Estimation Of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration Using Fuzzy State Models

Daily evapotranspiration (ET) rates are needed for irrigation scheduling. Owing to the difficulty of obtaining accurate field measurements, ET rates are commonly estimated from weather parameters. A few empirical or semi–empirical methods have been developed for assessing daily reference crop ET, which is converted to actual crop ET using crop coefficients. The FAO Penman–Monteith method, which is now accepted as the standard method for the computation of daily reference ET, is sophisticated. It requires several input parameters, some of which have no actual measurements but are estimated from measured weather parameters. In this study, we examined the suitability of fuzzy logic for estimating daily reference ET with simpler and fewer parameters. Two fuzzy evapotranspiration models, using two or three input parameters, were developed and applied to estimate grass ET. Independent weather parameters from sites representing arid and humid climates were used to test the models. The fuzzy estimated ET values were compared with direct ET measurements from grass–covered weighing lysimeters, and with ET estimations obtained using the FAO Penman–Monteith and the Hargreaves–Samani equations. The estimated ET values from a fuzzy model using three input parameters (Syx = 0.54 mm, r2 = 0.90) were found to be comparable to ET values estimated with the FAO Penman–Monteith equation (Syx = 0.50 mm, r2 = 0.91) and were more accurate than those obtained by the Hargreaves–Samani equation (Syx = 0.66 mm, r2 = 0.53). These results show that fuzzy evapotranspiration models with simpler and fewer input parameters can yield accurate estimation of ET

Evaluation Of Methods For Estimating Daily Reference Crop Evapotranspiration At A Site In The Humid Southeast United States

Estimated daily reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is normally used to determine the water requirement of crops using the crop factor method. Many ETo estimation methods have been developed for different types of climatic data, and the accuracy of these methods varies with climatic conditions. In this study, pair−wise comparisons were made between daily ETo estimated from eight different ETo equations and ETo measured by lysimeter to provide information helpful in selecting an appropriate ETo equation for the Cumberland Plateau located in the humid Southeast United States. Based on the standard error of the estimate (Syx), the relationship between the estimated and measured ETo was the best using the FAO−56 Penman−Monteith equation (coefficient of determination (r2) = 0.91, Syx = 0.31 mm d−1, and a coefficient of efficiency (E) = 0.87), followed by the Penman (1948) equation (r2 = 0.91, Syx = 0.34 mm d−1, and E = 0.88), and Turc’s equation (r2 = 0.90, Syx = 0.36 mm d−1, and E = 0.88). The FAO−24 Penman and Priestly−Taylor methods overestimated ETo, while the Makkink equation underestimated ETo. The results for the Hargreaves−Samani equation showed low correlation with lysimeter ETo data (r2 = 0.51, Syx = 0.68 mm d−1, and E = 0.20), while those for the Kimberly Penman were reasonable (r2 = 0.87, Syx = 0.40 mm d−1, and E = 0.87). These results support the adoption of the FAO−56 Penman−Monteith equation for the climatological conditions occurring in the humid Southeast. However, Turc’s equation may be an attractive alternative to the more complex Penman−Monteith method. The Turc method requires fewer input parameters, i.e., mean air temperature and solar irradiance data only

Optimization Of Fuzzy Evapotranspiration Model Through Neural Training With Input–Output Examples

In a previous study, we demonstrated that fuzzy evapotranspiration (ET) models can achieve accurate estimation of daily ET comparable to the FAO Penman–Monteith equation, and showed the advantages of the fuzzy approach over other methods. The estimation accuracy of the fuzzy models, however, depended on the shape of the membership functions and the control rules built by trial–and–error methods. This paper shows how the trial and error drawback is eliminated with the application of a fuzzy–neural system, which combines the advantages of fuzzy logic (FL) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The strategy consisted of fusing the FL and ANN on a conceptual and structural basis. The neural component provided supervised learning capabilities for optimizing the membership functions and extracting fuzzy rules from a set of input–output examples selected to cover the data hyperspace of the sites evaluated. The model input parameters were solar irradiance, relative humidity, wind speed, and air temperature difference. The optimized model was applied to estimate reference ET using independent climatic data from the sites, and the estimates were compared with direct ET measurements from grass–covered lysimeters and estimations with the FAO Penman–Monteith equation. The model–estimated ET vs. lysimeter–measured ET gave a coefficient of determination (r2) value of 0.88 and a standard error of the estimate (Syx) of 0.48 mm d–1. For the same set of independent data, the FAO Penman–Monteith–estimated ET vs. lysimeter–measured ET gave an r2 value of 0.85 and an Syx value of 0.56 mm d–1. These results show that the optimized fuzzy–neural–model is reasonably accurate, and is comparable to the FAO Penman–Monteith equation. This approach can provide an easy and efficient means of tuning fuzzy ET models

Sorghum Landraces Production Practices in Nyanza, Coast and Eastern Regions, Kenya

Sorghum Sorghum bicolar L. is an important cereal crop grown in the semi-arid areas. It is rank as the fifth key cereal crop worldwide. The ability of sorghum to adapt to drought, salinity, infertile soils, and high temperatures makes it a critical crop in the dry regions. However, farmers grow many landraces some of which do not perform well since the majority cannot afford nitrogenous fertilizers to boost their harvest. Therefore, a baseline survey was conducted in Eastern, Nyanza and Coastal regions to assess the production systems for sorghum. Structured questionnaires were used to gather information from a total of 76 randomly selected farmers in the study regions. Data on socio-economic characteristics, sorghum varieties, use of farm inputs, and source of seeds, farming systems, traits preference, farm sizes, yields and constraints in production of the crop was collected. Parameters studied were analyzed using Statistical Programmes for Social Sciences (SPSS) (IBM SPSS Statistics 20). Results showed that majority of respondents in Eastern (99%), 80% in Nyanza and all respondents in the coastal region cultivated landraces. Most of the respondents had farm sizes between 0.5-5acres. A larger proportion of respondents in the three regions reported low harvests from their farms, recording below 5 bags every season. Most of the farmers across the three regions intercrop sorghum with other crops with all respondents in Eastern, 80% in Coast and 68% in Nyanza. Some farmers plant sorghum without fertilizers, others used either inorganic or organic fertilizers while the rest use both organic and inorganic. The traits desired by farmers in the region included high yields, early maturity, resistance to pest and diseases, sweetness and tolerance to drought. Farmers cited pests and diseases, weeds such as striga, and drought as the key constraints to sorghum production in the regions. Key words: drought, landraces, sorghum, tolerance, traits DOI: 10.7176/JESD/10-10-16 Publication date:May 31st 201

HIV infection drives IgM and IgG3 subclass bias in Plasmodium falciparum-specific and total immunoglobulin concentration in Western Kenya

BACKGROUND: HIV infection is associated with more frequent and severe episodes of malaria and may be the result of altered malaria-specific B cell responses. However, it is poorly understood how HIV and the associated lymphopenia and immune activation affect malaria-specific antibody responses. METHODS: HIV infected and uninfected adults were recruited from Bondo subcounty hospital in Western Kenya at the time of HIV testing (antiretroviral and co-trimoxazole prophylaxis naïve). Total and Plasmodium falciparum apical membrane antigen-1 (AMA1) and glutamate rich protein-R0 (GLURP-R0) specific IgM, IgG and IgG subclass concentrations was measured in 129 and 52 of recruited HIV-infected and uninfected individuals, respectively. In addition, HIV-1 viral load (VL), CD4+ T cell count, and C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration was quantified in study participants. Antibody levels were compared based on HIV status and the associations of antibody concentration with HIV-1 VL, CD4+ count, and CRP levels was measured using Spearman correlation testing. RESULTS: Among study participants, concentrations of IgM, IgG1 and IgG3 antibodies to AMA1 and GLURP-R0 were higher in HIV infected individuals compared to uninfected individuals (all p < 0.001). The IgG3 to IgG1 ratio to both AMA1 and GLURP-R0 was also significantly higher in HIV-infected individuals (p = 0.02). In HIV-infected participants, HIV-1 VL and CRP were weakly correlated with AMA1 and GLURP-R0 specific IgM and IgG1 concentrations and total (not antigen specific) IgM, IgG, IgG1, and IgG3 concentrations (all p < 0.05), suggesting that these changes are related in part to viral load and inflammation. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, HIV infection leads to a total and malaria antigen-specific immunoglobulin production bias towards higher levels of IgM, IgG1, and IgG3, and HIV-1 viraemia and systemic inflammation are weakly correlated with these changes. Further assessments of antibody affinity and function and correlation with risk of clinical malaria, will help to better define the effects of HIV infection on clinical and biological immunity to malaria

Antileishmanial activity of Aloe Secundiflora plant extracts against Leishmania Major (2013).

Human leishmaniases are a spectrum of diseases caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leishmania. In this study antileishmanial activity of the methanolic and water leaf extracts from Aloe secundiflora plant were analysed by determining the minimum inhibition concentration (MIC), nitric oxide (NO) production stimulation, infection rates (IR) and multiplication index (MI). Cytotoxicity of these plant extracts was also assessed. The MIC levels of water and methanolic plant extracts, amphotericin B and pentostam were 2000 µg/ml, 1000 µg/ml, 125µg/ml and 250 µg/ml respectively against Leishamnia major promastigotes. This study revealed that water and methanolic plant extracts significantly inhibited the growth of Leishmania parasites (P ? 0.05) as compared to amphotericin B with respect to the parasite infection rates and MIC levels. The IC50 for the water and methanolic plant extracts was 279.488 µg/ml and 42.824 µg/ml respectively. The elevated inhibitory activity observed in this study against Leishmania major parasites provides evidence and basis for their potential use as therapeutic agents against leishmaniasis. Key words: Aloe secundiflora, Plant extracts, Leishmania major and Minimum Inhibition Concentrations (MIC

The prevalence and density of asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections among children and adults in three communities of western Kenya

Background: Further reductions in malaria incidence as more countries approach malaria elimination require the identification and treatment of asymptomatic individuals who carry mosquito-infective Plasmodium gametocytes that are responsible for furthering malaria transmission. Assessing the relationship between total parasitaemia and gametocytaemia in field surveys can provide insight as to whether detection of low-density, asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections with sensitive molecular methods can adequately detect the majority of infected individuals who are potentially capable of onward transmission. Methods: In a cross-sectional survey of 1354 healthy children and adults in three communities in western Kenya across a gradient of malaria transmission (Ajigo, Webuye, and Kapsisywa-Kipsamoite), asymptomatic P. falciparum infections were screened by rapid diagnostic tests, blood smear, and quantitative PCR of dried blood spots targeting the varATS gene in genomic DNA. A multiplex quantitative reverse-transcriptase PCR assay targeting female and male gametocyte genes (pfs25, pfs230p), a gene with a transcriptional pattern restricted to asexual blood stages (piesp2), and human GAPDH was also developed to determine total parasite and gametocyte densities among parasitaemic individuals. Results: The prevalence of varATS-detectable asymptomatic infections was greatest in Ajigo (42%), followed by Webuye (10%). Only two infections were detected in Kapsisywa. No infections were detected in Kipsamoite. Across all communities, children aged 11-15 years account for the greatest proportion total and sub-microscopic asymptomatic infections. In younger age groups, the majority of infections were detectable by microscopy, while 68% of asymptomatically infected adults (> 21 years old) had sub-microscopic parasitaemia. Piesp2-derived parasite densities correlated poorly with microscopy-determined parasite densities in patent infections relative to varATS-based detection. In general, both male and female gametocytaemia increased with increasing varATS-derived total parasitaemia. A substantial proportion (41.7%) of individuals with potential for onward transmission had qPCR-estimated parasite densities below the limit of microscopic detection, but above the detectable limit of varATS qPCR. Conclusions: This assessment of parasitaemia and gametocytaemia in three communities with different transmission intensities revealed evidence of a substantial sub-patent infectious reservoir among asymptomatic carriers of P. falciparum. Experimental studies are needed to definitively determine whether the low-density infections in communities such as Ajigo and Webuye contribute significantly to malaria transmission

The potential for quality assurance systems to save costs and lives:the case of early infant diagnosis of HIV

OBJECTIVES: Scaling up of point-of-care testing (POCT) for early infant diagnosis of HIV (EID) could reduce the large gap in infant testing. However, suboptimal POCT EID could have limited impact and potentially high avoidable costs. This study models the cost-effectiveness of a quality assurance system to address testing performance and screening interruptions, due to, for example, supply stockouts, in Kenya, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and Zimbabwe, with varying HIV epidemics and different health systems. METHODS: We modelled a quality assurance system-raised EID quality from suboptimal levels: that is, from misdiagnosis rates of 5%, 10% and 20% and EID testing interruptions in months, to uninterrupted optimal performance (98.5% sensitivity, 99.9% specificity). For each country, we estimated the 1-year impact and cost-effectiveness (US$/DALY averted) of improved scenarios in averting missed HIV infections and unneeded HIV treatment costs for false-positive diagnoses. RESULTS: The modelled 1-year costs of a national POCT quality assurance system range from US$ 69 359 in South Africa to US$334 341 in Zimbabwe. At the country level, quality assurance systems could potentially avert between 36 and 711 missed infections (i.e. false negatives) per year and unneeded treatment costs between US$ 5808 and US$ 739 030. CONCLUSIONS: The model estimates adding effective quality assurance systems are cost-saving in four of the five countries within the first year. Starting EQA requires an initial investment but will provide a positive return on investment within five years by averting the costs of misdiagnoses and would be even more efficient if implemented across multiple applications of POCT