Re-evaluating the effect of wind on recruitment in Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) using an environmentally-explicit stock recruitment model

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Fisheries Oceanography 24 (2015): 90-105, doi:10.1111/fog.12095.A previous study documented a correlation between Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment in the Gulf of Maine and an annual index of the north component of May winds. This correlation was supported by modeling studies that indicated unusually strong recruitment of Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod results from high retention of spring-spawned larvae in years when winds were predominately out of the north, which favor downwelling. We re-evaluated this relationship using updated recruitment estimates and found that the correlation decreased between recruitment and wind. The original relationship was largely driven by two recruitment estimates, one of which (2005 year class) was highly uncertain because it was near the terminal year of the assessment. With additional data, the updated assessment estimated lower recruitment for the 2005 year class, which consequently lowered the correlation between recruitment and wind. We then investigated whether an environmentally-explicit stock recruit function that incorporated an annual wind index was supported by either the original or updated assessment output. Although incorporation of the annual wind index produced a better fitting model, the uncertainty in the estimated parameters and the implied unexploited conditions were not appropriate for providing management advice. These results suggest the need for caution in the development of environmentally-explicit stock recruitment relationships, in particular when basing relationships and hypotheses on recruitment estimates from the terminal years of stock assessment models. More broadly, this study highlights a number of sources of uncertainty that should be considered when analyses are performed on the output of stock assessment models.We also thank the NMFS Fisheries and the Environment program which funded the initial work of Churchill et al. (2011) (FATE Project 08-02) and funded Hare (FATE Project 10-08) to examine environmentally-explicit stock 487 recruitment models

Bounding the graviton mass with binary pulsar observations

By comparing the observed orbital decay of the binary pulsars PSRB1913+16 and PSRB1534+12 to that predicted by general relativity due to gravitational-wave emission, we are able to bound the mass of the graviton to be less than $7.6\times10^{-20} \text{eV}/c^2$ at 90% confidence. This is the first such bound to be derived from dynamic gravitational fields. It is approximately two orders of magnitude weaker than the static-field bound from solar system observations, and will improve with further observations.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure. Presented at Fourth Edoardo Amaldi Conference on Gravitational Waves, Perth, 200

Structural, item, and test generalizability of the psychopathology checklist - revised to offenders with intellectual disabilities

The Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R) is the most widely used measure of psychopathy in forensic clinical practice, but the generalizability of the measure to offenders with intellectual disabilities (ID) has not been clearly established. This study examined the structural equivalence and scalar equivalence of the PCL-R in a sample of 185 male offenders with ID in forensic mental health settings, as compared with a sample of 1,212 male prisoners without ID. Three models of the PCL-R’s factor structure were evaluated with confirmatory factor analysis. The 3-factor hierarchical model of psychopathy was found to be a good fit to the ID PCL-R data, whereas neither the 4-factor model nor the traditional 2-factor model fitted. There were no cross-group differences in the factor structure, providing evidence of structural equivalence. However, item response theory analyses indicated metric differences in the ratings of psychopathy symptoms between the ID group and the comparison prisoner group. This finding has potential implications for the interpretation of PCL-R scores obtained with people with ID in forensic psychiatric settings

Bounding the mass of the graviton using gravitional-wave observations of inspiralling compact binaries

If gravitation is propagated by a massive field, then the velocity of gravitational waves (gravitons) will depend upon their frequency and the effective Newtonian potential will have a Yukawa form. In the case of inspiralling compact binaries, gravitational waves emitted at low frequency early in the inspiral will travel slightly slower than those emitted at high frequency later, modifying the phase evolution of the observed inspiral gravitational waveform, similar to that caused by post-Newtonian corrections to quadrupole phasing. Matched filtering of the waveforms can bound such frequency-dependent variations in propagation speed, and thereby bound the graviton mass. The bound depends on the mass of the source and on noise characteristics of the detector, but is independent of the distance to the source, except for weak cosmological redshift effects. For observations of stellar-mass compact inspiral using ground-based interferometers of the LIGO/VIRGO type, the bound on the graviton Compton wavelength is of the order of $6 \times 10^{12}$ km, about double that from solar-system tests of Yukawa modifications of Newtonian gravity. For observations of super-massive black hole binary inspiral at cosmological distances using the proposed laser interferometer space antenna (LISA), the bound can be as large as $6 \times 10^{16}$ km. This is three orders of magnitude weaker than model-dependent bounds from galactic cluster dynamics.Comment: 8 pages, RevTeX, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Optical Fiber Distributed Sensing Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) Strain Measurements Taken During Cryotank Y-Joint Test Article Load Cycling at Liquid Helium Temperatures

This paper outlines cryogenic Y-joint testing at Langley Research Center (LaRC) to validate the performance of optical fiber Bragg grating strain sensors for measuring strain at liquid helium temperature (-240 C). This testing also verified survivability of fiber sensors after experiencing 10 thermal cool-down, warm-up cycles and 400 limit load cycles. Graphite composite skins bonded to a honeycomb substrate in a sandwich configuration comprised the Y-joint specimens. To enable SHM of composite cryotanks for consideration to future spacecraft, a light-weight, durable monitoring technology is needed. The fiber optic distributed Bragg grating strain sensing system developed at LaRC is a viable substitute for conventional strain gauges which are not practical for SHM. This distributed sensing technology uses an Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometer (OFDR). This measurement approach has the advantage that it can measure hundreds of Bragg grating sensors per fiber and the sensors are all written at one frequency, greatly simplifying fiber manufacturing. Fiber optic strain measurements compared well to conventional strain gauge measurements obtained during these tests. These results demonstrated a high potential for a successful implementation of a SHM system incorporating LaRC's fiber optic sensing system on the composite cryotank and other future cryogenic applications

Small-Scale Discharges Observed Near the Top of a Thunderstorm

We have used the LOw-Frequency ARray (LOFAR) to image a few lightning flashes during a particularly severe thunderstorm. The images show an exceptional amount of VHF activity at altitudes above 10 km. Much of this is in the form of small-scale discharges, not exceeding a few hundred meter, occurring seemingly randomly around the centers of active storm cells. To emphasize the incidental nature of these small-scale discharges or sparks we refer to them as “sparkles.” A detailed investigation shows evidence that these sparkles are indicative of positive leader channels and that they are equivalent to the needle activity seen around positive leader tracks at lower altitudes.</p

Interacting mindreaders

Could interacting mindreaders be in a position to know things which they would be unable to know if they were manifestly passive observers? This paper argues that they could. Mindreading is sometimes reciprocal: the mindreader's target reciprocates by taking the mindreader as a target for mindreading. The paper explains how such reciprocity can significantly narrow the range of possible interpretations of behaviour where mindreaders are, or appear to be, in a position to interact. A consequence is that revisions and extensions are needed to standard theories of the evidential basis of mindreading. The view also has consequences for understanding how abilities to interact combined with comparatively simple forms of mindreading may explain the emergence, in evolution or development, of sophisticated forms of social cognition

The plastic number and its generalized polynomial

The polynomial $X^{3}-X-1$ has a unique positive root known as plastic number, which is denoted by $\rho$ and is approximately equal to $1.32471795$. In this note we study the zeroes of the generalized polynomial $X^{k}-\sum_{j=0}^{k-2}X^{j}$ for $k\geq 3$ and prove that its unique positive root $\lambda_{k}$ tends to the golden ratio $\phi=\frac{1+\sqrt{5}}{2}$ as $k \to \infty$. We also derive bounds on $\lambda_{k}$ in terms of Fibonacci numbers.Comment: Publisher's pdf versio

Interpersonal and affective dimensions of psychopathic traits in adolescents : development and validation of a self-report instrument

We report the development and psychometric evaluations of a self-report instrument designed to screen for psychopathic traits among mainstream community adolescents. Tests of item functioning were initially conducted with 26 adolescents. In a second study the new instrument was administered to 150 high school adolescents, 73 of who had school records of suspension for antisocial behavior. Exploratory factor analysis yielded a 4-factor structure (Impulsivity α = .73, Self-Centredness α = .70, Callous-Unemotional α = .69, and Manipulativeness α = .83). In a third study involving 328 high school adolescents, 130 with records of suspension for antisocial behaviour, competing measurement models were evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis. The superiority of a first-order model represented by four correlated factors that was invariant across gender and age was confirmed. The findings provide researchers and clinicians with a psychometrically strong, self-report instrument and a greater understanding of psychopathic traits in mainstream adolescents

Why do dogs (Canis familiaris) select the empty container in an observational learning task?

Many argue that dogs show unique susceptibility to human communicative signals that make them suitable for being engaged in complex co-operation with humans. It has also been revealed that socially provided information is particularly effective in influencing the behaviour of dogs even when the human’s action demonstration conveys inefficient or mistaken solution of task. It is unclear, however, how the communicative nature of the demonstration context and the presence of the human demonstrator affect the dogs’ object-choice behaviour in observational learning situations. In order to unfold the effects of these factors, 76 adult pet dogs could observe a communicative or a non-communicative demonstration in which the human retrieved a tennis ball from under an opaque container while manipulating another distant and obviously empty (transparent) one. Subjects were then allowed to choose either in the presence of the demonstrator or after she left the room. Results showed a significant main effect of the demonstration context (presence or absence of the human’s communicative signals), and we also found some evidence for the response-modifying effect of the presence of the human demonstrator during the dogs’ choice. That is, dogs predominantly chose the baited container, but if the demonstration context was communicative and the human was present during the dogs’ choice, subjects’ tendency to select the baited container has been reduced. In agreement with the studies showing sensitivity to human’s communicative signals in dogs, these findings point to a special form of social influence in observational learning situations when it comes to learning about causally opaque and less efficient (compared to what comes natural to the dog) action demonstrations