Diversity and Security in UK Electricity Generation: The Influence of Low Carbon Objectives

We explore the relationship between low carbon objectives and the strategic security of electricity in the context of the UK Electricity System. We consider diversity of fuel source mix to represent one dimension of security - robustness against interruptions of any one source - and apply two different diversity indices to the range of electricity system scenarios produced by the UK government and independent researchers. Using data on wind generation we also consider whether a second dimension of security - the reliability of generation availability - is compromised by intermittency of renewable generation. Our results show that low carbon objectives are uniformly associated with greater long-term diversity in UK electricity. We discuss reasons for this result, explore sensitivities, and briefly discuss possible policy instruments associated with diversity and their limitations.Diversity, Security, Low Carbon, Wind Generation, Electricity

Particle-size characteristics of the vertical dust profiles of two contrasting dust events in the Channel Country of western Queensland, Australia

Spatial and temporal variations in vegetation and soil surface conditions of rangelands add a level of complexity to wind erosion processes which is often difficult to model or measure. Butler and colleagues have developed a methodology which combines computer simulation and experimental measurement to analyse how spatial and temporal changes in dust source area emission rates and atmospheric conditions affect vertical dust concentration profiles during wind erosion events in the Queensland Channel Country. This methodology has not, however, taken into account how variations in dust source area particle-size can affect vertical dust concentration profiles. The present paper examines how the particle-size characteristics of dust source soils affect both vertical dust concentration profiles and the vertical distribution of particle-sizes in two contrasting wind erosion events in the Queensland Channel Country. Comparisons are made between computer simulations of these events and the results of field measurements (of vertical dust concentration profiles) and laboratory measurements (of dust particle-size). Computer simulations of the particle-size emissions from the different dust source areas during the two events produce vertical distributions of dust particle-sizes which are similar to the measured dust particle-sizes for these events. These results indicate that erodibility-induced spatial and temporal variations in particle-size emissions of dust source areas have important influences upon: dust fluxes, vertical dust concentration profiles and the vertical distribution of dust particle-sizes within these profile

A knowledge-based flight status monitor for real-time application in digital avionics systems

The Dryden Flight Research Facility of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) is the principal NASA facility for the flight testing and evaluation of new and complex avionics systems. To aid in the interpretation of system health and status data, a knowledge-based flight status monitor was designed. The monitor was designed to use fault indicators from the onboard system which are telemetered to the ground and processed by a rule-based model of the aircraft failure management system to give timely advice and recommendations in the mission control room. One of the important constraints on the flight status monitor is the need to operate in real time, and to pursue this aspect, a joint research activity between NASA Ames-Dryden and the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE) on real-time knowledge-based systems was established. Under this agreement, the original LISP knowledge base for the flight status monitor was reimplemented using the intelligent knowledge-based system toolkit, MUSE, which was developed under RAE sponsorship. Details of the flight status monitor and the MUSE implementation are presented

Effects of organic and ‘low input’ production methods on food quality and safety

The intensification of agricultural production in the last century has resulted in a significant loss of biodiversity, environmental problems and associated societal costs. The use of shorter rotations or monocropping and high levels of mineral fertilisers, pesticides and crop growth regulators may also have had negative impacts on food quality and safety. To reverse the negative environmental and biodiversity impacts of agricultural intensification, a range of different ‘low input’ farming systems have been developed and are now supported by EU and government support schemes. A range of recent reviews concluded that switching to low input, integrated or organic farming practices results in significant environmental benefits and increased biodiversity in agro-ecosystems. Some recent studies also reported higher levels of nutritionally desirable compounds (e.g. vitamins, antioxidants, mineral nutrients) in foods from organic and ‘low input’ production systems compared to food from conventional systems. The increasing demand and current price premiums achieved by foods from low input and especially organic production systems were shown to be closely linked to consumer perceptions about nutritional and health benefits of such foods. However, there are other studies reporting no significant differences in composition between low input and conventional foods, or inconsistent results. There is currently a lack of (a) factorial studies, which allow the effect of individual production system components (e.g. rotation design, fertility management, crop health management, variety choice) on food composition to be assessed and (b) dietary intervention or cohort studies which compare the effect of consuming foods from different production systems on animal and/or human health. It is therefore currently not possible to draw overall conclusions about the effect of low input production on food quality and safety. This paper will (a) describe the range of organic and other ‘low input’ standards, certification and support systems currently used, (b) summarise the currently available information on effects of organic and other low input crop production systems on the environment, biodiversity and food quality, and (c) describe the methodologies and results from subproject 2 of the EU-funded Integrated project QualityLowInputFood. This project focused on improving our knowledge about the effect of organic and low input crop and livestock production systems on food quality and safety parameters

SOFIP: A Short Orbital Flux Integration Program

A computer code was developed to evaluate the space radiation environment encountered by geocentric satellites. The Short Orbital Flux Integration Program (SOFIP) is a compact routine of modular compositions, designed mostly with structured programming techniques in order to provide core and time economy and ease of use. The program in its simplest form produces for a given input trajectory a composite integral orbital spectrum of either protons or electrons. Additional features are available separately or in combination with the inclusion of the corresponding (optional) modules. The code is described in detail, and the function and usage of the various modules are explained. A program listing and sample outputs are attached

Unsung heroes: Constituency election agents in British general elections

Despite their central role in the electoral process, constituency agents have been largely overlooked by political scientists and this article seeks to rectify the omission. It sketches the origins and development of the role of agent from the late 19th century and suggests that a serious rethink of the role took place in the 1990s. Survey-based evidence about the social characteristics of agents is presented confirming that they are largely middle-aged, middle-class, well-educated men. They are also becoming more experienced, offer realistic assessments of the impact of constituency campaigning and, arguably, many take a long-term view of how their party's support can be maximised

Statistical correlation analysis for comparing vibration data from test and analysis

A theory was developed to compare vibration modes obtained by NASTRAN analysis with those obtained experimentally. Because many more analytical modes can be obtained than experimental modes, the analytical set was treated as expansion functions for putting both sources in comparative form. The dimensional symmetry was developed for three general cases: nonsymmetric whole model compared with a nonsymmetric whole structural test, symmetric analytical portion compared with a symmetric experimental portion, and analytical symmetric portion with a whole experimental test. The theory was coded and a statistical correlation program was installed as a utility. The theory is established with small classical structures

Robust ecological pattern formation induced by demographic noise

We demonstrate that demographic noise can induce persistent spatial pattern formation and temporal oscillations in the Levin-Segel predator-prey model for plankton-herbivore population dynamics. Although the model exhibits a Turing instability in mean field theory, demographic noise greatly enlarges the region of parameter space where pattern formation occurs. To distinguish between patterns generated by fluctuations and those present at the mean field level in real ecosystems, we calculate the power spectrum in the noise-driven case and predict the presence of fat tails not present in the mean field case. These results may account for the prevalence of large-scale ecological patterns, beyond that expected from traditional non-stochastic approaches.Comment: Revised version. Supporting simulation at: http://guava.physics.uiuc.edu/~tom/Netlogo

Airborne laser topographic mapping results from initial joint NASA/US Army Corps of Engineers experiment

Initial results from a series of joint NASA/US Army Corps of Engineers experiments are presented. The NASA Airborne Oceanographic Lidar (AOL) was exercised over various terrain conditions, collecting both profile and scan data from which river basin cross sections are extracted. Comparisons of the laser data with both photogrammetry and ground surveys are made, with 12 to 27 cm agreement observed over open ground. Foliage penetration tests, utilizing the unique time-waveform sampling capability of the AOL, indicate 50 cm agreement with photogrammetry (known to have difficulty in foliage covered terrain)