Los acuerdos de libre comercio en América Latina desde 1990: una evaluación de la diversificación de exportaciones

Incluye BibliografíaSe revisa la afirmación, hasta ahora no sometida a verificación, de que los acuerdos de libre comercio (ALC) firmados por los países latinoamericanos —fundamento de sus estrategias de integración económica internacional desde 1990— han permitido diversificar sus exportaciones y aumentar el número de socios comerciales. La evidencia obtenida de la Base de datos estadísticos sobre el comercio de mercaderías (COMTRADE), sugiere que gran parte del crecimiento exportador en la región ha ocurrido en el margen intensivo, no en el extensivo. La expansión hacia nuevos productos y socios comerciales ha sido limitada, según los índices de concentración. La apuesta de América Latina de diversificar exportaciones a partir de ALC sin estrategias más integrales —debido a un concepto estático de ventajas comparativas— generó resultados exiguos. Por consiguiente, los gobiernos debieran adoptar un enfoque más dinámico respecto de las ventajas comparativas e implementar políticas más activas. Finalmente, se plantean algunas preguntas para futuras investigaciones

Res non verba: Economic Reform’s Evaluation in Authoritarian Regimes in South Korea and Chile, 1961-1989

En las últimas décadas, los modelos económicos neoliberales de Corea del Sur y Chile han sido celebrados como casos de éxito. Sin embargo, a ambos países se les critica la existencia de gobiernos militares previos al crecimiento antes aludido. Proponemos como hipótesis de trabajo que los procesos de reforma y diseño de las nuevas reglas del juego en ambos regímenes es la explicación del éxito económico observado. En concreto, las reformas se orientan a seguir las sendas de dependencia de cada país: mientras que con Park se implementa una Industrialización Orientada a las Exportaciones (IOE) tomando como base la planificación quinquenal, Pinochet retorna al modelo primario exportador combinando un monetarismo de economía cerrada (1973-1981) para luego dar paso a una desindustrialización de economía abierta (1982-1989). Al ser ambas estrategias y sendas de dependencia diferentes, los resultados difieren respecto a cuándo ocurre y a la estabilidad del crecimiento económico: en el caso de Park fue durante su gobierno; en el caso de Pinochet, luego a su salida del poder.In last decades, neoliberal models of South Korea and Chile have been celebrated as exemplifier models of economic success. Nonetheless, both countries were criticized due the existence of military governments before their economic growth. We argue as hypothesis the reforms and design of new economic benchmarking process in both regimes explains the observed economic success. Concretely, both reforms follow their respectively Path Dependence: meanwhile Park implements an Export Oriented Industrialization (EOI) using Five Years Plans as a base, Pinochet returns to a Primary Exports Model (PEM) combining a closed economy monetarism (1973-1981) to pass just after to an open economy deindustrialization (1982-1989). Due both strategies and path dependencies are different, results will differ concerning WHEN economic growth occurs: with Park, will occur during his government; in the case of Pinochet, after his scavenging

Leopoldo Montesino Jerez, Transporte y calidad de Vida: origen y destino del Transantiago, Impresión y distribución LOM, Santiago de Chile, 2007, 364 p.

Quién podría afirmar hoy que el transporte no es parte sustantiva de la calidad de vida de la mayor parte de la población del país?, ¿quién podría dudar que la pregunta por la calidad de vida, es relevante para el mundo académico, político, económico y social? El profesor Leopoldo Montesino se ha planteado este tipo de preocupación desde hace ya mucho tiempo, y por largo tiempo su interés no ha sido suficientemente comprendido. En efecto, en un contexto teórico donde se considera que el desar..

A 50 años del golpe de Estado en Chile. Memoria y olvido

Revisar y revisitar este pasado es un ejercicio muy duro para quienes vivimos el golpe y la Dictadura, implica un ejercicio de desprendimiento y de abstracción, cuyos alcances son relativamente limitados. Nos impone pensar en ese pasado y reflexionar acerca de cómo lo pensamo

América Latina: de potencias conceptuales a enanos políticos

Latin America seems to travel incessantly along a historical trajectory that puts it on the edge of development, which seems to elude us again and again. In the last 60 years, while this was happening, other regions of the world, such as Northern Europe and East Asia, seem to have found formulas to reach that desired and elusive development. The paradox seems to reside in our dependence pattern, a trajectory that resists disappearing, despite the changes in economic policies, the different models and styles of development, and the ideological emphases that have dominated them. This work asks about the keys to this phenomenon, in an interpretation essay format, where speculation and questions are more central than data and answers. This analysis seeks to create slightly more heterodox perspectives to return to these old, but current challenges.América Latina parece transitar incesantemente por una trayectoria histórica que la pone al borde del desarrollo, el que parece eludirnos una y otra vez. En los últimos 60 años, mientras esto ocurría, otras regiones del mundo como Europa del Norte y el este de Asia, parecen haber encontrado fórmulas para alcanzar ese anhelado y esquivo desarrollo. La paradoja parece residir en nuestro patrón de dependencia, una trayectoria que se resiste a desaparecer, pese a los cambios de políticas económicas, a los distintos modelos y estilos de desarrollo, y a los énfasis ideológicos que les han dominado. Este trabajo se pregunta por las claves de este fenómeno, en un formato de ensayo de interpretación, donde la especulación y las preguntan tienen más centralidad que los datos y las respuestas. Este análisis busca crear perspectivas un poco más heterodoxas para volver a estos viejos, pero vigentes desafíos

A Minimal Inflation Scenario

We elaborate on a minimal inflation scenario based entirely on the general properties of supersymmetry breaking in supergravity models. We identify the inflaton as the scalar component of the Goldstino superfield. We write plausible candidates for the effective action describing this chiral superfield. In particular the theory depends (apart from parameters of O(1)) on a single free parameter: the scale of supersymmetry breaking. This can be fixed using the amplitude of CMB cosmological perturbations and we therefore obtain the scale of supersymmetry breaking to be 10^{12-14} GeV. The model also incorporates explicit R-symmetry breaking in order to satisfy the slow roll conditions. In our model the eta-problem is solved without extra fine-tuning. We try to obtain as much information as possible in a model independent way using general symmetry properties of the theory's effective action, this leads to a new proposal on how to exit the inflationary phase and reheat the Universe.Comment: matches published version (typo corrected

Minimal Inflation

Using the universal X superfield that measures in the UV the violation of conformal invariance we build up a model of multifield inflation. The underlying dynamics is the one controlling the natural flow of this field in the IR to the Goldstino superfield once SUSY is broken. We show that flat directions satisfying the slow roll conditions exist only if R-symmetry is broken. Naturalness of our model leads to scales of SUSY breaking of the order of 10^{11-13} Gev, a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of the initial perturbations and negligible gravitational waves. We obtain that the inflaton field is lighter than the gravitino by an amount determined by the slow roll parameter eta. The existence of slow-roll conditions is directly linked to the values of supersymmetry and R-symmetry breaking scales. We make cosmological predictions of our model and compare them to current data

Global economic costs of herpetofauna invasions

Biological invasions by amphibian and reptile species (i.e. herpetofauna) are numerous and widespread, having caused severe impacts on ecosystems, the economy and human health. However, there remains no synthesised assessment of the economic costs of these invasions. Therefore, using the most comprehensive database on the economic costs of invasive alien species worldwide (InvaCost), we analyse the costs caused by invasive alien herpetofauna according to taxonomic, geographic, sectoral and temporal dimensions, as well as the types of these costs. The cost of invasive herpetofauna totaled at 17.0 billion US$between 1986 and 2020, divided split into 6.3 billion US$ for amphibians, 10.4 billion US$for reptiles and 334 million US$ for mixed classes. However, these costs were associated predominantly with only two species (brown tree snake Boiga irregularis and American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus), with 10.3 and 6.0 billion US$ in costs, respectively. Costs for the remaining 19 reported species were relatively minor ( 99%), while for reptiles, impacts were reported mostly through damages to mixed sectors (65%). Geographically, Oceania and Pacific Islands recorded 63% of total costs, followed by Europe (35%) and North America (2%). Cost reports have generally increased over time but peaked between 2011 and 2015 for amphibians and 2006 to 2010 for reptiles. A greater effort in studying the costs of invasive herpetofauna is necessary for a more complete understanding of invasion impacts of these species. We emphasise the need for greater control and prevention policies concerning the spread of current and future invasive herpetofauna.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Thin and Deep Gaussian Processes

Gaussian processes (GPs) can provide a principled approach to uncertainty quantification with easy-to-interpret kernel hyperparameters, such as the lengthscale, which controls the correlation distance of function values. However, selecting an appropriate kernel can be challenging. Deep GPs avoid manual kernel engineering by successively parameterizing kernels with GP layers, allowing them to learn low-dimensional embeddings of the inputs that explain the output data. Following the architecture of deep neural networks, the most common deep GPs warp the input space layer-by-layer but lose all the interpretability of shallow GPs. An alternative construction is to successively parameterize the lengthscale of a kernel, improving the interpretability but ultimately giving away the notion of learning lower-dimensional embeddings. Unfortunately, both methods are susceptible to particular pathologies which may hinder fitting and limit their interpretability. This work proposes a novel synthesis of both previous approaches: Thin and Deep GP (TDGP). Each TDGP layer defines locally linear transformations of the original input data maintaining the concept of latent embeddings while also retaining the interpretation of lengthscales of a kernel. Moreover, unlike the prior solutions, TDGP induces non-pathological manifolds that admit learning lower-dimensional representations. We show with theoretical and experimental results that i) TDGP is, unlike previous models, tailored to specifically discover lower-dimensional manifolds in the input data, ii) TDGP behaves well when increasing the number of layers, and iii) TDGP performs well in standard benchmark datasets.Comment: Accepted at the Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 202