General closed-form basket option pricing bounds

This article presents lower and upper bounds on the prices of basket options for a general class of continuous-time financial models. The techniques we propose are applicable whenever the joint characteristic function of the vector of log-returns is known. Moreover, the basket value is not required to be positive. We test our new price approximations on different multivariate models, allowing for jumps and stochastic volatility. Numerical examples are discussed and benchmarked against Monte Carlo simulations. All bounds are general and do not require any additional assumption on the characteristic function, so our methods may be employed also to non-affine models. All bounds involve the computation of one-dimensional Fourier transforms; hence, they do not suffer from the curse of dimensionality and can be applied also to high-dimensional problems where most existing methods fail. In particular, we study two kinds of price approximations: an accurate lower bound based on an approximating set and a fast bounded approximation based on the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality. We also show how to improve Monte Carlo accuracy by using one of our bounds as a control variate

ANALYSES OF WATER BALANCE AND ANNUAL, SEASONAL AND MONTHLY PLUVIOMETRIC VARIABILITY IN PIONEER NORTHERN PARANÁ STATE MESOREGION, BRAZIL

The rainfall variability has a key relevance on human activities. The frequency of extreme events, such as droughts and intense rains, results in severe impacts on crops, urban activities, water resources, health and the environment on a local or regional scale. The estimation of the frequency, impacts and severity of these events is essential for planning human activities. The purpose of this work was to analyze the rainfall variability and the water balance in the Northern Paraná state Mesoregion (PNPM) in the annual, seasonal and monthly time scales. For this, we used the annual, seasonal, monthly and daily time scales with the time from 1976 to 2018. For the better understanding, we used analysis using thematic maps with regionalization through interpolations and isohyets, box plot and dendogram. A large regional discrepancy in precipitation was identified in the analyzed mesoregion. In all the time scales analyzed in the region, there were alarming variations, which can bring perspectives for regional planning. We verified the Northwestern portion of the region, near to the municipality of Leópolis, had the lowest rainfall and the worst scenarios evaluated in the water balance, while the upper portion, in the Southwest, near Sapopema, presented more rain and less risk of drought. The average climatological water balance in the region showed a low deficit in the month of August, however when testing scenarios of dry years, the entire region showed water deficiency throughout the year

EXTREME EVENTS OF PRECIPITATION AND OCCURRENCES OF FLOODING, RUNOFF AND INUNDATION IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION OF CURITIBA, BRAZIL

Extreme precipitation events cause severe damage in both urban and rural areas. The objective of this work was to analyze rainfall variability, understand the dynamics of extreme precipitation events and to find out the occurrence of floods, runoff and inundation in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba (MRC). Data from 39 rainfall stations distributed in the MRC area were used, as well as data by municipality of occurrence of flooding, runoff or inundation, from 1976 to 2018. Extreme precipitation events were identified in all months, most frequently in the summer. Totaling 48 decrees of emergency or public calamity and 397,516 people affected by one of the three socioenvironmental disasters.Extreme precipitation events cause severe damage in both urban and rural areas. The objective of this work was to analyze rainfall variability, understand the dynamics of extreme precipitation events and to find out the occurrence of floods, runoff and inundation in the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba (MRC). Data from 39 rainfall stations distributed in the MRC area were used, as well as data by municipality of occurrence of flooding, runoff or inundation, from 1976 to 2018. Extreme precipitation events were identified in all months, most frequently in the summer. Totaling 48 decrees of emergency or public calamity and 397,516 people affected by one of the three socioenvironmental disasters

PLUVIOMETRIC VARIABILITY AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND DROUGHTS EVENTS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH MESOREGION OF PARANÁ

Extreme precipitation events cause severe damage in both urban and rural areas. The purpose of this work was to analyze rainfall variability and detect the extremes of precipitation and droughts occurrences and relate them to ENSO phenomena in the Central North Mesoregion of Paraná (MRNCP). We used data from 44 weather stations distributed in the area of the study, from 1976 to 2018. Based on the results, it was identified the precipitation has regional discrepancies, concentrating the highest rainfall in the southern portion. The highest annual precipitation was highly correlated with the periods identified as El Niño, and then in neutrality. There were large occurrences of drought by decent, with emphasis on the winter months, especially in August. High rainfall heights recorded within 24 hours in all regions analyzed, especially in the summer and spring months

Psicologia e práticas psicossociais: narrativas e concepções de psicólogos de Centros de Atenção Psicossocial

The psychosocial care, current care model in mental health in Brazil, emphasizes interdisciplinary, inter-sectoral and territorial actions. This paper aims to present conceptions of psychologists from the Centers for Psychosocial Care of a city on Parana state, about the psychosocial practices developed in their daily actions. Semi-structured individual interviews and group meetings were conducted, using the technique of Operating Group of Pichón-Rivière. The interviews and groups were recorded, transcribed and qualitatively analyzed. Results point the dichotomy between clinical and psychosocial practices in psychology and the professional identity of the participants tied to traditional clinical psychology model. Some psychosocial practices are gradually being recognized by professionals as legitimate practice of psychology, and could be considered amplified clinic in psychology. It is concluded that for the effectiveness of psychosocial practices, it is essential to improve graduation courses and permanent education strategies for mental health professionals

PLUVIOMETRIC VARIABILITY AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND DROUGHTS EVENTS IN THE CENTRAL NORTH MESOREGION OF PARANÁ

Extreme precipitation events cause severe damage in both urban and rural areas. The purpose of this work was to analyze rainfall variability and detect the extremes of precipitation and droughts occurrences and relate them to ENSO phenomena in the Central North Mesoregion of Paraná (MRNCP). We used data from 44 weather stations distributed in the area of the study, from 1976 to 2018. Based on the results, it was identified the precipitation has regional discrepancies, concentrating the highest rainfall in the southern portion. The highest annual precipitation was highly correlated with the periods identified as El Niño, and then in neutrality. There were large occurrences of drought by decent, with emphasis on the winter months, especially in August. High rainfall heights recorded within 24 hours in all regions analyzed, especially in the summer and spring months.Extreme precipitation events cause severe damage in both urban and rural areas. The purpose of this work was to analyze rainfall variability and detect the extremes of precipitation and droughts occurrences and relate them to ENSO phenomena in the Central North Mesoregion of Paraná (MRNCP). We used data from 44 weather stations distributed in the area of the study, from 1976 to 2018. Based on the results, it was identified the precipitation has regional discrepancies, concentrating the highest rainfall in the southern portion. The highest annual precipitation was highly correlated with the periods identified as El Niño, and then in neutrality. There were large occurrences of drought by decent, with emphasis on the winter months, especially in August. High rainfall heights recorded within 24 hours in all regions analyzed, especially in the summer and spring months

ANALYSES OF WATER BALANCE AND ANNUAL, SEASONAL AND MONTHLY PLUVIOMETRIC VARIABILITY IN PIONEER NORTHERN PARANÁ STATE MESOREGION, BRAZIL

The rainfall variability has a key relevance on human activities. The frequency of extreme events, such as droughts and intense rains, results in severe impacts on crops, urban activities, water resources, health and the environment on a local or regional scale. The estimation of the frequency, impacts and severity of these events is essential for planning human activities. The purpose of this work was to analyze the rainfall variability and the water balance in the Northern Paraná state Mesoregion (PNPM) in the annual, seasonal and monthly time scales. For this, we used the annual, seasonal, monthly and daily time scales with the time from 1976 to 2018. For the better understanding, we used analysis using thematic maps with regionalization through interpolations and isohyets, box plot and dendogram. A large regional discrepancy in precipitation was identified in the analyzed mesoregion. In all the time scales analyzed in the region, there were alarming variations, which can bring perspectives for regional planning. We verified the Northwestern portion of the region, near to the municipality of Leópolis, had the lowest rainfall and the worst scenarios evaluated in the water balance, while the upper portion, in the Southwest, near Sapopema, presented more rain and less risk of drought. The average climatological water balance in the region showed a low deficit in the month of August, however when testing scenarios of dry years, the entire region showed water deficiency throughout the year

Clinical metabolomics identifies blood serum branched chain amino acids as potential predictive biomarkers for chronic graft vs. host disease

The allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation procedure-the only curative therapy for many types of hematological cancers-is increasing, and graft vs. host disease (GVHD) is the main cause of morbidity and mortality after transplantation. Currently, GVHD diagnosis is clinically performed. Whereas, biomarker panels have been developed for acute GVHD (aGVHD), there is a lack of information about the chronic form (cGVHD). Using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and gas chromatography coupled to time-of-flight (GC-TOF) mass spectrometry, this study prospectively evaluated the serum metabolome of 18 Brazilian patients who had undergone allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We identified and quantified 63 metabolites and performed the metabolomic profile on day -10, day 0, day +10 and day +100, in reference to day of transplantation. Patients did not present aGVHD or cGVHD clinical symptoms at sampling times. From 18 patients analyzed, 6 developed cGVHD. The branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) leucine and isoleucine were reduced and the sulfur-containing metabolite (cystine) was increased at day +10 and day +100. The area under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves was higher than 0.79. BCAA findings were validated by liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) in 49 North American patients at day +100; however, cystine findings were not statistically significant in this patient set. Our results highlight the importance of multi-temporal and multivariate biomarker panels for predicting and understanding cGVHD9FUNDAÇÃO DE AMPARO À PESQUISA DO ESTADO DE SÃO PAULO - FAPESP2011/06441-