Diagnosis of flood events in Brisbane (Australia) using a flood index based on daily effective precipitation

Like drought, flood events are extremely detrimental to the community [1, 2]. In the State of Queensland (Australia) the 2010–2011 Summer period saw a very significant flooding that appeared to be exacerbated by La Nina, with damages of magnitudes similar to previous flood in 1974 and mid-1950s [3]. Therefore, a plethora of flood events in this region raises serious questions about how best to address the vulnerability and costs [4]. Several studies documented particularly vulnerable geographic setting of the capital city, Brisbane. To name a few, the worst event was in January 1974 and next in 2010, which flooded most dwellings around Brisbane River catchment, severely in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Creek catchment (where 23 people had drowned). Insurers received some 56,200 claims with payouts totaling $2.55 billion, due to estimated inundations of 18,000 properties. Crucial to any flood mitigation and adaptation is the prediction of events with a good real-time monitoring system. The system should detect precisely the onset dates and corresponding water-intensive properties. A flood event is dependent on how abundant the water resources due to heavy rain are and how the water is dissipated over time. Hence a scientific method for detecting floods should be based on remaining effective precipitation on daily basis, due to heavy rain over a period of time. In this paper we applied an obje400+-ctive flood diagnostic method following an earlier pioneer study [6]. The Flood Index (FI) used in this research was initially developed by [6] based on the concept of daily Effective Precipitation (EP) proposed by [7] using the Available Water Resources Index (AWRI), and later used by [8] for analysis of water abundant seasons. The daily FI was applied to the flood region of Brisbane, the state capital of Queensland, Australia (27°30' S, 153°1' E). In order to compute the FI, the pre-processed daily rainfall data was acquired from Australian Bureau of Meteorology (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/data-services/). Data for the period 1915–2012 were analysed. Since the FI was a standardized value comparing daily water resources for any Julian date to the yearly maximum values over climatological period, it detected flood starting date (for FI > 0) and represented adequately anomalously high precipitation that potentially triggered flood situation. The severity, intensity and durations were analysed by running sum approach of [9] over identified flood periods between onset and termination dates. Our results demonstrated good skill of the daily Flood Index for objective diagnosis and monitoring of flood events based on water intensive properties. The method allowed for the detection of the event, and quantified its properties for comparison of various events. The method was novel for quantifying floods and appears quite promising for forecasting flood events using time-series approaches

Testing for heteroskedasticity of the residuals in fuzzy rule-based models

International audienceIn this paper, we propose a new diagnostic checking tool for fuzzy rule-based modelling of time series. Through the study of the residuals in the Lagrange Multiplier testing framework we devise a hypothesis test which allows us to determine if the residual time series is homoscedastic or not, that is, if it has the same variance throughout time. This is another important step towards a statistically sound modelling strategy for fuzzy rule-based models

On the L_p-solvability of higher order parabolic and elliptic systems with BMO coefficients

We prove the solvability in Sobolev spaces for both divergence and non-divergence form higher order parabolic and elliptic systems in the whole space, on a half space, and on a bounded domain. The leading coefficients are assumed to be merely measurable in the time variable and have small mean oscillations with respect to the spatial variables in small balls or cylinders. For the proof, we develop a set of new techniques to produce mean oscillation estimates for systems on a half space.Comment: 44 pages, introduction revised, references expanded. To appear in Arch. Rational Mech. Ana

On the new concept of the available water climatology and its application

We propose a new concept of climatology called the Available Water Climate (AWC). Available water is 'the remained water usable in every moment' that is calculated regardless of any time intervals or the amounts of precipitation. With this concept, the Available Water Resources Index (AWRI) has been digitized following the earlier work of Byun and Lee (2002). The applicability of AWRI not only to the assessment and prediction of water related disasters but also to the academic researches has been tested. Resulted merits are as follows. Firstly, the threshold value of AWRI for the occurrence of all water related disasters like flood, drought, inundation landslide, and drought each region became clear, therefore the assessment and the prediction of them became much more precise than before. It became clear that the more extreme the AWRI value is, the severer the related disasters become. As example, all disasters caused by heavy rains, even though a small inundation, became predictable at the time step of heavy rain warning with the help of the Long-term remained water index(LWI). As another example, the drought intensity and its dates on start and end are defined with more reasonably and precisely than any other drought indexes with help of the Effective drought index (EDI) using sliding time scale. Secondly, the spatiotemporal distribution of water environment were digitized clearly and objectively using AWRI and new concepts of the Water Abundant Season (WAS) and the Little Water Season (LIWAS), their dates on start and end, and their strength were defined, which is very beneficial for agriculture, forestry, and all other water controls. Also, the differences of water environments among regions were clearly digitized and the improvement of the climate classification by Köppen etc. became possible. Thirdly, other merits will be found continuously afterwards

Soft X-Ray Sources at the Centers of the Elliptical Galaxies NGC 4472 and NGC 4649

Analysis of recent Chandra observations of the elliptical galaxies NGC 4472 and NGC 4649 has revealed faint soft X-ray sources at their centers. The sources are located to within 1'' of the optical centers of the galaxies. They are most likely associated with the central supermassive black holes. Interest in these and several other similar objects stems from the unusually low luminosity of the supermassive black holes embedded in dense interstellar medium. Our Chandra sources have very soft spectra. They are detectable only below ~0.6 keV and have luminosities in the 0.2-2.5 keV energy band of ~ 6 * 10^{37} erg/s and ~1.7 * 10^{38} erg/s in NGC 4649 and NGC 4472, respectively.Comment: Shortened version of the paper published in Astronomy Letter

The Taiwanese-American Occultation Survey: The Multi-Telescope Robotic Observatory

The Taiwanese-American Occultation Survey (TAOS) operates four fully automatic telescopes to search for occultations of stars by Kuiper Belt Objects. It is a versatile facility that is also useful for the study of initial optical GRB afterglows. This paper provides a detailed description of the TAOS multi-telescope system, control software, and high-speed imaging.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figure

The TAOS Project Stellar Variability I. Detection of Low-Amplitude delta Scuti Stars

We analyzed data accumulated during 2005 and 2006 by the Taiwan-American Occultation Survey (TAOS) in order to detect short-period variable stars (periods of <~ 1 hour) such as delta Scuti. TAOS is designed for the detection of stellar occultation by small-size Kuiper Belt Objects (KBOs) and is operating four 50cm telescopes at an effective cadence of 5Hz. The four telescopes simultaneously monitor the same patch of the sky in order to reduce false positives. To detect short-period variables, we used the Fast Fourier Transform algorithm (FFT) inasmuch as the data points in TAOS light-curves are evenly spaced. Using FFT, we found 41 short-period variables with amplitudes smaller than a few hundredths of a magnitude and periods of about an hour, which suggest that they are low-amplitude delta Scuti stars (LADS). The light-curves of TAOS delta Scuti stars are accessible online at the Time Series Center website (http://timemachine.iic.harvard.edu)Comment: Accepted for publication in A

The Mechanical Behavior of a 25Cr Super Duplex Stainless Steel at Elevated Temperature

Peer reviewedPostprin

The Taiwanese-American Occultation Survey Project Stellar Variability. II. Detection of 15 Variable Stars

The Taiwanese-American Occultation Survey (TAOS) project has collected more than a billion photometric measurements since 2005 January. These sky survey data—covering timescales from a fraction of a second to a few hundred days—are a useful source to study stellar variability. A total of 167 star fields, mostly along the ecliptic plane, have been selected for photometric monitoring with the TAOS telescopes. This paper presents our initial analysis of a search for periodic variable stars from the time-series TAOS data on one particular TAOS field, No. 151 (R.A. = 17^(h)30^(m)6^(s).7, decl. = 27°17'30", J2000), which had been observed over 47 epochs in 2005. A total of 81 candidate variables are identified in the 3 deg^2 field, with magnitudes in the range 8 < R < 16. On the basis of the periodicity and shape of the light curves, 29 variables, 15 of which were previously unknown, are classified as RR Lyrae, Cepheid, δ Scuti, SX Phonencis, semi-regular, and eclipsing binaries

Lifting the Veil of Dust from NGC 0959: The Importance of a Pixel-Based 2D Extinction Correction

We present the results of a study of the late-type spiral galaxy NGC 0959, before and after application of the pixel-based dust extinction correction described in Tamura et al. 2009 (Paper I). Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) far-UV (FUV) and near-UV (NUV), ground-based Vatican Advanced Technology Telescope (VATT) UBVR, and Spitzer/Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 micron images are studied through pixel Color-Magnitude Diagrams (pCMDs) and pixel Color-Color Diagrams (pCCDs). We define groups of pixels based on their distribution in a pCCD of (B - 3.6 micron) versus (FUV - U) colors after extinction correction. In the same pCCD, we trace their locations before the extinction correction was applied. This shows that selecting pixel groups is not meaningful when using colors uncorrected for dust. We also trace the distribution of the pixel groups on a pixel coordinate map of the galaxy. We find that the pixel-based (two-dimensional) extinction correction is crucial to reveal the spatial variations in the dominant stellar population, averaged over each resolution element. Different types and mixtures of stellar populations, and galaxy structures such as a previously unrecognized bar, become readily discernible in the extinction-corrected pCCD and as coherent spatial structures in the pixel coordinate map.Comment: 10 pages, LaTeX2e requires 'emulateapj.cls', 'graphicx.sty', and 'natbib.sty' (included), 9 postscript figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in AJ