Towards a pragmatic approach for dealing with uncertainties in water management practice

Management of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it is facing more and new uncertainties since pace and dimension of changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating and are likely to increase even more in the future. Hence it is crucial to find pragmatic ways to deal with these uncertainties in water management. So far, decision-making under uncertainty in water management is based on either intuition, heuristics and experience of water managers or on expert assessments all of which are only of limited use for water managers in practice. We argue for an analytical yet pragmatic approach to enable practitioners to deal with uncertainties in a more explicit and systematic way and allow for better informed decisions. Our approach is based on the concept of framing, referring to the different ways in which people make sense of the world and of the uncertainties. We applied and tested recently developed parameters that aim to shed light on the framing of uncertainty in two sub-basins of the Rhine. We present and discuss the results of a series of stakeholder interactions in the two basins aimed at developing strategies for improving dealing with uncertainties. The strategies are synthesized in a cross-checking list based on the uncertainty framing parameters as a hands-on tool for systematically identifying improvement options when dealing with uncertainty in water management practice. We conclude with suggestions for testing the developed check-list as a tool for decision aid in water management practice. Key words: water management, future uncertainties, framing of uncertainties, hands-on decision aid, tools for practice, robust strategies, social learnin

Buried solutions:How Maya urban life substantiates soil connectivity

Soils are a pivot of sustainable development. Yet, urban planning decisions persist in compromising the usability of the urban soils resource. Urban land cover expansion to accommodate an increasing population results in soil sealing. Concealment of and physical obstructions to soils prevent urban populations from engaging with their soil dependency. The concept of soil connectivity recognises that nurturing mutually beneficial soil–society relations is an essential dimension for achieving soil security. The concentrated populations of urban environments acutely require productive soil–society relations and offer the greatest potential for enhancing soil connectivity. Soil connectivity remains notably under-researched, however, resulting in deficient evidence to substantiate exactly how soil connectivity can contribute to sustaining urban life. The entanglement of soil and urban development has been critical throughout history, but seldom recognised in soil security discourse. We review the manifestation of effective soil connectivity in Precolumbian lowland Maya tropical urbanism. Archaeological evidence reveals, first, that lowland Maya urban settlement patterns largely preserved the availability, proximity, and accessibility of soils in the subdivision and configuration of urban open space. Second, Maya urban life included practices that proactively contributed to the formation of soils by adding to the stock of soils and improving beneficial soil properties of the thin and often nutrient-poor soils resulting from the regionally dominant karstic lithology. Third, a range of Maya landscape modifications and engineering practices enabled the preservation and protection of soils within urban environments. We derive evidence-based insights on an urban tradition that endured for well over two millennia by incorporating intensive soil–society relationships to substantiate the concept of soil connectivity. Inspiring urban planning to stimulate soil connectivity through enhancing the engagement with soils in urban life would promote soil security

Assessing framing of uncertainties in water management practice

The importance of problem framing in relation with environmental problems has been stated in various scientific contributions. In this paper we intend to relate it to the issue of uncertainties in water management. Dealing with uncertainties in water management is an important issue and will increase to be so in light of global changes, in particular climate change. To know how uncertainties are framed in water management practice then is important in order to evaluate strategies for dealing with these uncertainties. With the aim of identifying what are important parameters for the framing of uncertainties in water management practice, in this paper we analyze uncertainty situations described by decision-makers in water management. The analysis builds on a series of ¿Uncertainty Dialogues¿ carried out within the NeWater project with water managers in the Rhine, Elbe and Guadiana basins in 2006. During these dialogues, representatives of these river basins were asked what uncertainties they en2 N. Isendahl, A. Dewulf, M. Brugnach, G. François, S. Möllenkamp, C. Pahl-Wostl countered in their professional work life and how they confronted them. Analysing these dialogues we identified several important parameters of how uncertainties get framed. Our assumption is that making framing of uncertainty explicit will allow for better dealing with the respective uncertainty situations. In order to get a broader picture of the framing of an uncertainty we therefore suggest to add a third axis to the uncertainty matrix developed earlier by Brugnach et al. (2007) detailing on the relation of actors towards an uncertainty situation. This axis is assembled from the parameters identified in this paper

Global urbanization and food production in direct competition for land:Leverage places to mitigate impacts on SDG2 and on the Earth System

Global urbanization and food production are in direct competition for land. This paper carries out a critical review of how displacing crop production from urban and peri-urban land to other areas – because of issues related to soil quality – will demand a substantially larger proportion of the Earth’s terrestrial land surface than the surface area lost to urban encroachment. Such relationships may trigger further distancing effects and unfair social-ecological teleconnections. It risks also setting in motion amplifying effects within the Earth System. In combination, such multiple stressors set the scene for food riots in cities of the Global South. Our review identifies viable leverage points on which to act in order to navigate urban expansion away from fertile croplands. We first elaborate on the political complexities in declaring urban and peri-urban lands with fertile soils as one global commons. We find that the combination of an advisory global policy aligned with regional policies enabling robust common properties rights for bottom-up actors and movements in urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) as multi-level leverage places to intervene. To substantiate the ability of aligning global advisory policy with regional planning, we review both past and contemporary examples where empowering local social-ecological UPA practices and circular economies have had a stimulating effect on urban resilience and helped preserve, restore, and maintain urban lands with healthy soils

Assessing framing of uncertainties in water management practice

Dealing with uncertainties in water management is an important issue and is one which will only increase in light of global changes, particularly climate change. So far, uncertainties in water management have mostly been assessed from a scientific point of view, and in quantitative terms. In this paper, we focus on the perspectives from water management practice, adopting a qualitative approach. We consider it important to know how uncertainties are framed in water management practice in order to develop practice relevant strategies for dealing with uncertainties. Framing refers to how people make sense of the world. With the aim of identifying what are important parameters for the framing of uncertainties in water management practice, in this paper we analyze uncertainty situations described by decision-makers in water management. The analysis builds on a series of ¿Uncertainty Dialogues¿ carried out within the NeWater project with water managers in the Rhine, Elbe and Guadiana basins in 2006. During these dialogues, representatives of these river basins were asked what uncertainties they encountered in their professional work life and how they confronted them. Analysing these dialogues we identified several important parameters of how uncertainties get framed. Our assumption is that making framing of uncertainty explicit for water managers will allow for better dealing with the respective uncertainty situations. Keywords Framing - Uncertainty - Water management practic

Should first-line empiric treatment strategies cover coagulase-negative staphylococcal infections in severely malnourished or HIV-infected children in Kenya?

BACKGROUND: Bloodstream infection is a common cause of morbidity in children aged andlt;5 years in developing countries. In studies reporting bacteremia in Africa, coagulase-negative Staphylococci (CoNS) are commonly isolated. However, it is currently unclear whether children who are highly susceptible to infection because of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) or HIV should be treated with antimicrobials specifically to cover CoNS. We aimed to determine the clinical significance of CoNS amongst children admitted to a rural hospital in Kenya in relation to nutritional and HIV status. METHODS: Systematically collected clinical and microbiological surveillance data from children aged 6-59 months admitted to Kilifi County Hospital (2007-2013) were analysed. Multivariable regression was used to test associations between CoNS isolation from blood cultures and SAM (MUAC andlt;11.5cm or nutritional oedema (kwashiorkor)), and HIV serostatus; and among children with SAM or HIV, associations between CoNS isolation and mortality, duration of hospitalization and clinical features. RESULTS: CoNS were isolated from blood culture in 906/13,315 (6.8%) children, of whom 135/906 (14.9%) had SAM and 54/906 (6.0%) were HIV antibody positive. CoNS isolation was not associated with SAM (MUACandlt;11.5cm (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 0.88-1.40) or kwashiorkor (aOR 0.84, 95% CI 0.48-1.49)), or a positive HIV antibody test (aOR 1.25, 95% CI 0.92-1.71). Among children with SAM or a positive HIV antibody test, CoNS isolation was not associated with mortality or prolonged hospitalization. CONCLUSION: In a large, systematic study, there was no evidence that antimicrobial therapy should specifically target CoNS amongst children with SAM or HIV-infection or exposure

Short-term increase in prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of macrolide-resistant Staphylococcus aureus following mass drug administration with azithromycin for trachoma control.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin is a corner-stone of trachoma control however it may drive the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. In a cluster-randomized trial (Clinical trial gov NCT00792922), we compared the reduction in the prevalence of active trachoma in communities that received three annual rounds of MDA to that in communities that received a single treatment round. We used the framework of this trial to carry out an opportunistic study to investigate if the increased rounds of treatment resulted in increased prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of macrolide-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. Three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in two villages receiving three annual rounds of MDA (3 × treatment arm). Surveys were conducted immediately before the third round of MDA (CSS-1) and at one (CSS-2) and six (CSS-3) months after MDA. The final survey also included six villages that had received only one round of MDA 30 months previously (1 × treatment arm). RESULTS: In the 3 × treatment arm, a short-term increase in prevalence of S. aureus carriage was seen following MDA from 24.6% at CSS-1 to 38.6% at CSS-2 (p < 0.001). Prevalence fell to 8.8% at CSS-3 (p < 0.001). A transient increase was also seen in prevalence of carriage of azithromycin resistant (Azm(R)) strains from 8.9% at CSS-1 to 34.1% (p < 0.001) in CSS-2 and down to 7.3% (p = 0.417) in CSS-3. A similar trend was observed for prevalence of carriage of macrolide-inducible-clindamycin resistant (iMLSB) strains. In CSS-3, prevalence of carriage of resistant strains was higher in the 3 × treatment arm than in the 1 × treatment (Azm(R) 7.3% vs. 1.6%, p = 0.010; iMLSB 5.8% vs. 0.8%, p < 0.001). Macrolide resistance was attributed to the presence of msr and erm genes. CONCLUSIONS: Three annual rounds of MDA with azithromycin were associated with a short-term increase in both the prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of S. aureus and prevalence of carriage of Azm(R) and iMLSB S. aureus. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was ancillary to the Partnership for the Rapid Elimination of Trachoma, ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00792922 , registration date November 17, 2008

Mechanisms for inclusive governance

How mechanisms for inclusive governance are understood is built on the framing choices that are made about governance and that which is being governed. This chapter unpacks how governance can be understood and considers different historical and contemporary framings of water governance. A framing of “governance as praxis” is developed as a central element in the chapter. What makes governance inclusive is explored, drawing on theoretical, practical and institutional aspects before elucidating some of the different mechanisms currently used or proposed for creating inclusive water governance (though we argue against praxis based on simple mechanism). Finally, the factors that either constrain or enable inclusive water governance are explored with a focus on systemic concepts of learning and feedback