Impacts des changements climatiques sur la gestion des barrages-réservoirs du bassin de la Seine - Premiers résultats du projet Climaware

International audienceLes projections climatiques établies par le GIECC indiquent que des changements significatifs dans les précipitations et les températures sont à attendre en Europe dans les prochaines décennies, ce qui devrait impacter la disponibilité en eau. Le projet européen Climaware (2010-2013, financé par IWRM-Net) a été monté pour développer des mesures d'adaptation telles que des instruments de gestion intégrée pour une gestion durable des ressources en eau tenant compte des changements climatiques. Au sein du projet, le cas d'étude sur la rivière Seine se concentre sur l'adaptation de la gestion de barrages (et éventuellement de la capacité de stockage) pour deux objectifs principaux : le soutien d'étiage et l'écrêtement de crues, avec des enjeux socio-économiques importants, en particulier dans la région parisienne. Les quatre grands barrages gérés par l'EPTB Seine Grands Lacs sont situés sur la partie amont du bassin sur quatre sous-bassins différents. Un modèle hydrologique semi-distribué a été développé pour simuler la transformation pluie-débit sur le bassin. Le modèle a été calé en utilisant les données de débits naturalisés sur 25 stations hydrométriques sur le bassin. Le modèle a ensuite été alimenté par des projections climatiques désagrégées issues de sept modèles climatiques différents. Les résultats indiquent que les débits d'étiage pourraient être significativement diminués sur le bassin d'ici à 2050. Ceci appelle à définir des stratégies de gestion adaptées. Plusieurs options seront testées pour tenir compte de ces modifications sur le bassin. / Climate projections established by the IPCC indicate that significant changes in precipitation and temperature are to be expected in Europe in the next decades, which should impact regional water availability. The Climaware European project (2010-2013, funded by IMWR-Net) was set up to develop adaptation measures such as integrated planning instruments for sustainable water resources management accounting for the impacts of climate change. Within the project, the Seine River case study focuses on the adaptation of dam management (and possibly dam storage capacity) for two main objectives: low-flow augmentation and flood alleviation, with important socio-economic stakes especially in the great Paris area. The four large reservoirs managed by the Seine Grands Lacs public basin authority, are situated on the upstream part of the basin on four different sub-basins. A semi-distributed hydrological model was developed to simulate the rainfall-runoff transformation on the basin. The model was calibrated using the naturalized flow data available on 25 gauging station across the basin. Then it was fed with climate projections downscaled from seven different climate models. Results indicate that low flows may be significantly reduced on the basin by 2050. This calls for defining adapted management strategies. Various options will be tested to account for these modifications on the basin

What impacts of climate change on surface water in France by 2070? Results of the Explore2070 project in metropolitan France and overseas departments

International audienceLes questions relatives à la disponibilité et à la gestion de l'eau concentreront l'essentiel des mesures d'adaptation qui seront prises dans les décennies à venir pour faire face aux conséquences des changements climatiques. Ces mesures devront également prendre en compte les évolutions socio-économiques, en termes de démographie, d'aménagement du territoire et de politiques publiques (agriculture, énergie, transports, etc.). Il est dès lors primordial pour les décideurs et gestionnaires de quantifier les évolutions socio-économiques possibles, ainsi que le devenir de la ressource en eau et de sa variabilité temporelle et spatiale. C'est dans ce contexte que le projet Explore2070 avait pour objectif d'évaluer les impacts possibles des changements climatiques et socio-économiques futurs sur les grandes masses d'eau (surface, souterrain, littoral) et la biodiversité, en France métropolitaine et sur les départements d'Outre-mer (Guadeloupe, Guyane, Martinique et Réunion). Piloté par le Ministère de l'Ecologie (MEDDTL), ce projet a rassemblé de nombreux bureaux d'études et instituts de recherche pour dresser un panorama général des évolutions à attendre à l'horizon 2070. Par son ampleur et la variété de ses objectifs, ce projet doit permettre de répondre à de nombreuses questions des gestionnaires et de mieux apprécier les enjeux de ces évolutions. Dans la suite, nous présentons les travaux réalisés spécifiquement sur la quantification des évolutions des eaux de surface. Nous détaillerons dans ce qui suit la démarche générale de modélisation proposée, la nature des résultats obtenus, ainsi que la façon dont les incertitudes ont été quantifiées. Ce dernier point est indispensable pour aider à la prise de décision dans un avenir incertain. / Water availability and water management will be the focus of most of the adaptation measures that will be taken in the next decades to face the consequences of climate change. These measures will have to account for the socio-economic evolutions, in terms of population size, town and country planning, as well as public policies (agriculture, energy, transports, etc.). It is therefore essential for decision makers and managers to be able to quantify the possible socio-economic evolutions together with the evolution of water resources and their temporal and spatial variability. In this context, the Explore2070 project aimed at evaluating the possible impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes on water bodies (surface water, groundwater and coastal water) and biodiversity, in metropolitan France and overseas departments (Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guyana, and Réunion Island). The project was managed by the French Ministry of Ecology (MEDDTL) and gathered several consultancies and research institutes to establish a general overview of the expected evolutions by 2070. Through both the extent and the variety of the project’s objectives, Explore2070 will provide answers to many questions raised by managers and better evaluate the stakes related to these evolutions. In the following, we present the work done specifically to quantify the evolution of surface water. The general modelling approach, the type of results and the way uncertainties were quantified are detailed. Uncertainty quantification is essential to help decision making in an uncertain future

Fusion Hindrance and Quadrupole Collectivity in Collisions of A≃50 Nuclei: The Case of 48Ti + 58Fe

International audience; The fusion excitation function of Ti-48 + Fe-58 has been measured in a wide energy range around the Coulomb barrier, covering 6 orders of magnitude of the cross sections. We present here the preliminary results of this experiment, and a full comparison with the near-by system Ni-58 + Fe-54 where evidence of fusion hindrance shows up at relatively high cross sections. The sub-barrier cross sections of Ti-48 + Fe-58 are much larger than those of Ni-58 + Fe-54. Significant differences are also observed in the logarithmic derivatives, astrophysical S-factors and fusion barrier distributions. The influence of low-energy nuclear structure on all these trends is pointed out and commented. Coupled-channels calculations using a Woods-Saxon potential are able to reproduce the experimental results for Ti-48 + Fe-58. The logarithmic derivative of the excitation function is very nicely fit, and no evidence of hindrance is observed down to around 1 mu b. The fusion barrier distribution is rather wide, flat and structureless. It is only in qualitative agreement with the calculated distribution

Experimental investigations of the sub-Coulomb 12C+12C and 12C+16O reactions

Cluster resonances in light heavy-ion systems like 12C+12C and 12C+16O may have a major impact on astrophysics stellar scenarios. Resonant radiative capture reactions have been studied for these systems at energies at and slightly below their Coulomb barriers to investigate the possible 12C-12C and 12C-16O molecular origin of the resonances. Spins have been attributed to the resonances and specificities of their γ-decay have been identified. At deep sub-barrier energies, a fusion cross section measurement using the particle-γ coincidence technique is discussed for the 12C+12C system. A new project is presented to possibly extend the 12C+12C S low-energy S factor study

Isotopic effects in sub-barrier fusion of Si + Si systems

Background: Recent measurements of fusion cross sections for the 28Si+28Si system revealed a rather unsystematic behavior ; i.e., they drop faster near the barrier than at lower energies. This was tentatively attributed to the large oblate deformation of 28Si because coupled-channels (CC) calculations largely underestimate the 28Si+28Si cross sections at low energies, unless a weak imaginary potential is applied, probably simulating the deformation. 30Si has no permanent deformation and its low-energy excitations are of a vibrational nature. Previous measurements of this system reached only 4 mb, which is not sufficient to obtain information on effects that should show up at lower energies. Purpose: The aim of the present experiment was twofold: (i) to clarify the underlying fusion dynamics by measuring the symmetric case 30Si+30Si in an energy range from around the Coulomb barrier to deep sub-barrier energies, and (ii) to compare the results with the behavior of 28Si+28Si involving two deformed nuclei. Methods: 30Si beams from the XTU tandem accelerator of the Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro of the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare were used, bombarding thin metallic 30Si targets (50 μg/cm2) enriched to 99.64% in mass 30. An electrostatic beam deflector allowed the detection of fusion evaporation residues (ERs) at very forward angles, and angular distributions of ERs were measured. Results: The excitation function of 30Si+30Si was measured down to the level of a few microbarns. It has a regular shape, at variance with the unusual trend of 28Si+28Si. The extracted logarithmic derivative does not reach the LCS limit at low energies, so that no maximum of the S factor shows up. CC calculations were performed including the low-lying 2+ and 3− excitations. Conclusions: Using a Woods-Saxon potential the experimental cross sections at low energies are overpredicted, and this is a clear sign of hindrance, while the calculations performed with a M3Y + repulsion potential nicely fit the data at low energies, without the need of an imaginary potential. The comparison with the results for 28Si+28Si strengthens the explanation of the oblate shape of 28Si being the reason for the irregular behavior of that system

International Expert Opinions and Recommendations on the Use of Melatonin in the Treatment of Insomnia and Circadian Sleep Disturbances in Adult Neuropsychiatric Disorders

Introduction: Insomnia and circadian rhythm disorders, such as the delayed sleep phase syndrome, are frequent in psychiatric disorders and their evaluation and management in early stages should be a priority. The aim of this paper was to express recommendations on the use of exogenous melatonin, which exhibits both chronobiotic and sleep-promoting actions, for the treatment of these sleep disturbances in psychiatric disorders. Methods: To this aim, we conducted a systematic review according to PRISMA on the use of melatonin for the treatment of insomnia and circadian sleep disorders in neuropsychiatry. We expressed recommendations for the use of melatonin in psychiatric clinical practice for each disorder using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method. Results: We selected 41 studies, which included mood disorders, schizophrenia, substance use disorders, attention deficit hyperactivity disorders, autism spectrum disorders, neurocognitive disorders, and delirium; no studies were found for both anxiety and eating disorders. Conclusion: The administration of prolonged release melatonin at 2–10 mg, 1–2 h before bedtime, might be used in the treatment of insomnia symptoms or comorbid insomnia in mood disorders, schizophrenia, in adults with autism spectrum disorders, neurocognitive disorders and during sedative-hypnotics discontinuation. Immediate release melatonin at <1 mg might be useful in the treatment of circadian sleep disturbances of neuropsychiatric disorders

Recent experimental results in sub- and near-barrier heavy ion fusion reactions

Recent advances obtained in the field of near and sub-barrier heavy-ion fusion reactions are reviewed. Emphasis is given to the results obtained in the last decade, and focus will be mainly on the experimental work performed concerning the influence of transfer channels on fusion cross sections and the hindrance phenomenon far below the barrier. Indeed, early data of sub-barrier fusion taught us that cross sections may strongly depend on the low-energy collective modes of the colliding nuclei, and, possibly, on couplings to transfer channels. The coupled-channels (CC) model has been quite successful in the interpretation of the experimental evidences. Fusion barrier distributions often yield the fingerprint of the relevant coupled channels. Recent results obtained by using radioactive beams are reported. At deep sub-barrier energies, the slope of the excitation function in a semi-logarithmic plot keeps increasing in many cases and standard CC calculations over-predict the cross sections. This was named a hindrance phenomenon, and its physical origin is still a matter of debate. Recent theoretical developments suggest that this effect, at least partially, may be a consequence of the Pauli exclusion principle. The hindrance may have far-reaching consequences in astrophysics where fusion of light systems determines stellar evolution during the carbon and oxygen burning stages, and yields important information for exotic reactions that take place in the inner crust of accreting neutron stars.Comment: 40 pages, 63 figures, review paper accepted for EPJ