 1995–99 and 4.1 in 2000–02.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Fiscal constraints in the 1990s led to a reversal of provincial/territorial patterns of change in infant mortality in Canada and to an increase in regional health disparities.</p