Verification of heat stress thresholds for a health-based heatwave definition

Heatwaves represent a threat to human health and excess mortality is one of the associated negative effects. A health-based definition for heatwaves is therefore relevant, especially for early warning purposes, and it is here investigated via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The UTCI is a bioclimate index elaborated via an advanced model of human thermo-regulation that estimates the thermal stress induced by air temperature, wind speed, moisture and radiation on the human physiology. Using France as a testbed, the UTCI was computed from meteorological reanalysis data to assess the thermal stress conditions associated to heat-attributable excess mortality in five cities. UTCI values at different climatological percentiles were defined and evaluated in their ability to identify periods of excess mortality (PEMs) over 24 years. Using verification metrics such as the probability of detection (POD), the false alarm ratio (FAR) and the frequency bias (FB), daily minimum and maximum heat stress levels equal or above corresponding UTCI 95th percentiles (15±2°C and 34.5±1.5°C, respectively) for 3 consecutive days are demonstrated to correlate to PEMs with the highest sensitivity and specificity (0.69 ≤ POD ≤ 1, 0.19 ≤ FAR ≤ 0.46, 1 ≤ FB ≤ 1.48) than minimum, maximum and mean heat stress level singularly and other bioclimatological percentiles. This finding confirms the detrimental effect of prolonged, unusually high heat stress at day and night time and suggests the UTCI 95th percentile as a health meaningful threshold for a potential heat health watch warning system

Daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecasts from the operational Global Flood Awareness System

Operational global-scale hydrological forecasting systems are used to help manage hydrological extremes such as floods and droughts. The vast amounts of raw data that underpin forecast systems and the ability to generate information on forecast skill have, until now, not been publicly available. As part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; https://www.globalfloods.eu/, last access: 3 December 2022) service evolution, in this paper daily ensemble river discharge reforecasts and real-time forecast datasets are made free and openly available through the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). They include real-time forecast data starting on 1 January 2020 updated operationally every day and a 20-year set of reforecasts and associated metadata. This paper describes the model components and configuration used to generate the real-time river discharge forecasts and the reforecasts. An evaluation of ensemble forecast skill using the continuous ranked probability skill score (CRPSS) was also undertaken for river points around the globe. Results show that GloFAS is skilful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1 to 3 d) and medium range (5 to 15 d) against a persistence benchmark forecast and skilful in over 80 % of catchments out to the extended range (16 to 30 d) against a climatological benchmark forecast. However, the strength of skill varies considerably by location with GloFAS found to have no or negative skill at longer lead times in broad hydroclimatic regions in tropical Africa, western coast of South America, and catchments dominated by snow and ice in high northern latitudes. Forecast skill is summarised as a new headline skill score available as a new layer on the GloFAS forecast Web Map Viewer to aid user interpretation and understanding of forecast quality.</p

Bis(pentalene)dititanium chemistry: C–H, C–X and H–H bond activation

The reaction of the bis(pentalene)dititanium complex Ti2(μ:η5,η5-Pn†)2 (Pn† = C8H4(1,4-SiiPr3)2) (1) with the N-heterocyclic carbene 1,3,4,5-tetramethylimidazol-2-ylidene results in intramolecular C–H acti- vation of an isopropyl substituent to form a tucked-in hydride (3). Whilst pyridine will also effect this cyclometallation reaction to form (5), the pyridine analogue of (3), the bases 1,2,4,5-tetramethyl-imid- azole, 2,6-lutidine, DABCO or trimethylphosphine are ineffective. The reaction of (1) with 2,6-dichloro- pyridine affords crystallographically characterised (6) which is the product of oxidative addition of one of the C–Cl bonds in 2,6-dichloro-pyridine across the Ti–Ti double bond in (1). The tucked-in hydride (3) reacts with hydrogen to afford a dihydride complex (4) in which the tuck-in process has been reversed; detailed experimental and computational studies on this reaction using D2, HD or H2/D2 support a mechanism for the formation of (4) which does not involve σ-bond metathesis of H2 with the tucked-in C–H bond in (3). The reaction of (3) with tBuCCH yields the corresponding acetylide hydrido complex (7), where deuteration studies show that again the reaction does not proceed via σ-bond metathesis. Finally, treatment of (3) with HCl affords the chloro-derivative (9) [(NHC)Ti(μ-H)Ti{(μ,η5:η5)Pn†}2Cl], whereas pro- tonation with [NEt3H]BPh4 yielded a cationic hydride (10) featuring an agostic interaction between a Ti centre and an iPr Me group

C-H and H-H activation at a Di-titanium centre

The reaction of the bis(pentalene)dititanium complex Ti2(μ:η5,η5-Pn†)2 (Pn† = C8H4(1,4-SiiPr3)2) with the N-heterocyclic carbene 1,3,4,5 tetramethylimidazol 2 ylidene results in intramolecular C-H activation of one of the iPr methyl groups of a Pn† ligand and formation of a "tucked-in" bridging hydride complex. The "tuck-in" process is reversed by the addition of hydrogen, which yields a dihydride featuring terminal and bridging hydrides

Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index

Atmospherically generated coastal waves labelled as meteotsunami are known to cause destruction, injury, and fatality due to their rapid onset and unexpected nature. Unlike other coastal hazards such as tsunami, there exist no standardised means of quantifying this phenomenon, which is crucial to understand shoreline impacts and to enable researchers to establish a shared language and framework for meteotsunami analysis and comparison. In this study, we present a new five-level Lewis Meteotsunami Intensity Index (LMTI) trialled in the United Kingdom (UK) but designed for global applicability. A comprehensive dataset of meteotsunami events recorded in the UK was utilised, and the index's effectiveness was evaluated, with intensity level and spatial distribution of meteotsunami occurrence derived. Results revealed a predominant occurrence of Level 2 moderate intensity meteotsunami (69 %) in the UK, with distinct hotspots identified in south-western England and Scotland. Further trial implementation of the LMTI in a global capacity revealed its potential adaptability to other meteotsunami-prone regions, facilitating the comparison of events and promoting standardisation of assessment methodologies.</p

Robust algorithm for detecting floodwater in urban areas using Synthetic Aperture Radar images

Flooding is a major hazard in both rural and urban areas worldwide, but it is in urban areas that the impacts are most severe. High resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors are able to detect flood extents in urban areas during both day- and night-time. If obtained in near real-time, these flood extents can be used for emergency flood relief management or as observations for assimilation into flood forecasting models. In this paper a method for detecting flooding in urban areas using near real-time SAR data is developed and extensively tested under a variety of scenarios involving different flood events and different images. The method uses a SAR simulator in conjunction with LiDAR data of the urban area to predict areas of radar shadow and layover in the image caused by buildings and taller vegetation. Of the urban water pixels visible to the SAR, the flood detection accuracy averaged over the test examples was 83%, with a false alarm rate of 9%. The results indicate that flooding can be detected in the urban area to reasonable accuracy, but that this accuracy is limited partly by the SAR’s poor visibility of the urban ground surface due to shadow and layover

Evidence of a topographic signal in surface soil moisture derived from ENVISAT ASAR wide swath data

The susceptibility of a catchment to flooding is affected by its soil moisture prior to an extreme rainfall event. While soil moisture is routinely observed by satellite instruments, results from previous work on the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture into hydrologic models have been mixed. This may have been due in part to the low spatial resolution of the observations used. In this study, the remote sensing aspects of a project attempting to improve flow predictions from a distributed hydrologic model by assimilating soil moisture measurements are described. Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) Wide Swath data were used to measure soil moisture as, unlike low resolution microwave data, they have sufficient resolution to allow soil moisture variations due to local topography to be detected, which may help to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of hydrological processes. Surface soil moisture content (SSMC) was measured over the catchments of the Severn and Avon rivers in the South West UK. To reduce the influence of vegetation, measurements were made only over homogeneous pixels of improved grassland determined from a land cover map. Radar backscatter was corrected for terrain variations and normalized to a common incidence angle. SSMC was calculated using change detection. To search for evidence of a topographic signal, the mean SSMC from improved grassland pixels on low slopes near rivers was compared to that on higher slopes. When the mean SSMC on low slopes was 30–90%, the higher slopes were slightly drier than the low slopes. The effect was reversed for lower SSMC values. It was also more pronounced during a drying event. These findings contribute to the scant information in the literature on the use of high resolution SAR soil moisture measurement to improve hydrologic models

Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard

This paper examines the occurrence and seasonality of meteotsunami in the United Kingdom (UK) to present a revised and updated catalogue of events that have occurred since 1750. Previous case studies have alluded to a summer prevalence and rarity of this hazard in the UK. We have verified and classified 98 events using a developed set of identification criteria. The results have revealed a prominent seasonal pattern of winter events which are related to mid-latitude depressions with precipitating convective weather systems. A geographical pattern has also emerged, highlighting three “hotspot” areas at the highest risk from meteotsunami. The evidence reviewed and new data presented here show that the hazard posed by meteotsunami has been underestimated in the UK.</p

Mapping combined wildfire and heat stress hazards to improve evidence-based decision making

Heat stress and forest fires are often considered highly correlated hazards as extreme temperatures play a key role in both occurrences. This commonality can influence how civil protection and local responders deploy resources on the ground and could lead to an underestimation of potential impacts, as people could be less resilient when exposed to multiple hazards. In this work, we provide a simple methodology to identify areas prone to concurrent hazards, exemplified with, but not limited to, heat stress and fire danger. We use the combined heat and forest fire event that affected Europe in June 2017 to demonstrate that the methodology can be used for analysing past events as well as making predictions, by using reanalysis and medium-range weather forecasts, respectively. We present new spatial layers that map the combined danger and make suggestions on how these could be used in the context of a Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. These products could be particularly valuable in disaster risk reduction and emergency response management, particularly for civil protection, humanitarian agencies and other first responders whose role is to identify priorities during pre-interventions and emergencies