Logistic regression for simulating damage occurrence on a fruit grading line

Many factors influence the incidence of mechanical damage in fruit handled on a grading line. This makes it difficult to address damage estimation from an analytical point of view. During fruit transfer from one element of a grading line to another, damage occurs as a combined effect of machinery roughness and the intrinsic susceptibility of fruit. This paper describes a method to estimate bruise probability by means of logistic regression, using data yielded by specific laboratory tests. Model accuracy was measured via the statistical significance of its parameters and its classification ability. The prediction model was then linked to a simulation model through which impacts and load levels, similar to those of real grading lines, could be generated. The simulation output sample size was determined to yield reliable estimations. The process makes it possible to derive a suitable line design and the type of fruit that should be handled to maintain bruise levels within European Union (EU) Standards. A real example with peaches was carried out with the aid of the software implementation SIMLIN®, developed by the authors and registered by Madrid Technical University. This kind of tool has been demanded by inter-professional associations and grading lines designers in recent year

Purposeful selection of variables in logistic regression

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Does segmentation always improve model performance in credit scoring?

Credit scoring allows for the credit risk assessment of bank customers. A single scoring model (scorecard) can be developed for the entire customer population, e.g. using logistic regression. However, it is often expected that segmentation, i.e. dividing the population into several groups and building separate scorecards for them, will improve the model performance. The most common statistical methods for segmentation are the two-step approaches, where logistic regression follows Classification and Regression Trees (CART) or Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) trees etc. In this research, the two-step approaches are applied as well as a new, simultaneous method, in which both segmentation and scorecards are optimised at the same time: Logistic Trees with Unbiased Selection (LOTUS). For reference purposes, a single-scorecard model is used. The above-mentioned methods are applied to the data provided by two of the major UK banks and one of the European credit bureaus. The model performance measures are then compared to examine whether there is improvement due to the segmentation methods used. It is found that segmentation does not always improve model performance in credit scoring: for none of the analysed real-world datasets, the multi-scorecard models perform considerably better than the single-scorecard ones. Moreover, in this application, there is no difference in performance between the two-step and simultaneous approache

Polymorphisms in the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene, intakes of folate and related B vitamins and colorectal cancer : a case-control study in a population with relatively low folate intake

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Trust and control interrelations: New perspectives on the trust control nexus

This article is the post-print version of the published article that may be accessed at the link below. Copyright @ 2007 Sage Publications.This article introduces the special issue on New Perspectives on the Trust-Control Nexus in Organizational Relations. Trust and control are interlinked processes commonly seen as key to reach effectiveness in inter- and intraorganizational relations. The relation between trust and control is, however, a complex one, and research into this relation has given rise to various and contradictory interpretations of how trust and control relate. A well-known discussion is directed at whether trust and control are better conceived as substitutes, or as complementary mechanisms of governance. The articles in this special issue bring the discussion on the relationship between both concepts a step further by identifying common factors, distinctive mechanisms, and key implications relevant for theory building and empirical research. By studying trust and control through different perspectives and at different levels of analysis, the articles provide new theoretical insights and empirical evidence on the foundations of the trust-control interrelations

Half Life of the Doubly-magic r-Process Nucleus 78Ni

Nuclei with magic numbers serve as important benchmarks in nuclear theory. In addition, neutron-rich nuclei play an important role in the astrophysical rapid neutron-capture process (r-process). 78Ni is the only doubly-magic nucleus that is also an important waiting point in the r-process, and serves as a major bottleneck in the synthesis of heavier elements. The half-life of 78Ni has been experimentally deduced for the first time at the Coupled Cyclotron Facility of the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory at Michigan State University, and was found to be 110 (+100 -60) ms. In the same experiment, a first half-life was deduced for 77Ni of 128 (+27 -33) ms, and more precise half-lives were deduced for 75Ni and 76Ni of 344 (+20 -24) ms and 238 (+15 -18) ms respectively.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

ASCORE: an up-to-date cardiovascular risk score for hypertensive patients reflecting contemporary clinical practice developed using the (ASCOT-BPLA) trial data.

A number of risk scores already exist to predict cardiovascular (CV) events. However, scores developed with data collected some time ago might not accurately predict the CV risk of contemporary hypertensive patients that benefit from more modern treatments and management. Using data from the randomised clinical trial Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-BPLA, with 15 955 hypertensive patients without previous CV disease receiving contemporary preventive CV management, we developed a new risk score predicting the 5-year risk of a first CV event (CV death, myocardial infarction or stroke). Cox proportional hazard models were used to develop a risk equation from baseline predictors. The final risk model (ASCORE) included age, sex, smoking, diabetes, previous blood pressure (BP) treatment, systolic BP, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, fasting glucose and creatinine baseline variables. A simplified model (ASCORE-S) excluding laboratory variables was also derived. Both models showed very good internal validity. User-friendly integer score tables are reported for both models. Applying the latest Framingham risk score to our data significantly overpredicted the observed 5-year risk of the composite CV outcome. We conclude that risk scores derived using older databases (such as Framingham) may overestimate the CV risk of patients receiving current BP treatments; therefore, 'updated' risk scores are needed for current patients

Correlates of Complete Childhood Vaccination in East African Countries.

Despite the benefits of childhood vaccinations, vaccination rates in low-income countries (LICs) vary widely. Increasing coverage of vaccines to 90% in the poorest countries over the next 10 years has been estimated to prevent 426 million cases of illness and avert nearly 6.4 million childhood deaths worldwide. Consequently, we sought to provide a comprehensive examination of contemporary vaccination patterns in East Africa and to identify common and country-specific barriers to complete childhood vaccination. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, we looked at the prevalence of complete vaccination for polio, measles, Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and DTwPHibHep (DTP) as recommended by the WHO among children ages 12 to 23 months. We conducted multivariable logistic regression within each country to estimate associations between complete vaccination status and health care access and sociodemographic variables using backwards stepwise regression. Vaccination varied significantly by country. In all countries, the majority of children received at least one dose of a WHO recommended vaccine; however, in Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda less than 50% of children received a complete schedule of recommended vaccines. Being delivered in a public or private institution compared with being delivered at home was associated with increased odds of complete vaccination status. Sociodemographic covariates were not consistently associated with complete vaccination status across countries. Although no consistent set of predictors accounted for complete vaccination status, we observed differences based on region and the location of delivery. These differences point to the need to examine the historical, political, and economic context of each country in order to maximize vaccination coverage. Vaccination against these childhood diseases is a critical step towards reaching the Millennium Development Goal of reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds by 2015 and thus should be a global priority