Nonlinear Dirac operator and quaternionic analysis

Properties of the Cauchy-Riemann-Fueter equation for maps between quaternionic manifolds are studied. Spaces of solutions in case of maps from a K3-surface to the cotangent bundle of a complex projective space are computed. A relationship between harmonic spinors of a generalized nonlinear Dirac operator and solutions of the Cauchy-Riemann-Fueter equation are established.Comment: Cosmetic changes onl

M-theory on `toric' G_2 cones and its type II reduction

We analyze a class of conical G_2 metrics admitting two commuting isometries, together with a certain one-parameter family of G_2 deformations which preserves these symmetries. Upon using recent results of Calderbank and Pedersen, we write down the explicit G_2 metric for the most general member of this family and extract the IIA reduction of M-theory on such backgrounds, as well as its type IIB dual. By studying the asymptotics of type II fields around the relevant loci, we confirm the interpretation of such backgrounds in terms of localized IIA 6-branes and delocalized IIB 5-branes. In particular, we find explicit, general expressions for the string coupling and R-R/NS-NS forms in the vicinity of these objects. Our solutions contain and generalize the field configurations relevant for certain models considered in recent work of Acharya and Witten.Comment: 45 pages, references adde

The first Hubble diagram and cosmological constraints using superluminous supernovae

This paper has gone through internal review by the DES collaboration. It has Fermilab preprint number 19-115-AE and DES publication number 13387. We acknowledge support from EU/FP7- ERC grant 615929. RCN would like to acknowledge support from STFC grant ST/N000688/1 and the Faculty of Technology at the University of Portsmouth. LG was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme under the Marie Skłodowska- Curie grant agreement no. 839090. This work has been partially supported by the Spanish grant PGC2018-095317-B-C21 within the European Funds for Regional Development (FEDER). Funding for the DES Projects has been provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Ministry of Science and Education of Spain, the Science and Technology Facilities Council of the United Kingdom, the Higher Education Funding Council for England, the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, the Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of Chicago, the Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics at the Ohio State University, the Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy at Texas A&M University, Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos, Fundac¸ ˜ao Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo `a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient´ıfico e Tecnol´ogico and the Minist´erio da Ciˆencia, Tecnologia e Inovac¸ ˜ao, the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, and the Collaborating Institutions in the Dark Energy Survey. The Collaborating Institutions are Argonne National Laboratory, the University of California at Santa Cruz, the University of Cambridge, Centro de Investigaciones Energ´eticas, Medioambientales y Tecnol ´ogicas-Madrid, the University of Chicago, University College London, the DES-Brazil Consortium, the University of Edinburgh, the Eidgen¨ossische Technische Hochschule (ETH) Z¨urich, Fermi NationalAccelerator Laboratory, theUniversity of Illinois atUrbana- Champaign, the Institut de Ci`encies de l’Espai (IEEC/CSIC), the Institut de F´ısica d’Altes Energies, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the Ludwig-Maximilians Universit¨at M¨unchen and the associated Excellence Cluster Universe, the University of Michigan, the National Optical Astronomy Observatory, the University of Nottingham, The Ohio State University, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Portsmouth, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford University, the University of Sussex, Texas A&M University, and the OzDES Membership Consortium. Based in part on observations at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory, National Optical Astronomy Observatory, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. The DES data management system is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant numbers AST-1138766 and AST-1536171. The DES participants from Spanish institutions are partially supported by MINECO under grants AYA2015- 71825, ESP2015-66861, FPA2015-68048, SEV-2016-0588, SEV- 2016-0597, and MDM-2015-0509, some of which include ERDF funds from the European Union. IFAE is partially funded by the CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya. Research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) including ERC grant agreements 240672, 291329, and 306478.We acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for All-skyAstrophysics (CAASTRO), through project number CE110001020, and the Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Ciˆencia e Tecnologia (INCT) e-Universe (CNPq grant 465376/2014-2). This paper has been authored by Fermi Research Alliance, LLC under Contract No.DE-AC02-07CH11359 with theU.S.Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physics. The United States Government retains and the publisher, by accepting the paper for publication, acknowledges that the United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, worldwide license to publish or reproduce the published form of this paper, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.We present the first Hubble diagram of superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) out to a redshift of two, together with constraints on the matter density, M, and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w(≡p/ρ). We build a sample of 20 cosmologically useful SLSNe I based on light curve and spectroscopy quality cuts. We confirm the robustness of the peak–decline SLSN I standardization relation with a larger data set and improved fitting techniques than previous works. We then solve the SLSN model based on the above standardization via minimization of the χ2 computed from a covariance matrix that includes statistical and systematic uncertainties. For a spatially flat cold dark matter ( CDM) cosmological model, we find M = 0.38+0.24 −0.19, with an rms of 0.27 mag for the residuals of the distance moduli. For a w0waCDM cosmological model, the addition of SLSNe I to a ‘baseline’ measurement consisting of Planck temperature together with Type Ia supernovae, results in a small improvement in the constraints of w0 and wa of 4 per cent.We present simulations of future surveys with 868 and 492 SLSNe I (depending on the configuration used) and show that such a sample can deliver cosmological constraints in a flat CDM model with the same precision (considering only statistical uncertainties) as current surveys that use Type Ia supernovae, while providing a factor of 2–3 improvement in the precision of the constraints on the time variation of dark energy, w0 and wa. This paper represents the proof of concept for superluminous supernova cosmology, and demonstrates they can provide an independent test of cosmology in the high-redshift (z > 1) universe.EU/FP7-ERC grant 615929STFC grant ST/N000688/1Faculty of Technology at the University of PortsmouthEuropean Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme under the Marie Skłodowska- Curie grant agreement no. 839090Spanish grant PGC2018-095317-B-C21 within the European Funds for Regional Development (FEDER)U.S. Department of EnergyU.S. National Science FoundationMinistry of Science and Education of SpainScience and Technology Facilities Council of the United KingdomHigher Education Funding Council for EnglandNational Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,Kavli Institute of Cosmological Physics at the University of ChicagoCenter for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics at the Ohio State UniversityMitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy at Texas A&M University, Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos, Fundacão Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo `a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico and the Ministério da Ciencia, Tecnologia e InovacãoDeutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftCollaborating Institutions in the Dark Energy Survey.National Science Foundation under grant numbers AST-1138766 and AST-1536171.T MINECO under grants AYA2015- 71825, ESP2015-66861, FPA2015-68048, SEV-2016-0588, SEV- 2016-0597, and MDM-2015-0509, some of which include ERDF funds from the European Union.CERCA program of the Generalitat de Catalunya.European Research Council under the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) including ERC grant agreements 240672, 291329, and 306478.Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for All-skyAstrophysics (CAASTRO), through project number CE110001020Brazilian Instituto Nacional de Ciˆencia e Tecnologia (INCT) e-Universe (CNPq grant 465376/2014-2)Fermi Research Alliance, LLC under Contract No.DE-AC02-07CH11359 with theU.S.Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of High Energy Physic

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub

Background AU Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause :significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). Methods and findings The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000–598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. Conclusions COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections

The first Hubble diagram and cosmological constraints using superluminous supernovae

We present the first Hubble diagram of superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) out to a redshift of two, together with constraints on the matter density, ΩM, and the dark energy equation-of-state parameter, w(≡p/ρ). We build a sample of 20 cosmologically useful SLSNe I based on light curve and spectroscopy quality cuts. We confirm the robustness of the peak–decline SLSN I standardization relation with a larger data set and improved fitting techniques than previous works. We then solve the SLSN model based on the above standardization via minimization of the χ2 computed from a covariance matrix that includes statistical and systematic uncertainties. For a spatially flat Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model, we find ΩM=0.38+0.24−0.19⁠, with an rms of 0.27 mag for the residuals of the distance moduli. For a w0waCDM cosmological model, the addition of SLSNe I to a ‘baseline’ measurement consisting of Planck temperature together with Type Ia supernovae, results in a small improvement in the constraints of w0 and wa of 4 per cent. We present simulations of future surveys with 868 and 492 SLSNe I (depending on the configuration used) and show that such a sample can deliver cosmological constraints in a flat ΛCDM model with the same precision (considering only statistical uncertainties) as current surveys that use Type Ia supernovae, while providing a factor of 2–3 improvement in the precision of the constraints on the time variation of dark energy, w0 and wa. This paper represents the proof of concept for superluminous supernova cosmology, and demonstrates they can provide an independent test of cosmology in the high-redshift (z > 1) universe.</p

Sedimentary records of sewage pollution using faecal markers in contrasting peri-urban shallow lakes

Sewage contamination in shallow lake sediments is of concern because the pathogens, organic matter and nutrients contribute to the deterioration of the water-bodies' health and ecology. Sediment cores from three shallow lakes (Coneries, Church and Clifton Ponds) within Attenborough nature reserve located downstream of sewage treatment works were analysed for TOC, C/N, δ13C, δ15N, bacterial coliforms and faecal sterols. 210Pb and 137Cs activities were used to date the sediments. Elemental analysis suggests that the source of organic matter was algal and down profile changes in δ13C indicate a possible decrease in productivity with time which could be due to improvements in sewage treatment. δ15N for Coneries Pond are slightly higher than those observed in Church or Clifton and are consistent with a sewage-derived nitrate source which has been diluted by non-sewage sources of N. The similarity in δ15N values (+ 12‰ to + 10‰) indicates that the three ponds were not entirely hydrologically isolated. Analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) reveals that Coneries Pond had sterol concentrations in the range 20 to 30 μg/g (dry wt.), whereas, those from Clifton and Church Ponds were lower. The highest concentrations of the human-sourced sewage marker 5β-coprostanol were observed in the top 40 cm of Coneries Pond with values up to 2.2 μg/g. In contrast, Church and Clifton Pond sediments contain only trace amounts throughout. Down-profile comparison of 5β-coprostanol/cholesterol, 5β-coprostanol/(5β-coprostanol + 5α-cholestanol) and 5β-epicoprostanol/coprostanol as well as 5α-cholestanol/cholesterol suggests that Coneries Pond has received appreciable amounts of faecal contamination. Examination of 5β-stigmastanol (marker for herbivorous/ruminant animals) down core concentrations suggests a recent decrease in manure slurry input to Coneries Pond. The greater concentration of β-sitosterol in sediments from Church and Clifton Ponds as compared to Coneries is attributed in part to their greater diversity and extent of aquatic plants and avian faeces