Eliciting a directed acyclic graph for a multivariate time series of vehicle counts in a traffic network

The problem of modelling multivariate time series of vehicle counts in traffic networks is considered. It is proposed to use a model called the linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM). The LMDM is a multivariate Bayesian dynamic model which uses any conditional independence and causal structure across the time series to break down the complex multivariate model into simpler univariate dynamic linear models. The conditional independence and causal structure in the time series can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). The DAG not only gives a useful pictorial representation of the multivariate structure, but it is also used to build the LMDM. Therefore, eliciting a DAG which gives a realistic representation of the series is a crucial part of the modelling process. A DAG is elicited for the multivariate time series of hourly vehicle counts at the junction of three major roads in the UK. A flow diagram is introduced to give a pictorial representation of the possible vehicle routes through the network. It is shown how this flow diagram, together with a map of the network, can suggest a DAG for the time series suitable for use with an LMDM

Time-like T-duality algebra

When compactifying M- or type II string-theories on tori of indefinite space-time signature, their low energy theories involve sigma models on E_{n(n)}/H_n, where H_n is a not necessarily compact subgroup of E_{n(n)} whose complexification is identical to the complexification of the maximal compact subgroup of E_{n(n)}. We discuss how to compute the group H_n. For finite dimensional E_{n(n)}, a formula derived from the theory of real forms of E_n algebra's gives the possible groups immediately. A few groups that have not appeared in the literature are found. For n=9,10,11 we compute and describe the relevant real forms of E_n and H_n. A given H_n can correspond to multiple signatures for the compact torus. We compute the groups H_n for all compactifications of M-, M*-, and M'-theories, and type II-, II*- and II'-theories on tori of arbitrary signature, and collect them in tables that outline the dualities between them. In an appendix we list cosets G/H, with G split and H a subgroup of G, that are relevant to timelike toroidal compactifications and oxidation of theories with enhanced symmetries.Comment: LaTeX, 37 pages, 1 eps-figure, uses JHEP.cls; v2. corrected typo's in tables 16 and 17, minor changes to tex

IIA Ten-forms and the Gauge Algebras of Maximal Supergravity Theories

We show that IIA supergravity can be extended with two independent 10-form potentials. These give rise to a single BPS IIA 9-brane. We investigate the bosonic gauge algebra of both IIA and IIB supergravity in the presence of 10-form potentials and point out an intriguing relation with the symmetry algebra $E_{11}$, which has been conjectured to be the underlying symmetry of string theory/M-theory.Comment: 18 pages, section on IIA 9-branes added, references added; version to be publishe

Weak-Localization in Chaotic Versus Non-Chaotic Cavities: A Striking Difference in the Line Shape

We report experimental evidence that chaotic and non-chaotic scattering through ballistic cavities display distinct signatures in quantum transport. In the case of non-chaotic cavities, we observe a linear decrease in the average resistance with magnetic field which contrasts markedly with a Lorentzian behavior for a chaotic cavity. This difference in line-shape of the weak-localization peak is related to the differing distribution of areas enclosed by electron trajectories. In addition, periodic oscillations are observed which are probably associated with the Aharonov-Bohm effect through a periodic orbit within the cavities.Comment: 4 pages revtex + 4 figures on request; amc.hub.94.

An E9 multiplet of BPS states

We construct an infinite E9 multiplet of BPS states for 11D supergravity. For each positive real root of E9 we obtain a BPS solution of 11D supergravity, or of its exotic counterparts, depending on two non-compact transverse space variables. All these solutions are related by U-dualities realised via E9 Weyl transformations in the regular embedding of E9 in E10, E10 in E11. In this way we recover the basic BPS solutions, namely the KK-wave, the M2 brane, the M5 brane and the KK6-monopole, as well as other solutions admitting eight longitudinal space dimensions. A novel technique of combining Weyl reflexions with compensating transformations allows the construction of many new BPS solutions, each of which can be mapped to a solution of a dual effective action of gravity coupled to a certain higher rank tensor field. For real roots of E10 which are not roots of E9, we obtain additional BPS solutions transcending 11D supergravity (as exemplified by the lowest level solution corresponding to the M9 brane). The relation between the dual formulation and the one in terms of the original 11D supergravity fields has significance beyond the realm of BPS solutions. We establish the link with the Geroch group of general relativity, and explain how the E9 duality transformations generalize the standard Hodge dualities to an infinite set of `non-closing dualities'.Comment: 76 pages, 6 figure

Intersection rules, dynamics and symmetries

We consider theories containing gravity, at most one dilaton and form field strengths. We show that the existence of particular BPS solutions of intersecting extremal closed branes select the theories, which upon dimensional reduction to three dimensions possess a simple simply laced Lie group symmetry G. Furthermore these theories can be fully reconstructed from the dynamics of such branes and of their openings. Amongst such theories are the effective actions of the bosonic sector of M-theory and of the bosonic string. The BPS intersecting brane solutions form representations of a subgroup of the group of Weyl reflections and outer automorphisms of the triple Kac-Moody extension G+++ of the G algebra, which cannot be embedded in the overextended Kac-Moody subalgebra G++ characterising the cosmological Kasner solutions.Comment: Latex 30 pages, 3 figure

A note on spin-s duality

Duality is investigated for higher spin ($s \geq 2$), free, massless, bosonic gauge fields. We show how the dual formulations can be derived from a common "parent", first-order action. This goes beyond most of the previous treatments where higher-spin duality was investigated at the level of the equations of motion only. In D=4 spacetime dimensions, the dual theories turn out to be described by the same Pauli-Fierz (s=2) or Fronsdal ($s \geq 3$) action (as it is the case for spin 1). In the particular s=2 D=5 case, the Pauli-Fierz action and the Curtright action are shown to be related through duality. A crucial ingredient of the analysis is given by the first-order, gauge-like, reformulation of higher spin theories due to Vasiliev.Comment: Minor corrections, reference adde

Pure type I supergravity and DE(10)

We establish a dynamical equivalence between the bosonic part of pure type I supergravity in D=10 and a D=1 non-linear sigma-model on the Kac-Moody coset space DE(10)/K(DE(10)) if both theories are suitably truncated. To this end we make use of a decomposition of DE(10) under its regular SO(9,9) subgroup. Our analysis also deals partly with the fermionic fields of the supergravity theory and we define corresponding representations of the generalized spatial Lorentz group K(DE(10)).Comment: 28 page

A Comparison of Real Time Thermal Rating Systems in the U.S. and the UK

Real-Time Thermal Rating is a smart grid technology that allows the rating of electrical conductors to be increased based on local weather conditions. Overhead lines are conventionally given a conservative, constant seasonal rating based on seasonal and regional worst case scenarios rather than actual, say, local hourly weather predictions. This paper provides a report of two pioneering schemes—one in the United States of America and one in the United Kingdom—in which Real-Time Thermal Ratings have been applied. Thereby, we demonstrate that observing the local weather conditions in real time leads to additional capacity and safer operation. Secondly, we critically compare both approaches and discuss their limitations. In doing so, we arrive at novel insights which will inform and improve future Real-Time Thermal Rating projects

Modeling the variability of shapes of a human placenta

While it is well-understood what a normal human placenta should look like, a deviation from the norm can take many possible shapes. In this paper we propose a mechanism for this variability based on the change in the structure of the vascular tree