The role of expertise in dynamic risk assessment: A reflection of the problem-solving strategies used by experienced fireground commanders

Although the concept of dynamic risk assessment has in recent times become more topical in the training manuals of most high risk domains, only a few empirical studies have reported how experts actually carry out this crucial task. The knowledge gap between research and practice in this area therefore calls for more empirical investigation within the naturalistic environment. In this paper, we present and discuss the problem solving strategies employed by sixteen experienced operational firefighters using a qualitative knowledge elicitation tool — the critical decision method. Findings revealed that dynamic risk assessment is not merely a process of weighing the risks of a proposed course of action against its benefits, but rather an experiential and pattern recognition process. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of designing training curriculum for the less experienced officers using the elicited expert knowledge

Information processing and intuitive decision-making on the fireground: towards a model of expert intuition

In addition to other cognitive tasks that need attending to, experienced fireground commanders are also faced with a crucial task of identifying various environmental and informational cues that could affect their performance on the fireground. Although these cues play a crucial role in activating the pattern recognition or intuitive decision-making process, the major challenge remains that they usually emerge from multiple sources, thereby increasing the cognitive load in working memory. Previous studies have shown that attending to multiple informational sources has serious implications for intuitive decision-making as it then becomes more difficult to select the most relevant cues amidst the rapidly evolving conditions. In order to determine how firefighters cope with this difficult task of processing information from multiple sources, 16 experienced fireground commanders were interviewed using a semi-structured critical decision method protocol. Following the insights derived from the knowledge elicitation process, this paper presents and describes an expert intuition model, which we termed the information filtering and intuitive decision-making model. The model attempts to conceptualize how experienced firefighters scan through multiple information sources from which they are then able to select the most relevant cues that eventually aid the development of workable action plans

Overview of the JET results

Since the installation of an ITER-like wall, the JET programme has focused on the consolidation of ITER design choices and the preparation for ITER operation, with a specific emphasis given to the bulk tungsten melt experiment, which has been crucial for the final decision on the material choice for the day-one tungsten divertor in ITER. Integrated scenarios have been progressed with the re-establishment of long-pulse, high-confinement H-modes by optimizing the magnetic configuration and the use of ICRH to avoid tungsten impurity accumulation. Stationary discharges with detached divertor conditions and small edge localized modes have been demonstrated by nitrogen seeding. The differences in confinement and pedestal behaviour before and after the ITER-like wall installation have been better characterized towards the development of high fusion yield scenarios in DT. Post-mortem analyses of the plasma-facing components have confirmed the previously reported low fuel retention obtained by gas balance and shown that the pattern of deposition within the divertor has changed significantly with respect to the JET carbon wall campaigns due to the absence of thermally activated chemical erosion of beryllium in contrast to carbon. Transport to remote areas is almost absent and two orders of magnitude less material is found in the divertor

Micro ion beam analysis for the erosion of beryllium marker tiles in a tokamak limiter

Beryllium limiter marker tiles were exposed to plasma in the Joint European Torus to diagnose the erosion of main chamber wall materials. A limiter marker tile consists of a beryllium coating layer (7-9 mu m) on the top of bulk beryllium, with a nickel interlayer (2-3 mu m) between them. The thickness variation of the beryllium coating layer, after exposure to plasma, could indicate the erosion measured by ion beam analysis with backscattering spectrometry. However, interpretations from broad beam backscattering spectra were limited by the non-uniform surface structures. Therefore, micro-ion beam analysis (mu-IBA) with 3 MeV proton beam for Elastic back scattering spectrometry (EBS) and PIXE was used to scan samples. The spot size was in the range of 3-10 mu m. Scanned areas were analysed with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) as well. Combining results from mu-IBA and SEM, we obtained local spectra from carefully chosen areas on which the surface structures were relatively uniform. Local spectra suggested that the scanned area (approximate to 600 mu m x 1200 mu m) contained regions with serious erosion with only 2-3 mu m coating beryllium left, regions with intact marker tile, and droplets with 90% beryllium. The nonuniform erosion, droplets mainly formed by beryllium, and the possible mixture of beryllium and nickel were the major reasons that confused interpretation from broad beam EBS

14 MeV calibration of JET neutron detectors-phase 1: Calibration and characterization of the neutron source

In view of the planned DT operations at JET, a calibration of the JET neutron monitors at 14 MeV neutron energy is needed using a 14 MeV neutron generator deployed inside the vacuum vessel by the JET remote handling system. The target accuracy of this calibration is 10% as also required by ITER, where a precise neutron yield measurement is important, e.g. for tritium accountancy. To achieve this accuracy, the 14 MeV neutron generator selected as the calibration source has been fully characterised and calibrated prior to the in-vessel calibration of the JET monitors. This paper describes the measurements performed using different types of neutron detectors, spectrometers, calibrated long counters and activation foils which allowed us to obtain the neutron emission rate and the anisotropy of the neutron generator, i.e.The neutron flux and energy spectrum dependence on emission angle, and to derive the absolute emission rate in 4π sr. The use of high resolution diamond spectrometers made it possible to resolve the complex features of the neutron energy spectra resulting from the mixed D/T beam ions reacting with the D/T nuclei present in the neutron generator target. As the neutron generator is not a stable neutron source, several monitoring detectors were attached to it by means of an ad hoc mechanical structure to continuously monitor the neutron emission rate during the in-vessel calibration. These monitoring detectors, two diamond diodes and activation foils, have been calibrated in terms of neutrons/counts within ± 5% total uncertainty. A neutron source routine has been developed, able to produce the neutron spectra resulting from all possible reactions occurring with the D/T ions in the beam impinging on the Ti D/T target. The neutron energy spectra calculated by combining the source routine with a MCNP model of the neutron generator have been validated by the measurements. These numerical tools will be key in analysing the results from the in-vessel calibration and to derive the response of the JET neutron detectors to DT plasma neutrons starting from the response to the generator neutrons, and taking into account all the calibration circumstances

Investigation of deuterium trapping and release in the JET divertor during the third ILW campaign using TDS

Selected set of samples from JET ITER-Like Wall (JET-ILW) divertor tiles exposed in 2015-2016 has been analysed using Thermal Desorption Spectrometry (TDS). The deuterium (D) amounts obtained with TDS were compared with Nuclear Reaction Analysis (NRA). The highest amount of D was found on the top part of inner divertor which has regions with the thickest deposited layers as for divertor tiles removed in 2014. This area resides deep in the scrape-off layer and plasma configurations for the second (ILW-2, 2013-2014) and the third (ILW-3, 2015-2016) JET-ILW campaigns were similar. Agreement between TDS and NRA is good on the apron of Tile 1 and on the upper vertical region whereas on the lower vertical region of Tile 1 the NRA results are clearly smaller than the TDS results. Inner divertor Tile 3 has somewhat less D than Tiles 0 and 1, and the D amount decreases towards the lower part of the tile. The D retention at the divertor inner and outer corner regions is not symmetric as there is more D retention poloidally at the inner than at the outer divertor corner. In most cases the TDS spectra for the ILW-3 samples are different from the corresponding ILW-2 spectra because HD and D-2 release occurs at higher temperatures than from the ILW-2 samples indicating that the low energy traps have been emptied during the plasma operations and that D is either in the energetically deep traps or located deeper in the sample

Direct gyrokinetic comparison of pedestal transport in JET with carbon and ITER-like walls

This paper compares the gyrokinetic instabilities and transport in two representative JET pedestals, one (pulse 78697) from the JET configuration with a carbon wall (C) and another (pulse 92432) from after the installation of JET's ITER-like Wall (ILW). The discharges were selected for a comparison of JET-ILW and JET-C discharges with good confinement at high current (3 MA, corresponding also to low rho(*)) and retain the distinguishing features of JET-C and JET-ILW, notably, decreased pedestal top temperature for JET-ILW. A comparison of the profiles and heating power reveals a stark qualitative difference between the discharges: the JET-ILW pulse (92432) requires twice the heating power, at a gas rate of 1.9 x 10(22) e s(-1), to sustain roughly half the temperature gradient of the JET-C pulse (78697), operated at zero gas rate. This points to heat transport as a central component of the dynamics limiting the JET-ILW pedestal and reinforces the following emerging JET-ILW pedestal transport paradigm, which is proposed for further examination by both theory and experiment. ILW conditions modify the density pedestal in ways that decrease the normalized pedestal density gradient a/L-n, often via an outward shift in relation to the temperature pedestal. This is attributable to some combination of direct metal wall effects and the need for increased fueling to mitigate tungsten contamination. The modification to the density profile increases eta = L-n/L-T, thereby producing more robust ion temperature gradient (ITG) and electron temperature gradient driven instability. The decreased pedestal gradients for JET-ILW (92432) also result in a strongly reduced E x B shear rate, further enhancing the ion scale turbulence. Collectively, these effects limit the pedestal temperature and demand more heating power to achieve good pedestal performance. Our simulations, consistent with basic theoretical arguments, find higher ITG turbulence, stronger stiffness, and higher pedestal transport in the ILW plasma at lower rho(*)

Overview of the JET results

Since the last IAEA Conference JET has been in operation for one year with a programmatic focus on the qualification of ITER operating scenarios, the consolidation of ITER design choices and preparation for plasma operation with the ITER-like wall presently being installed in JET. Good progress has been achieved, including stationary ELMy H-mode operation at 4.5 MA. The high confinement hybrid scenario has been extended to high triangularity, lower ρ*and to pulse lengths comparable to the resistive time. The steady-state scenario has also been extended to lower ρ*and ν*and optimized to simultaneously achieve, under stationary conditions, ITER-like values of all other relevant normalized parameters. A dedicated helium campaign has allowed key aspects of plasma control and H-mode operation for the ITER non-activated phase to be evaluated. Effective sawtooth control by fast ions has been demonstrated with3He minority ICRH, a scenario with negligible minority current drive. Edge localized mode (ELM) control studies using external n = 1 and n = 2 perturbation fields have found a resonance effect in ELM frequency for specific q95values. Complete ELM suppression has, however, not been observed, even with an edge Chirikov parameter larger than 1. Pellet ELM pacing has been demonstrated and the minimum pellet size needed to trigger an ELM has been estimated. For both natural and mitigated ELMs a broadening of the divertor ELM-wetted area with increasing ELM size has been found. In disruption studies with massive gas injection up to 50% of the thermal energy could be radiated before, and 20% during, the thermal quench. Halo currents could be reduced by 60% and, using argon/deuterium and neon/deuterium gas mixtures, runaway electron generation could be avoided. Most objectives of the ITER-like ICRH antenna have been demonstrated; matching with closely packed straps, ELM resilience, scattering matrix arc detection and operation at high power density (6.2 MW m-2) and antenna strap voltages (42 kV). Coupling measurements are in very good agreement with TOPICA modelling. \ua9 2011 IAEA, Vienna