Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

yesWe derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

Comparison of glucose tolerance in renal transplant recipients and hemodialysis patients

BACKGROUND: Impaired glucose tolerance is a risk factor for atherosclerosis in hemodialysis patients and renal transplant recipients. METHODS: To check the relationship of impaired glucose tolerance with the other atherosclerotic risk factors, fasting blood sugar and the standard two hour glucose tolerance test, serum tryglyceride, serum cholesterol, cyclosporine through level (in renal tranpslant recipients) and hemoglobin A1C were measured in 55 stable renal transplant recipients, 55 hemodialysis patients and 55 healthy controls with similar demographic characteristics. Patients with diabetes mellitus and propranolol consumers were excluded. The mean age and female to male ratio were 39 +/- 7 years and 23/22, respectively. RESULTS: Four of the renal transplant recipients and twelve of the hemodialysis patients had impaired glucose tolerance. Significant linear correlation was observed with body mass index and IGT only in hemodialysis patients (r = 0.4, p = 0.05). Glucose tolerance also had a significant correlation with triglyceride levels (217.2 +/- 55 mg/dl in hemodialysis patients vs. 214.3 +/- 13 mg/dl in renal transplant recipients and 100.2 +/- 18 mg/dl in control groups, p = 0.001). The glucose tolerance had significant relationship with higher serum cholesterol levels only in the renal transplant recipients (269.7 +/- 54 in renal transplant recipients vs. 199.2 +/- 36.6 mg/dl in hemodialysis and 190.5 +/- 34 mg/dl in control groups, p = 0.0001). In the renal transplant recipients, a linear correlation was observed with glucose tolerance and both the serum cyclosporine level (r = 0.9, p = 0.001) and the hemoglobin A1C concentration (6.2 +/- 0.9 g/dl). The later correlation was also observed in the hemodialysis patients (6.4 +/- 0.7 g/dl; r = 67, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that although fasting blood sugar is normal in non-diabetic renal transplant and hemodialysis patients, impaired glucose tolerance could be associated with the other atherosclerotic risk factors

Herd-level risk factors associated with Leptospira Hardjo seroprevalence in Beef/Suckler herds in the Republic of Ireland

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of the present study was to investigate risk factors for herd seropositivity to <it>Leptospira </it>Hardjo in Irish suckler herds. Herds were considered eligible for the study if they were unvaccinated and contained ≥ 9 breeding animals of beef breed which were ≥ 12 months of age. The country was divided into six regions using county boundaries. Herd and individual animal prevalence data were available from the results of a concurrent seroprevalence study. Herds were classified as either "Free from Infection" or "Infected" based on a minimum expected 40% within-herd prevalence.</p> <p>Questionnaires were posted to 320 farmers chosen randomly from 6 regions, encompassing 25 counties, of the Republic of Ireland. The questionnaire was designed to obtain information about vaccination; reproductive disease; breeding herd details; the presence of recognized risk factors from previous studies; and husbandry on each farm. Data collected from 128 eligible herds were subjected to statistical analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Following the use of Pearson's Chi-Square Test, those variables associated with a herd being "infected" with a significance level of P < 0.2 were considered as candidates for multivariable logistic regression modelling. Breeding herd size was found to be a statistically significant risk factor after multivariable logistic regression. The odds of a herd being positive for leptospiral infection were 5.47 times higher (P = 0.032) in herds with 14 to 23 breeding animals compared with herds with ≤ 13 breeding animals, adjusting for Region, and 7.08 times higher (P = 0.033) in herds with 32.6 to 142 breeding animals.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Breeding herd size was identified as a significant risk factor for leptospiral infection in Irish suckler herds, which was similar to findings of previous studies of leptospirosis in dairy herds.</p

Cyclical changes in seroprevalence of leptospirosis in California sea lions: endemic and epidemic disease in one host species?

BackgroundLeptospirosis is a zoonotic disease infecting a broad range of mammalian hosts, and is re-emerging globally. California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) have experienced recurrent outbreaks of leptospirosis since 1970, but it is unknown whether the pathogen persists in the sea lion population or is introduced repeatedly from external reservoirs.MethodsWe analyzed serum samples collected over an 11-year period from 1344 California sea lions that stranded alive on the California coast, using the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) for antibodies to Leptospira interrogans serovar Pomona. We evaluated seroprevalence among yearlings as a measure of incidence in the population, and characterized antibody persistence times based on temporal changes in the distribution of titer scores. We conducted multinomial logistic regression to determine individual risk factors for seropositivity with high and low titers.ResultsThe serosurvey revealed cyclical patterns in seroprevalence to L. interrogans serovar Pomona, with 4-5 year periodicity and peak seroprevalence above 50%. Seroprevalence in yearling sea lions was an accurate index of exposure among all age classses, and indicated on-going exposure to leptospires in non-outbreak years. Analysis of titer decay rates showed that some individuals probably maintain high titers for more than a year following exposure.ConclusionThis study presents results of an unprecedented long-term serosurveillance program in marine mammals. Our results suggest that leptospirosis is endemic in California sea lions, but also causes periodic epidemics of acute disease. The findings call into question the classical dichotomy between maintenance hosts of leptospirosis, which experience chronic but largely asymptomatic infections, and accidental hosts, which suffer acute illness or death as a result of disease spillover from reservoir species

Intimate Partner Violence and Health Care-Seeking Patterns Among Female Users of Urban Adolescent Clinics

To assess the prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and associations with health care-seeking patterns among female patients of adolescent clinics, and to examine screening for IPV and IPV disclosure patterns within these clinics. A self-administered, anonymous, computerized survey was administered to female clients ages 14–20 years (N = 448) seeking care in five urban adolescent clinics, inquiring about IPV history, reasons for seeking care, and IPV screening by and IPV disclosure to providers. Two in five (40%) female urban adolescent clinic patients had experienced IPV, with 32% reporting physical and 21% reporting sexual victimization. Among IPV survivors, 45% reported abuse in their current or most recent relationship. IPV prevalence was equally high among those visiting clinics for reproductive health concerns as among those seeking care for other reasons. IPV victimization was associated with both poor current health status (AOR 1.57, 95% CI 1.03–2.40) and having foregone care in the past year (AOR 2.59, 95% CI 1.20–5.58). Recent IPV victimization was associated only with past 12 month foregone care (AOR 2.02, 95% CI 1.18–3.46). A minority (30%) reported ever being screened for IPV in a clinical setting. IPV victimization is pervasive among female adolescent clinic attendees regardless of visit type, yet IPV screening by providers appears low. Patients reporting poor health status and foregone care are more likely to have experienced IPV. IPV screening and interventions tailored for female patients of adolescent clinics are needed

A new model for health care delivery

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The health care delivery system in the United States is facing cost and quality pressures that will require fundamental changes to remain viable. The optimal structures of the relationships between the hospital, medical school, and physicians have not been determined but are likely to have a large impact on the future of healthcare delivery. Because it is generally agreed that academic medical centers will play a role in the sustainability of this future system, a fundamental understanding of the relative contributions of the stakeholders is important as well as creativity in developing novel strategies to achieve a shared vision.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Core competencies of each of the stakeholders (the hospital, the medical school and the physicians) must complement the others and should act synergistically. At the same time, the stakeholders should determine the common core values and should be able to make a meaningful contribution to the delivery of health care.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>Health care needs to achieve higher quality and lower cost. Therefore, in order for physicians, medical schools, and hospitals to serve the needs of society in a gratifying way, there will need to be change. There needs to be more scientific and social advances. It is obvious that there is a real and urgent need for relationship building among the professionals whose duty it is to provide these services.</p

Recovery from depressive symptoms, state anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder in women exposed to physical and psychological, but not to psychological intimate partner violence alone: A longitudinal study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is well established that intimate male partner violence (IPV) has a high impact on women's mental health. It is necessary to further investigate this impact longitudinally to assess the factors that contribute to its recovery or deterioration. The objective of this study was to assess the course of depressive, anxiety and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and suicidal behavior over a three-year follow-up in female victims of IPV.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Women (n = 91) who participated in our previous cross-sectional study, and who had been either physically/psychologically (n = 33) or psychologically abused (n = 23) by their male partners, were evaluated three years later. A nonabused control group of women (n = 35) was included for comparison. Information about mental health status and lifestyle variables was obtained through face-to-face structured interviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Results of the follow-up study indicated that while women exposed to physical/psychological IPV recovered their mental health status with a significant decrease in depressive, anxiety and PTSD symptoms, no recovery occurred in women exposed to psychological IPV alone. The evolution of IPV was also different: while it continued across both time points in 65.21% of psychologically abused women, it continued in only 12.12% of physically/psychologically abused women while it was reduced to psychological IPV in 51.5%. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that cessation of physical IPV and perceived social support contributed to mental health recovery, while a high perception of lifetime events predicted the continuation of PTSD symptoms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study shows that the pattern of mental health recovery depends on the type of IPV that the women had been exposed to. While those experiencing physical/psychological IPV have a higher likelihood of undergoing a cessation or reduction of IPV over time and, therefore, could recover, women exposed to psychological IPV alone have a high probability of continued exposure to the same type of IPV with a low possibility of recovery. Thus, women exposed to psychological IPV alone need more help to escape from IPV and to recuperate their mental health. Longitudinal studies are needed to improve knowledge of factors promoting or impeding health recovery to guide the formulation of policy at individual, social and criminal justice levels.</p