Marginal ice zone dynamics: future research perspectives and pathways.

Perspectives are discussed on future directions for the field of marginal ice zone (MIZ) dynamics, based on the extraordinary progress made over the past decade in its theory, modelling and observations. Research themes are proposed that would shift the field's focus towards the broader implications of MIZ dynamics in the climate system. In particular, pathways are recommended for research that highlights the impacts of trends in the MIZ on the responses of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Theory, modelling and observations of marginal ice zone dynamics: multidisciplinary perspectives and outlooks'.L. G. Bennetts, C. M. Bitz, D. L. Feltham, A. L. Kohout, and M. H. Meyla

Optimising assimilation of sea ice concentration in an Earth system model with a multicategory sea ice model

A data assimilation method capable of constraining the sea ice of an Earth system model in a dynamically consistent manner has the potential to enhance the accuracy of climate reconstructions and predictions. Finding such a method is challenging because the sea ice dynamics is highly non-linear, and sea ice variables are strongly non-Gaussian distributed and tightly coupled to the rest of the Earth system - particularly thermodynamically with the ocean. We investigate key practical implementations for assimilating sea ice concentration - the predominant source of observations in polar regions - with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model that combines the Norwegian Earth System Model with the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The performances of the different configurations are investigated by conducting 10-year reanalyses in a perfect model framework. First, we find that with a flow-dependent assimilation method, strongly coupled ocean-sea ice assimilation outperforms weakly coupled (sea ice only) assimilation. An attempt to prescribe the covariance between the ocean temperature and the sea ice concentration performed poorly. Extending the ocean updates below the mixed layer is slightly beneficial for the Arctic hydrography. Second, we find that solving the analysis for the multicategory instead of the aggregated ice state variables greatly reduces the errors in the ice state. Updating the ice volumes induces a weak drift in the bias for the thick ice category that relates to the postprocessing of unphysical thicknesses. Preserving the ice thicknesses for each category during the assimilation mitigates the drift without degrading the performance. The robustness and reliability of the optimal setting is demonstrated for a 20-year reanalysis. The error of sea ice concentration reduces by 50% (65%), sea ice thickness by 25% (35%), sea surface temperature by 33% (23%) and sea surface salinity by 11% (25%) in the Arctic (Antarctic) compared to a reference run without assimilation

A floe size dependent scattering model in two- and three-dimensions for wave attenuation by ice floes

Two- and three-dimensional models are proposed for ocean-wave attenuation due to scattering by ice floes in the marginal ice zone, in which the attenuation rate depends on the horizontal size of the individual floes. The scattering models are shown to reproduce the behaviour of wave attenuation over short wave periods. However, it is shown that scattering alone cannot explain the observed asymptotic dependence of attenuation at long wave periods. Based on these findings, it is proposed that attenuation models consist of a scattering component supplemented by an empirical damping term based on measurements, so that attenuation over all periods is correctly modelled. Computer code to calculate wave attenuation through a field of ice floes is provided in the supplementary material.Michael H.Meylan, Christopher Horvat, Cecilia M.Bitzc, Luke G.Bennett

Theory, modelling and observations of marginal ice zone dynamics: multidisciplinary perspectives and outlooks

The marginal ice zone (MIZ) is the dynamic interface between the open ocean and sea ice-covered ocean. It is characterized by interactions between surface gravity waves and granular ice covers consisting of relatively small, thin chunks of sea ice known as floes. This structure gives the MIZ markedly different properties to the thicker, quasi-continuous ice cover of the inner pack that waves do not reach, strongly influencing various atmosphere-ocean fluxes, especially the heat flux. The MIZ is a significant component of contemporary sea ice covers in both the Antarctic, where the ice cover is surrounded by the Southern Ocean and its fierce storms, and the Arctic, where the MIZ now occupies vast expanses in areas that were perennial only a decade or two ago. The trend towards the MIZ is set to accelerate, as it reinforces positive feedbacks weakening the ice cover. Therefore, understanding the complex, multiple-scale dynamics of the MIZ is essential to understanding how sea ice is evolving and to predicting its future. This article is part of the theme issue 'Theory, modelling and observations of marginal ice zone dynamics: multidisciplinary perspectives and outlooks'.Luke G. Bennetts, Cecilia M. Bitz, Daniel L. Feltham, Alison L. Kohout, and Michael H. Meyla

The storied lives of fronteriza bilingual maestras : constructing language and literacy ideologies in nepantla

This dissertation examines the language and literacy ideologies of in-service fronteriza bilingual education maestras utilizing a life story methodology. Drawing on an indigenous research paradigm and three theoretical frameworks that accentuate the lived experiences of fronteriza teachers—nepantla, border thinking, and raciolinguistic perspective—this study addresses how the life stories of fronteriza teachers illuminate their construction of language and literacy ideologies. Findings unsettle the mismatch between articulated and embodied language ideologies and demonstrate that the contradictions that manifest in home, school, and community language ideologies are an aspect of living in nepantla. The findings reveal that bilingual maestras’ language and literacy ideologies are influenced by their personal lived experiences, macro-hegemonic discourses, and the history of geopolitical spaces. As bilingual education becomes engrossed in neoliberal logics, implications for utilizing border thinking and anticolonial practices with in-service and pre-service teachers are discussed. In studying fronteriza bilingual teachers that inhabit a unique geopolitical space along the Texas-Mexico border, this dissertation contributes to the larger debate regarding the multiplicity of embodied and articulated language ideologies in bilingual settings.Curriculum and Instructio

Projected decline in spring snow depth on Arctic sea ice caused by progressively later autumn open ocean freeze-up this century

We present the first analysis of snow depth on Arctic sea ice in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) because of its importance for sea ice thermodynamics and ringed seal (Phoca hispida) habitat. Snow depths in April on Arctic sea ice decrease over the 21st century in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The chief cause is loss of sea ice area in autumn and, to a lesser extent, winter. By the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, snowfall accumulation is delayed by about three months compared to the late 20th century in the multi-model mean. Mean April snow depth north of 70°N declines from about 28 cm to 16 cm. Precipitation increases as expected in a warmer climate, but much of this increase in the Arctic occurs as rainfall. The seasonality of snowfall rate grows, with increasing rates in winter and decreasing rates in summer and autumn, but the cumulative snowfall from September to April does not change. Ringed seals depend on spring snow cover on Arctic sea ice to create subnivean birth lairs. The area with snow depths above 20 cm — a threshold needed for ringed seals to build snow caves — declines by 70%

Optimising assimilation of sea ice concentration in an Earth system model with a multicategory sea ice model

A data assimilation method capable of constraining the sea ice of an Earth system model in a dynamically consistent manner has the potential to enhance the accuracy of climate reconstructions and predictions. Finding such a method is challenging because the sea ice dynamics is highly non-linear, and sea ice variables are strongly non-Gaussian distributed and tightly coupled to the rest of the Earth system – particularly thermodynamically with the ocean. We investigate key practical implementations for assimilating sea ice concentration – the predominant source of observations in polar regions – with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model that combines the Norwegian Earth System Model with the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The performances of the different configurations are investigated by conducting 10-year reanalyses in a perfect model framework. First, we find that with a flow-dependent assimilation method, strongly coupled ocean–sea ice assimilation outperforms weakly coupled (sea ice only) assimilation. An attempt to prescribe the covariance between the ocean temperature and the sea ice concentration performed poorly. Extending the ocean updates below the mixed layer is slightly beneficial for the Arctic hydrography. Second, we find that solving the analysis for the multicategory instead of the aggregated ice state variables greatly reduces the errors in the ice state. Updating the ice volumes induces a weak drift in the bias for the thick ice category that relates to the postprocessing of unphysical thicknesses. Preserving the ice thicknesses for each category during the assimilation mitigates the drift without degrading the performance. The robustness and reliability of the optimal setting is demonstrated for a 20-year reanalysis. The error of sea ice concentration reduces by 50% (65%), sea ice thickness by 25% (35%), sea surface temperature by 33% (23%) and sea surface salinity by 11% (25%) in the Arctic (Antarctic) compared to a reference run without assimilation

Reconstruction of Snow on Arctic Sea Ice

Snow on Arctic sea ice is a poorly observed variable that plays an important role in the Arctic climate system and impacts the remote sensing systems that monitor Arctic sea ice. We present and validate a reconstruction of Arctic snow depth based on observed sea ice motion and snowfall derived from reanalysis data. Overall, the reconstruction is in good agreement with direct measurements of snow depth from Operation IceBridge, slightly underestimating mean IceBridge snow depth. At the local scale (10 km), the reconstruction is more skilled than a weighted climatology over first year ice, but underestimates deeper snow over multiyear ice. Reconstructions of single buoy snow depths are unskilled, but the reconstruction shows skill in simulating the mean snow depth across all buoys. Spring snow depths show a lowtohigh crossArctic gradient and tend to be greatest in the Atlantic sector of the eastern Arctic. The relationship between ice type (multiyear or firstyear ice) and snow depth previously documented in the western Arctic is not evident in the eastern Arctic. Using ice type to weight snow depths for satellite ice thickness retrievals may not be justifiable in the eastern Arctic. Reconstructed snow depth across the Arctic shows significant interannual variability, suggesting that use of a fixed snow depth climatology may lead to biases in retrieved ice thickness and its variability. However, interannual variability in panArctic mean snow depth is comparable or smaller than the uncertainty in both the reconstruction and IceBridge, highlighting the need for high accuracy snow depth products and reconstructions

Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice

International audienceAbstract. We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future (2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3, a large intermodel spread persists in the simulated summer sea ice losses over the 21st century for a given forcing scenario. The 1979–2010 sea ice extent, thickness distribution and volume characteristics of each CMIP5 model are discussed as potential constraints on the September sea ice extent (SSIE) projections. Our results suggest first that the future changes in SSIE with respect to the 1979–2010 model SSIE are related in a complicated manner to the initial 1979–2010 sea ice model characteristics, due to the large diversity of the CMIP5 population: at a given time, some models are in an ice-free state while others are still on the track of ice loss. However, in phase plane plots (that do not consider the time as an independent variable), we show that the transition towards ice-free conditions is actually occurring in a very similar manner for all models. We also find that the year at which SSIE drops below a certain threshold is likely to be constrained by the present-day sea ice properties. In a second step, using several adequate 1979–2010 sea ice metrics, we effectively reduce the uncertainty as to when the Arctic could become nearly ice-free in summertime, the interval [2041, 2060] being our best estimate for a high climate forcing scenario