Choosing Between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study

Good decision-making requires understanding the causal impact of our actions. Often, we only have access to correlational data that could stem from multiple causal mechanisms with divergent implications for choice. Our experiments comprehensively characterize choice when subjects face conflicting causal interpretations of such data. Behavior primarily reflects three types: following interpretations that make attractive promises, choosing cautiously, and assessing the fit of interpretations to the data. We characterize properties of interpretations that obscure bad fit to subjects. Preferences for more complex models are more common than those reflecting Occam’s razor. Implications extend to the Causal Narratives and Model Persuasion literatures

Health Outcomes and Cost of Care Among Older Adults with Schizophrenia: A 10-Year Study Using Medical Records across the Continuum of Care

Objectives The population of older patients with schizophrenia is increasing. This study describes health outcomes, utilization, and costs over 10 years in a sample of older patients with schizophrenia compared to older patients without schizophrenia. Design, Setting, Participants An observational cohort study of 31,588 older adults (mean age 70.44 years) receiving care from an urban public health system, including a community mental health center, during 1999–2008. 1635 (5.2%) were diagnosed with schizophrenia and 757 (2.4%) had this diagnosis confirmed in the community mental health center. Patients’ electronic medical records were merged with Medicare claims, Medicaid claims, the Minimum Dataset, and the Outcome and Assessment Information Set. Information on medication use was not available. Measurements Rates of comorbid conditions, health care utilization, costs, and mortality. Results Patients with schizophrenia had significantly higher rates of congestive heart failure (45.05% v. 38.84%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (52.71% v. 41.41%), and hypothyroidism (36.72% v. 26.73%) than the patients without schizophrenia (p<0.001). They had significantly lower rates of cancer (30.78% v. 43.18%) and significantly higher rates of dementia (64.46% v. 32.13%). The patients with schizophrenia had significantly higher mortality risk (HR: 1.25, CI: 1.07–1.47) than the patients without schizophrenia. They also had significantly higher rates of health care utilization. The mean costs for Medicare and Medicaid were significantly higher for the patients with schizophrenia than for the patients without schizophrenia. Conclusions The management of older adult patients with schizophrenia is creating a serious burden for our health care system, requiring the development of integrated models of health care

Antihypertensive Medication and Dementia Risk in Older Adult African Americans with Hypertension: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: African Americans are especially at risk of hypertension and dementia. Antihypertensive medications reduce the risk of cardiovascular events, but may also reduce the risk of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To assess the longitudinal effects of antihypertensive medications and blood pressure on the onset of incident dementia in a cohort of African Americans. DESIGN: Prospective cohort. PARTICIPANTS: 1236 community-dwelling patients from an inner-city public health care system, aged 65 years and older, with a history of hypertension but no history of dementia, and who had at least three primary care visits and a prescription filled for any medication. MAIN MEASURES: Blood pressure was the average of three seated measurements. Dementia was diagnosed using a two-stage design, with a screening evaluation every 2 to 3 years followed by a comprehensive in-home clinical evaluation for those with a positive screen. Laboratory, inpatient and outpatient encounter data, coded diagnoses and procedures, and medication records were derived from a health information exchange. KEY RESULTS: Of the 1236 hypertensive participants without dementia at baseline, 114 (9%) developed incident dementia during follow-up. Individuals prescribed any antihypertensive medication (n = 816) were found to have a significantly reduced risk of dementia (HR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.37-0.88, p = 0.0114) compared to untreated hypertensive participants (n = 420). When this analysis was repeated including a variable indicating suboptimally treated blood pressure (> 140 mmHg systolic or >90 mmHg diastolic), the effect of antihypertensive medication was no longer statistically significant (HR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.32-1.30, p = 0.2217). CONCLUSIONS: Control of blood pressure in older adult African American patients with hypertension is a key intervention for preventing dementia, with similar benefits from most of the commonly available antihypertensive medications

Glucose level decline precedes dementia in elderly African Americans with diabetes

INTRODUCTION: High blood glucose levels may be responsible for the increased risk for dementia in diabetic patients. METHODS: A secondary data analysis merging electronic medical records (EMRs) with data collected from the Indianapolis-Ibadan Dementia project (IIDP). Of the enrolled 4105 African Americans, 3778 were identified in the EMR. Study endpoints were dementia, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or normal cognition. Repeated serum glucose measurements were used as the outcome variables. RESULTS: Diabetic participants who developed incident dementia had a significant decrease in serum glucose levels in the years preceding the diagnosis compared to the participants with normal cognition (P = .0002). They also had significantly higher glucose levels up to 9 years before the dementia diagnosis (P = .0367). DISCUSSION: High glucose levels followed by a decline occurring years before diagnosis in African American participants with diabetes may represent a powerful presymptomatic metabolic indicator of dementia

Changes of glucose levels precede dementia in African Americans with diabetes but not in Caucasians

INTRODUCTION Changes in glucose levels may represent a powerful metabolic indicator for dementia in African Americans with diabetes. It is unclear whether these changes also occur in Caucasians. METHODS A secondary data analysis using electronic medical records from 5228 African Americans and Caucasians 65 years and older. Mixed effects models with repeated serum glucose measurements were used to compare changes in glucose levels between African Americans and Caucasian patients with and without incident dementia. RESULTS African Americans and Caucasians with diabetes had significantly different changes in glucose levels by dementia status (p<0.0001). African Americans experienced a significant decline in glucose levels before the dementia diagnosis (estimated glucose decline 1.3421 mg/dL per year, p<0.0001) than those who did not develop dementia. Caucasians with and without dementia showed stable glucose levels over time (p=0.3071). DISCUSSION Significant changes in glucose levels precede dementia in African American patients with diabetes but not in Caucasians

Safety of intravenous ferric carboxymaltose versus oral iron in patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD: an analysis of the 1-year FIND-CKD trial.

Background: The evidence base regarding the safety of intravenous (IV) iron therapy in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is incomplete and largely based on small studies of relatively short duration. Methods: FIND-CKD (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00994318) was a 1-year, open-label, multicenter, prospective study of patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD, anemia and iron deficiency randomized (1:1:2) to IV ferric carboxymaltose (FCM), targeting higher (400-600 µg/L) or lower (100-200 µg/L) ferritin, or oral iron. A post hoc analysis of adverse event rates per 100 patient-years was performed to assess the safety of FCM versus oral iron over an extended period. Results: The safety population included 616 patients. The incidence of one or more adverse events was 91.0, 100.0 and 105.0 per 100 patient-years in the high ferritin FCM, low ferritin FCM and oral iron groups, respectively. The incidence of adverse events with a suspected relation to study drug was 15.9, 17.8 and 36.7 per 100 patient-years in the three groups; for serious adverse events, the incidence was 28.2, 27.9 and 24.3 per 100 patient-years. The incidence of cardiac disorders and infections was similar between groups. At least one ferritin level ≥800 µg/L occurred in 26.6% of high ferritin FCM patients, with no associated increase in adverse events. No patient with ferritin ≥800 µg/L discontinued the study drug due to adverse events. Estimated glomerular filtration rate remained the stable in all groups. Conclusions: These results further support the conclusion that correction of iron deficiency anemia with IV FCM is safe in patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD

Recovery of dialysis patients with COVID-19 : health outcomes 3 months after diagnosis in ERACODA

Background. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related short-term mortality is high in dialysis patients, but longer-term outcomes are largely unknown. We therefore assessed patient recovery in a large cohort of dialysis patients 3 months after their COVID-19 diagnosis. Methods. We analyzed data on dialysis patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from 1 February 2020 to 31 March 2021 from the European Renal Association COVID-19 Database (ERACODA). The outcomes studied were patient survival, residence and functional and mental health status (estimated by their treating physician) 3 months after COVID-19 diagnosis. Complete follow-up data were available for 854 surviving patients. Patient characteristics associated with recovery were analyzed using logistic regression. Results. In 2449 hemodialysis patients (mean ± SD age 67.5 ± 14.4 years, 62% male), survival probabilities at 3 months after COVID-19 diagnosis were 90% for nonhospitalized patients (n = 1087), 73% for patients admitted to the hospital but not to an intensive care unit (ICU) (n = 1165) and 40% for those admitted to an ICU (n = 197). Patient survival hardly decreased between 28 days and 3 months after COVID-19 diagnosis. At 3 months, 87% functioned at their pre-existent functional and 94% at their pre-existent mental level. Only few of the surviving patients were still admitted to the hospital (0.8-6.3%) or a nursing home (∼5%). A higher age and frailty score at presentation and ICU admission were associated with worse functional outcome. Conclusions. Mortality between 28 days and 3 months after COVID-19 diagnosis was low and the majority of patients who survived COVID-19 recovered to their pre-existent functional and mental health level at 3 months after diagnosis

Choosing between Causal Interpretations: An Experimental Study

Good decision-making requires understanding the causal impact of our actions. Often, we only have access to correlational data that could stem from multiple causal mechanisms with divergent implications for choice. Our experiments comprehensively characterize choice when subjects face conflicting causal interpretations of such data. Behavior primarily reflects three types: following interpretations that make attractive promises, choosing cautiously, and assessing the fit of interpretations to the data. We characterize properties of interpretations that obscure bad fit to subjects. Preferences for more complex models are more common than those reflecting Occam's razor. Implications extend to the Causal Narratives and Model Persuasion literatures

The Range Assignment Problem in Non-Homogeneous Static Ad-Hoc Networks.

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