Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic priorities have focused on prevention, detection, and response. Beyond morbidity and mortality, pandemics carry secondary impacts, such as children orphaned or bereft of their caregivers. Such children often face adverse consequences, including poverty, abuse, and institutionalisation. We provide estimates for the magnitude of this problem resulting from COVID-19 and describe the need for resource allocation. METHODS: We used mortality and fertility data to model minimum estimates and rates of COVID-19-associated deaths of primary or secondary caregivers for children younger than 18 years in 21 countries. We considered parents and custodial grandparents as primary caregivers, and co-residing grandparents or older kin (aged 60–84 years) as secondary caregivers. To avoid overcounting, we adjusted for possible clustering of deaths using an estimated secondary attack rate and age-specific infection–fatality ratios for SARS-CoV-2. We used these estimates to model global extrapolations for the number of children who have experienced COVID-19-associated deaths of primary and secondary caregivers. FINDINGS: Globally, from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, we estimate 1 134 000 children (95% credible interval 884 000–1 185 000) experienced the death of primary caregivers, including at least one parent or custodial grandparent. 1 562 000 children (1 299 000–1 683 000) experienced the death of at least one primary or secondary caregiver. Countries in our study set with primary caregiver death rates of at least one per 1000 children included Peru (10·2 per 1000 children), South Africa (5·1), Mexico (3·5), Brazil (2·4), Colombia (2·3), Iran (1·7), the USA (1·5), Argentina (1·1), and Russia (1·0). Numbers of children orphaned exceeded numbers of deaths among those aged 15–50 years. Between two and five times more children had deceased fathers than deceased mothers. INTERPRETATION: Orphanhood and caregiver deaths are a hidden pandemic resulting from COVID-19-associated deaths. Accelerating equitable vaccine delivery is key to prevention. Psychosocial and economic support can help families to nurture children bereft of caregivers and help to ensure that institutionalisation is avoided. These data show the need for an additional pillar of our response: prevent, detect, respond, and care for children. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Medical Research Council), UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London

Global, regional, and national minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, by age and family circumstance up to Oct 31, 2021: an updated modelling study

BACKGROUND: In the 6 months following our estimates from March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2021, the proliferation of new coronavirus variants, updated mortality data, and disparities in vaccine access increased the amount of children experiencing COVID-19-associated orphanhood. To inform responses, we aimed to model the increases in numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death, as well as the cumulative orphanhood age-group distribution and circumstance (maternal or paternal orphanhood). METHODS: We used updated excess mortality and fertility data to model increases in minimum estimates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths from our original study period of March 1, 2020-April 30, 2021, to include the new period of May 1-Oct 31, 2021, for 21 countries. Orphanhood was defined as the death of one or both parents; primary caregiver loss included parental death or the death of one or both custodial grandparents; and secondary caregiver loss included co-residing grandparents or kin. We used logistic regression and further incorporated a fixed effect for western European countries into our previous model to avoid over-predicting caregiver loss in that region. For the entire 20-month period, we grouped children by age (0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-17 years) and maternal or paternal orphanhood, using fertility contributions, and we modelled global and regional extrapolations of numbers of orphans. 95% credible intervals (CrIs) are given for all estimates. FINDINGS: The number of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death is estimated to have increased by 90·0% (95% CrI 89·7-90·4) from April 30 to Oct 31, 2021, from 2 737 300 (95% CrI 1 976 100-2 987 000) to 5 200 300 (3 619 400-5 731 400). Between March 1, 2020, and Oct 31, 2021, 491 300 (95% CrI 485 100-497 900) children aged 0-4 years, 736 800 (726 900-746 500) children aged 5-9 years, and 2 146 700 (2 120 900-2 174 200) children aged 10-17 years are estimated to have experienced COVID-19-associated orphanhood. Globally, 76·5% (95% CrI 76·3-76·7) of children were paternal orphans, whereas 23·5% (23·3-23·7) were maternal orphans. In each age group and region, the prevalence of paternal orphanhood exceeded that of maternal orphanhood. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show that numbers of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and caregiver death almost doubled in 6 months compared with the amount after the first 14 months of the pandemic. Over the entire 20-month period, 5·0 million COVID-19 deaths meant that 5·2 million children lost a parent or caregiver. Our data on children's ages and circumstances should support pandemic response planning for children globally. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation (Global Challenges Research Fund, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, and Medical Research Council), Oak Foundation, UK National Institute for Health Research, US National Institutes of Health, and Imperial College London

Employing with conviction: The experiences of employers who actively recruit criminalised people

Atherton, P., & Buck, G. Employing with conviction: The experiences of employers who actively recruit criminalised people. Probation Journal, 68(2), pp. 186-205. Copyright © [2021] (Copyright Holder). Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications.In England and Wales, criminal reoffending costs £18 billion annually. Securing employment can support desistance from crime, but only 17% of ex-prisoners are employed a year after release. Understanding the motivations of employers who do recruit criminalised people therefore represents an important area of inquiry. This article draws upon qualitative interviews with twelve business leaders in England who proactively employ criminalised people. Findings reveal that inclusive recruitment can be (indirectly) encouraged by planning policies aimed to improve social and environmental well-being and that employers often work creatively to meet employees’ additional needs, resulting in commercial benefits and (re)settlement opportunities

Talking about depression: a qualitative study of barriers to managing depression in people with long term conditions in primary care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The risk of depression is increased in people with long term conditions (LTCs) and is associated with poorer patient outcomes for both the depressive illness and the LTC, but often remains undetected and poorly managed. The aim of this study was to identify and explore barriers to detecting and managing depression in primary care in people with two exemplar LTCs: diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with 19 healthcare professionals drawn predominately from primary care, along with 7 service users and 3 carers (n = 29). One focus group was then held with a set of 6 healthcare professionals and a set of 7 service users and 1 carer (n = 14). Interviews and the focus group were digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed independently. The two data sets were then inspected for commonalities using a constant comparative method, leading to a final thematic framework used in this paper.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Barriers to detecting and managing depression in people with LTCs in primary care exist: i) when practitioners in partnership with patients conceptualise depression as a common and understandable response to the losses associated with LTCs - depression in the presence of LTCs is normalised, militating against its recognition and treatment; ii) where highly performanced managed consultations under the terms of the Quality and Outcomes Framework encourage reductionist approaches to case-finding in people with CHD and diabetes, and iii) where there is uncertainty among practitioners about how to negotiate labels for depression in people with LTCs in ways that might facilitate shared understanding and future management.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Depression was often normalised in the presence of LTCs, obviating rather than facilitating further assessment and management. Furthermore, structural constraints imposed by the QOF encouraged reductionist approaches to case-finding for depression in consultations for CHD and diabetes. Future work might focus on how interventions that draw on the principles of the chronic care model, such as collaborative care, could support primary care practitioners to better recognise and manage depression in patients with LTCs.</p

Demographic and biologic influences on survival in whites and blacks: 40 years of follow-up in the Charleston heart study

BACKGROUND: In the United States, life expectancy is significantly lower among blacks than whites. We examined whether socioeconomic status (SES) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors may help explain this disparity. METHODS: Forty years (1961 through 2000) of all-cause mortality data were obtained on a population-based cohort of 2,283 subjects in the Charleston Heart Study (CHS). We examined the influence of SES and CVD risk factors on all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Complete data were available on 98% of the original sample (647 white men, 728 white women, 423 black men, and 443 black women). After adjusting for SES and CVD risk factors, the hazard ratios (HRs) for white ethnicity were 1.14 (0.98 to 1.32) among men and 0.90 (0.75 to 1.08) among women, indicating that the mortality risk was 14% greater for white men and 10% lower for white women compared to their black counterparts. However the differences were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: While there are marked contrasts in mortality among blacks and whites in the CHS, the differences can be largely explained by SES and CVD risk factors. Continued focus on improving and controlling cardiovascular disease risk factors may reduce ethnic disparities in survival

Vigilance in a Cooperatively Breeding Primate

Collective vigilance is considered a major advantage of group living in animals. We investigated vigilance behavior in wild mustached tamarins (Saguinus mystax), small, arboreal, cooperatively breeding New World primates that form stable mixed-species groups with saddleback tamarins (Saguinus fuscicollis). We aimed 1) to investigate whether vigilance patterns change according to individual activity and 2) to examine whether there is a social component of vigilance in their cooperative and nonaggressive society. We studied 11 factors that may influence vigilance and used this data to interpret the possible functions of vigilance. We observed 44 individuals in 3 mixed-species and 2 single-species groups of 2 populations that differed in population density and home range sizes. Vigilance changed greatly when individuals were engaged in different activities and individual vigilance was affected by different sets of factors depending on the activity. As vigilance decreased in proximity of conspecifics and heterospecifics when feeding, and in larger mixed-species groups when resting, we conclude that the predominant function of vigilance in mustached tamarins is predator related. However, the absence of the group size effect in very large single-species groups suggests that it may also function to maintain group cohesion. In the population with higher density and smaller home ranges individuals also increased their vigilance in home range overlap areas. We found no evidence that mustached tamarins monitor group mates to avoid food stealing or aggression. The effect of heterospecifics on individual vigilance suggests that collective vigilance might have been an important incentive in the evolution of tamarin mixed-species groups

Assessing L2 vocabulary depth with word associates format tests: issues, findings, and suggestions

Word Associates Format (WAF) tests are often used to measure second language learners’ vocabulary depth with a focus on their network knowledge. Yet, there were often many variations in the specific forms of the tests and the ways they were used, which tended to have an impact on learners’ response behaviors and, more importantly, the psychometric properties of the tests. This paper reviews the general practices, key issues, and research findings that pertain to WAF tests in four major areas, including the design features of WAF tests, conditions for test administration, scoring methods, and test-taker characteristics. In each area, a set of variables is identified and described with relevant research findings also presented and discussed. Around eight topics, the General Discussion section provides some suggestions and directions for the development of WAF tests and the use of them as research tools in the future. This paper is hoped to help researchers become better aware that the results generated by a WAF test may vary depending on what specific design the test has, how it is administered and scored, and who the learners are, and consequently, make better decisions in their research that involves a WAF test

Caspase 8 and maspin are downregulated in breast cancer cells due to CpG site promoter methylation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epigenetic changes associated with promoter DNA methylation results in silencing of several tumor suppressor genes that lead to increased risk for tumor formation and for progression of the cancer.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Methylation specific PCR (MSP) and bisulfite sequencing were used for determination of proapoptotic gene Caspase 8 (CASP8) and the tumor suppressor gene maspin promoter methylation in four breast cancer and two non-tumorigenic breast cell lines. Involvement of histone H3 methylation in those cell lines were examined by CHIP assay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The CpG sites in the promoter region of CASP8 and maspin were methylated in all four breast cancer cell lines but not in two non-tumorigenic breast cell lines. Demethylation agent 5-aza-2'-deoxycytidine (5-aza-dc) selectively inhibits DNA methyltransferases, DNMT3a and DNMT3b, and restored CASP8 and maspin gene expression in breast cancer cells. 5-aza-dc also reduced histone H3k9me2 occupancy on CASP8 promoter in SKBR3cells, but not in MCF-7 cells. Combination of histone deacetylase inhibitor Trichostatin A (TSA) and 5-aza-dc significant decrease in nuclear expression of Di-methyl histone H3-Lys27 and slight increase in acetyl histone H3-Lys9 in MCF-7 cells. CASP8 mRNA and protein level in MCF-7 cells were increased by the 5-aza-dc in combination with TSA. Data from our study also demonstrated that treatment with 5-FU caused a significant increase in unmethylated CASP8 and in CASP8 mRNA in all 3 cancer lines.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CASP8 and maspin expression were reduced in breast cancer cells due to promoter methylation. Selective application of demethylating agents could offer novel therapeutic opportunities in breast cancer.</p

Reduced P300 amplitude during retrieval on a spatial working memory task in a community sample of adolescents who report psychotic symptoms.

BACKGROUND: Deficits in working memory are widely reported in schizophrenia and are considered a trait marker for the disorder. Event-related potentials (ERPs) and imaging data suggest that these differences in working memory performance may be due to aberrant functioning in the prefrontal and parietal cortices. Research suggests that many of the same risk factors for schizophrenia are shared with individuals from the general population who report psychotic symptoms. METHODS: Forty-two participants (age range 11--13 years) were divided into those who reported psychotic symptoms (N = 17) and those who reported no psychotic symptoms, i.e. the control group (N = 25). Behavioural differences in accuracy and reaction time were explored between the groups as well as electrophysiological correlates of working memory using a Spatial Working Memory Task, which was a variant of the Sternberg paradigm. Specifically, differences in the P300 component were explored across load level (low load and high load), location (positive probe i.e. in the same location as shown in the study stimulus and negative probe i.e. in a different location to the study stimulus) and between groups for the overall P300 timeframe. The effect of load was also explored at early and late timeframes of the P300 component (250-430 ms and 430-750 ms respectively). RESULTS: No between-group differences in the behavioural data were observed. Reduced amplitude of the P300 component was observed in the psychotic symptoms group relative to the control group at posterior electrode sites. Amplitude of the P300 component was reduced at high load for the late P300 timeframe at electrode sites Pz and POz. CONCLUSIONS: These results identify neural correlates of neurocognitive dysfunction associated with population level psychotic symptoms and provide insights into ERP abnormalities associated with the extended psychosis phenotype