Estimating the functional form for the density dependence from life history data

Two contrasting approaches to the analysis of population dynamics are currently popular: demographic approaches where the associations between demographic rates and statistics summarizing the population dynamics are identified; and time series approaches where the associations between population dynamics, population density, and environmental covariates are investigated. In this paper, we develop an approach to combine these methods and apply it to detailed data from Soay sheep (Ovis aries). We examine how density dependence and climate contribute to fluctuations in population size via age- and sex-specific demographic rates, and how fluctuations in demographic structure influence population dynamics. Density dependence contributes most, followed by climatic variation, age structure fluctuations and interactions between density and climate. We then simplify the density-dependent, stochastic, age-structured demographic model and derive a new phenomenological time series which captures the dynamics better than previously selected functions. The simple method we develop has potential to provide substantial insight into the relative contributions of population and individual-level processes to the dynamics of populations in stochastic environments

How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background: Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling. Methodology/Principal Findings: By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations. Significance: There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics

A Simultaneous Test of Synchrony Causal Factors in Muskrat and Mink Fur Returns at Different Scales across Canada

Synchrony among populations has been attributed to three major hypotheses: dispersal, the Moran effect, and trophic-level interactions. Unfortunately, simultaneous testing of these hypotheses demands complete and detailed data, which are scarce for ecological systems.Hudson's Bay Company data on mink and muskrat fur returns in Canada represent an excellent opportunity to test these hypotheses because of the detailed spatial and temporal data from this predator-prey system. Using structural equation modelling, support for each hypothesis was evaluated at two spatial scales: across Canada and dividing the country into three regions longitudinally. Our results showed that at both scales mink synchrony is a major factor determining muskrat synchrony, supporting the hypothesis of trophic-level interactions, but the influence of winter precipitation synchrony is also important in eastern Canada. Moreover, mink synchrony is influenced principally by winter precipitation synchrony at the level of all Canada (Moran effect), but by distance at regional level, which might suggest some influence of dispersal at this level.Our result is one of the few reports of synchrony mediated by trophic-level interactions, highlighting the importance of evaluation of scale effects in population synchrony studies

Development and resilience in three Arctic ecosystems: Baltic, Barents and Iceland Seas

In this GreenMAR project we look into the historical development of the marine ecosystems that surround the Nordic countries in an effort to forecast their future evolution. We pay particular attention to the way their food webs responded to similar stressors (warming) and fishing regimes in the past. We have compiled historical information on environmental and biological components, from plankton to fish, over the last 25 to 45 years, depending on the system. On these four ecosystems we have: (i) carried out multivariate analyses to describe their main trends and (ii) constructed stability landscapes to quantify their resilience. We will show these results and discuss their implications

The transfer function method reveals how age‐structured populations respond to environmental fluctuations with serious implications for fisheries management

Fluctuations in wild fish populations result from interaction between population dynamics and environmental forcing. Age-structured populations can magnify or dampen particular frequencies of these fluctuations, depending on life cycle and species traits. The transfer function (TF) gives a detailed analytical description of these phenomena. In this study, we derive a generalized form of TF to investigate the fluctuations of fish populations in response to species traits and environmental noise characteristics. We found that for semelparous species, fluctuations in fish stocks log-size are directly proportional to the recruitment elasticity and inversely proportional to the age of maturity, and for iteroparous species, fluctuations in fish stocks log-size are inversely proportional to the adult lifespan. In addition to the already known effect of cohort resonance (increased sensitivity to environmental fluctuations on cohort timescales in the elastic range of recruitment elasticity), we find a stock resonance effect (increased sensitivity to environmental fluctuations on double cohort timescales in the inelastic range of recruitment elasticity). These results were then applied to fisheries management. The relationship between fishing mortality and species-specific variability of fish stocks was formalized. In accordance with this analysis, precautionary levels for different catches were estimate

Sperm DNA Hypomethylation Proximal to Reproduction Pathway Genes in Maturing Elite Norwegian Red Bulls

Genomic selection in modern farming demands sufficient semen production in young bulls. Factors affecting semen quality and production capacity in young bulls are not well understood; DNA methylation, a complicated phenomenon in sperm cells, is one such factors. In this study, fresh and frozen-thawed semen samples from the same Norwegian Red (NR) bulls at both 14 and 17 months of age were examined for sperm chromatin integrity parameters, ATP content, viability, and motility. Furthermore, reduced representation bisulfite libraries constructed according to two protocols, the Ovation R RRBS Methyl-Seq System (Ovation method) and a previously optimized gel-free method and were sequenced to study the sperm DNA methylome in frozen-thawed semen samples. Sperm quality analyses indicated that sperm concentration, total motility and progressivity in fresh semen from 17 months old NR bulls were significantly higher compared to individuals at 14 months of age. The percentage of DNA fragmented sperm cells significantly decreased in both fresh and frozen-thawed semen samples in bulls with increasing age. Libraries from the Ovation method exhibited a greater percentage of read loss and shorter read size following trimming. Downstream analyses for reads obtained from the gel-free method revealed similar global sperm DNA methylation but differentially methylated regions (DMRs) between 14- and 17 months old NR bulls. The majority of identified DMRs were hypomethylated in 14 months old bulls. Most of the identified DMRs (69%) exhibited a less than 10% methylation difference while only 1.5% of DMRs exceeded a 25% methylation difference. Pathway analysis showed that genes annotated with DMRs having low methylation differences (less than 10%) and DMRs having between 10 and 25% methylation differences, could be associated with important hormonal signaling and sperm function relevant pathways, respectively. The current research shows that RRBS in parallel with routine sperm quality analyses could be informative in reproductive capacity of young NR bulls. Although global sperm DNA methylation levels in 14 and 17 months old NR bulls were similar, regions with low and varying levels of DNA methylation differences can be identified and linked with important sperm function and hormonal pathways.publishedVersio

The shape of ecological networks

We study the statistics of ecosystems with a variable number of co-evolving species. The species interact in two ways: by prey-predator relationships and by direct competition with similar kinds. The interaction coefficients change slowly through successful adaptations and speciations. We treat them as quenched random variables. These interactions determine long-term topological features of the species network, which are found to agree with those of biological systems.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure