A Decline in New HIV Infections in South Africa: Estimating HIV Incidence from Three National HIV Surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2008

Three national HIV household surveys were conducted in South Africa, in 2002, 2005 and 2008. A novelty of the 2008 survey was the addition of serological testing to ascertain antiretroviral treatment (ART) use.We used a validated mathematical method to estimate the rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in South Africa using nationally representative HIV prevalence data collected in 2002, 2005 and 2008. The observed HIV prevalence levels in 2008 were adjusted for the effect of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The estimated "excess" HIV prevalence due to ART in 2008 was highest among women 25 years and older and among men 30 years and older. In the period 2002-2005, the HIV incidence rate among men and women aged 15-49 years was estimated to be 2.0 new infections each year per 100 susceptible individuals (/100pyar) (uncertainty range: 1.2-3.0/100pyar). The highest incidence rate was among 15-24 year-old women, at 5.5/100pyar (4.5-6.5). In the period 2005-2008, incidence among men and women aged 15-49 was estimated to be 1.3/100 (0.6-2.5/100pyar), although the change from 2002-2005 was not statistically significant. However, the incidence rate among young women aged 15-24 declined by 60% in the same period, to 2.2/100pyar, and this change was statistically significant. There is evidence from the surveys of significant increases in condom use and awareness of HIV status, especially among youth.Our analysis demonstrates how serial measures of HIV prevalence obtained in population-based surveys can be used to estimate national HIV incidence rates. We also show the need to determine the impact of ART on observed HIV prevalence levels. The estimation of HIV incidence and ART exposure is crucial to disentangle the concurrent impact of prevention and treatment programs on HIV prevalence

Assessment of epidemic projections using recent HIV survey data in South Africa: a validation analysis of ten mathematical models of HIV epidemiology in the antiretroviral therapy era

Background Mathematical models are widely used to simulate the eff ects of interventions to control HIV and to project future epidemiological trends and resource needs. We aimed to validate past model projections against data from a large household survey done in South Africa in 2012. Methods We compared ten model projections of HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for South Africa with estimates from national household survey data from 2012. Model projections for 2012 were made before the publication of the 2012 household survey. We compared adult (age 15–49 years) HIV prevalence in 2012, the change in prevalence between 2008 and 2012, and prevalence, incidence, and ART coverage by sex and by age groups between model projections and the 2012 household survey. Findings All models projected lower prevalence estimates for 2012 than the survey estimate (18·8%), with eight models’ central projections being below the survey 95% CI (17·5–20·3). Eight models projected that HIV prevalence would remain unchanged (n=5) or decline (n=3) between 2008 and 2012, whereas prevalence estimates from the household surveys increased from 16·9% in 2008 to 18·8% in 2012 (diff erence 1·9, 95% CI –0·1 to 3·9). Model projections accurately predicted the 1·6 percentage point prevalence decline (95% CI –0·3 to 3·5) in young adults aged 15–24 years, and the 2·2 percentage point (0·5 to 3·9) increase in those aged 50 years and older. Models accurately represented the number of adults on ART in 2012; six of ten models were within the survey 95% CI of 1·54–2·12 million. However, the diff erential ART coverage between women and men was not fully captured; all model projections of the sex ratio of women to men on ART were lower than the survey estimate of 2·22 (95% CI 1·73–2·71). Interpretation Projections for overall declines in HIV epidemics during the ART era might have been optimistic. Future treatment and HIV prevention needs might be greater than previously forecasted. Additional data about service provision for HIV care could help inform more accurate projections

Acceptability of Condom Promotion and Distribution Among 10-19 Year-Old Adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya Rural Districts, Tanzania.

\ud The HIV/AIDS pandemic remains a leading challenge for global health. Although condoms are acknowledged for their key role on preventing HIV transmission, low and inappropriate use of condoms persists in Tanzania and elsewhere in Africa. This study assesses factors affecting acceptability of condom promotion and distribution among adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural districts of Tanzania. Data were collected in 2011 as part of a larger cross-sectional survey on condom use among 10-19 year-olds in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural districts of Tanzania using a structured questionnaire. Associations between acceptability of condom promotion and distribution and each of the explanatory variables were tested using Chi Square. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to examine independent predictors of the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution using STATA (11) statistical software at 5% significance level. Mean age of the 1,327 adolescent participants (50.5% being males) was 13.5 years (SD = 1.4). Acceptance of condom promotion and distribution was found among 37% (35% in Mpwapwa and 39% in Mbeya rural) of the adolescents. Being sexually active and aged 15-19 was the strongest predictor of the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution (OR = 7.78, 95% CI 4.65-12.99). Others were; not agreeing that a condom is effective in preventing transmissions of STIs including HIV (OR = 0.34, 95% CI 0.20-0.56), being a resident of Mbeya rural district (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.28-2.19), feeling comfortable being seen by parents/guardians holding/buying condoms (OR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.40-3.46) and living with a guardian (OR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.08-2.04). Acceptability of condom promotion and distribution among adolescents in Mpwapwa and Mbeya rural is low. Effect of sexual activity on the acceptability of condom promotion and distribution is age-dependent and was the strongest. Feeling comfortable being seen by parents/guardians buying or holding condoms, perceived ability of condoms to offer protection against HIV/AIDS infections, district of residence and living arrangements also offered significant predictive effect. Knowledge of these factors is vital in designing successful and sustainable condom promotion and distribution programs in Tanzania.\u

HIV Risk and Associations of HIV Infection among men who have sex with men in Peri-Urban Cape Town, South Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The HIV epidemic in Sub Saharan Africa has been traditionally assumed to be driven by high risk heterosexual and vertical transmission. However, there is an increasing body of data highlighting the disproportionate burden of HIV infection among MSM in the generalized HIV epidemics across of Southern Africa. In South Africa specifically, there has been an increase in attention focused on the risk status and preventive needs of MSM both in urban centers and peri-urban townships. The study presented here represents the first evaluation of HIV prevalence and associations of HIV infection among MSM in the peri-urban townships of Cape Town.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study consisted of an anonymous probe of 200 men, reporting ever having had sex with another man, recruited through venue-base sampling from January to February, 2009.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, HIV prevalence was 25.5% (n = 51/200). Of these prevalent HIV infections, only 6% of HIV-1 infected MSM were aware of their HIV status (3/50). 0% of men reported always having safe sex as defined by always wearing condoms during sex and using water-based lubricants. Independent associations with HIV infection included inconsistent condom use with male partners (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0-5.4), having been blackmailed (aOR 4.4, 95% CI 1.6-20.2), age over 26 years (aOR 4.2, 95% CI 1.6-10.6), being unemployed (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.5-9.3), and rural origin (aOR 6.0, 95% CI 2.2-16.7). Bisexual activity was reported by 17.1% (34/199), and a total of 8% (16/200) reported having a regular female partner. Human rights violations were common with 10.5% (n = 21/200) reporting having been blackmailed and 21.0% (n = 42/200) reporting being afraid to seek health care.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The conclusions from this study include that a there is a high risk and underserved population of MSM in the townships surrounding Cape Town. The high HIV prevalence and high risk sexual practices suggest that prevalence will continue to increase among these men in the context of an otherwise slowing epidemic. These data further highlight the need to better characterize risk factors for HIV prevention and appropriate targeted combination packages of HIV interventions including biomedical, behavioural, and structural approaches to mitigate HIV risk among these men.</p

High HIV Incidence and Sexual Behavior Change among Pregnant Women in Lilongwe, Malawi: Implications for the Risk of HIV Acquisition

HIV incidence is higher among pregnant women than their non-pregnant counterparts in some sub-Saharan African settings. Our aims were (1) to estimate HIV incidence during pregnancy and (2) to compare sexual activity between pregnant, postpartum, and non-pregnant women.We examined a retrospective cohort of 1087 women to identify seroconverters using antenatal and labor ward HIV test results. We also conducted a cross-sectional survey, including a quantitative questionnaire (n = 200) and in-depth interviews (n = 20) among women in early pregnancy, late pregnancy, postpartum, and non-pregnancy. Outcomes included measures of sexual activity, reported spouse's risky behavior, and beliefs about abstinence.11 of 1087 women seroconverted during pregnancy yielding a 1% seroconversion risk and an incidence rate of 4.0/100 person years (95% CI 2.2-7.2). The reported sexual activity of the early pregnancy and non-pregnancy groups was similar, but significantly higher than the late pregnancy and postpartum groups (p<0.001). During pregnancy, sex acts decreased as gestation increased (p = 0.001). There was no reported difference in the spouse's risky behavior. Most women believed that sex should cease between the 6(th) and 8(th) month of pregnancy and should not resume until 6 months postpartum. Some talked about conflict between their cultural obligation to abstain and fear of HIV infection if their spouses find other partners.HIV incidence is high among pregnant women in Malawi, and sexual activity decreases during pregnancy and postpartum. Pregnant women need to be informed of their increased risk for HIV and the importance of using condoms throughout pregnancy and the postpartum period

Opportunities for technology-based HIV prevention programming among high school students in Cape Town, South Africa

One in three new cases of HIV in South Africa is among adolescents. Given that adolescents are particularly affected, scalable, and cost-effective prevention programs are urgently needed. This study aims to identify opportunities to integrate technology into youth HIV prevention efforts. In 2012, 1107 8th-11th graders completed a paper-and-pencil survey. Respondents were enrolled in one of three public high schools in Langa, a lower income community in Cape Town, South Africa. Eighty-nine percent of respondents have used text messaging (SMS) and 86% have gone online. If an HIV prevention program was offered online, 66% of youth would be somewhat or extremely likely to access it; slightly fewer (55%) felt the same about SMS-based programming. In comparison, 85% said they would be somewhat or extremely likely to access a school-based HIV prevention program. Interest in Internet- (60%) and SMS-based (54%) HIV prevention programming was similar for youth who had a self-appraised risk of HIV compared to youth who appraised their risk to be lower, as it was for youth who were tired of hearing messages about HIV prevention. Technology use is common - even among high school students who live in lower income communities. At the same time, these data reveal that it is not uncommon for youth to be tired of hearing messages about HIV prevention, and many of the typical topics key to HIV prevention have low interest levels among youth. HIV prevention researchers need to be mindful of the extent of existing programming that youth are exposed to. Technology-based programming may be especially amenable to meeting these requirements because of its novelty especially in developing countries, and because interactive functionality can be easily integrated into the program design. Given the preference for school and Internet-based programming, it seems that a hybrid approach is likely feasible and acceptable

Sexual practices among unmarried adolescents in Tanzania

\ud Sexual activities are increasingly changing from the cultural point of view what they used to be. Knowledge of these practices among adolescents may be a basis to create awareness among adolescents on practices that involve risks. This study aims to assess sexual practices among unmarried adolescents in Tanzania. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among in-school and out-of-school but unmarried adolescents aged 10 to 19 in five locations in Tanzania. A questionnaire was used to collect information and to characterize sexual practices among these adolescents. About 32% of adolescents reported being sexually active; a higher proportion being males than females. The only inquired and reported sexual practices include vaginal sex, masturbation, oral and anal sex. About 15% of sexually active adolescents reported having multiple sexual partners. Significantly more males reported having multiple partners than females. Nearly 42% of sexually active adolescents reported having used a condom during most recent sexual act. Females reported older partners at first sexual act. Adolescents experience several sexual practices that include penetrative and non-penetrative. More males reported being sexually active than females. Despite adolescents reporting having multiple sexual partners, reported condom use during the most recent sexual act was low. We advocate for a more enhanced approach of reproductive health education that includes safer sex to adolescents without forgetting those in-schools.\u

HIV Prevention in High-Risk Women in South Africa: Condom Use and the Need for Change

INTRODUCTION: Young women are at disproportionate risk of HIV infection in South Africa. Understanding risk behaviors and factors associated with ability to negotiate safe sex and condom use is likely to be key in curbing the spread of HIV. Traditionally prevention efforts have focused on creating behavioral changes by increasing knowledge about HIV/AIDS. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis from a prospective observational cohort study of 245 women at a high-risk of HIV infection in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. RESULTS: Participants demonstrated a high level of HIV/AIDS knowledge. Overall, 60.3% of participants reported condom use. Reported condom use at last sexual encounter varied slightly by partner type (57.0% with steady versus 64.4% with casual partners), and self-perceived ability to choose to use a condom was significantly lower with steady partners compared to casual partners (p<0.01). In multivariate analysis, women who had high school education were more likely to use condoms at their last sex encounter compared to those with only primary school education (RR of 1.36 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.06-1.75) and 1.46 (95% CI 1.13-1.88) for grades 8-10 and 11-12, respectively). Those who used condoms as a contraceptive method were twice as likely to use condoms compared to women who did not report using them as a contraceptive method. Greater perceived ability to choose to use condoms was associated with higher self-reported condom use at last encounter, irrespective of partner type (RR = 2.65 (95% CI 2.15-32.5). DISCUSSION: Self-perceived ability to use condoms, level of formal education and condom use as a contraceptive were all significantly associated with self-reported condom use at last sexual encounter. These findings suggest that that gender inequality and access to formal education, as opposed to lack of HIV/AIDS knowledge, prevent safer sexual practices in South Africa

Prevalence and risk factors for HIV-1 infection in rural Kilimanjaro region of Tanzania: Implications for prevention and treatment

BACKGROUND: Variability in stages of the HIV-1 epidemic and hence HIV-1 prevalence exists in different areas in sub-Saharan Africa. The purpose of this study was to investigate the magnitude of HIV-1 infection and identify HIV-1 risk factors that may help to develop preventive strategies in rural Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted between March and May of 2005 involving all individuals aged between 15–44 years having an address in Oria Village. All eligible individuals were registered and invited to participate. Participants were interviewed regarding their demographic characteristics, sexual behaviors, and medical history. Following a pre-test counseling, participants were offered an HIV test. RESULTS: Of the 2 093 eligible individuals, 1 528 (73.0%) participated. The overall age and sex adjusted HIV-1 prevalence was 5.6%. Women had 2.5 times higher prevalence (8.0% vs. 3.2%) as compared to men. The age group 25–44 years, marriage, separation and low education were associated with higher risk of HIV-1 infection for both sexes. HIV-1 infection was significantly associated with >2 sexual partners in the past 12 months (women: Adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.5 (95%CI: 1.3–4.7), and past 5 years, [(men: AOR, 2.2 (95%CI:1.2–5.6); women: AOR, 2.5 (95%CI: 1.4–4.0)], unprotected casual sex (men: AOR,1.8 95%CI: 1.2–5.8), bottled alcohol (Men: AOR, 5.9 (95%CI:1.7–20.1) and local brew (men: AOR, 3.7 (95%CI: 1.5–9.2). Other factors included treatment for genital ulcers and genital discharge in the past 1 month. Health-related complaints were more common among HIV-1 seropositive as compared to seronegative participants and predicted the presence of HIV-1 infection. CONCLUSION: HIV-1 infection was highly prevalent in this population. As compared to our previous findings, a shift of the epidemic from a younger to an older age group and from educated to uneducated individuals was observed. Women and married or separated individuals remained at higher risk of infection. To prevent further escalation of the HIV epidemic, efforts to scale up HIV prevention programmes addressing females, people with low education, lower age at marriage, alcohol consumption, condom use and multiple sexual partners for all age groups remains a top priority. Care and treatment are urgently needed for those infected in rural areas