Semiparametric inference in mixture models with predictive recursion marginal likelihood

Predictive recursion is an accurate and computationally efficient algorithm for nonparametric estimation of mixing densities in mixture models. In semiparametric mixture models, however, the algorithm fails to account for any uncertainty in the additional unknown structural parameter. As an alternative to existing profile likelihood methods, we treat predictive recursion as a filter approximation to fitting a fully Bayes model, whereby an approximate marginal likelihood of the structural parameter emerges and can be used for inference. We call this the predictive recursion marginal likelihood. Convergence properties of predictive recursion under model mis-specification also lead to an attractive construction of this new procedure. We show pointwise convergence of a normalized version of this marginal likelihood function. Simulations compare the performance of this new marginal likelihood approach that of existing profile likelihood methods as well as Dirichlet process mixtures in density estimation. Mixed-effects models and an empirical Bayes multiple testing application in time series analysis are also considered

Characteristics of Magnetohydrodynamic Oscillations Observed with Michelson Doppler Imager

We report on the spatial distribution of magnetogram oscillatory power and phase angles between velocity and magnetogram signals as observed with the Michelson Doppler Imager. The dataset is 151.25 arcsec times 151.25 arcsec containing sunspot from Dec 2, 1997 with a temporal sampling interval of 60 seconds and spatial sampling of 0.605 arcsec. Simultaneously observed continuum intensity and surface velocity accompany the magnetic information. We focus on three frequency regimes: 0.5-1.0, 3.0-3.5 and 5.5-6.0 mHz corresponding roughly to timescales of magnetic evolution, p-modes and the 3 minute resonant sunspot oscillation. Significant low frequency magnetogram power is found in lower flux pixels, 100-300 Gauss, in a striking ring with filamentary structure surrounding sunspot. Five minute magnetogram power peaks in extended regions of flux 600-800 Gauss. The 3 minute oscillation is observed in sunspot umbra in pixels whose flux measures 1300-1500 Gauss. Phase angles of approximately -90 degrees between velocity and magnetic flux in the 3.0-3.5 and 5.5-6.0 mHz regimes are found in regions of significant cross amplitude.Comment: 4 Pages, 4 Figures -- For better Figure files see: http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~norton/pub_list.htm

Stability, vibration and passive damping of partially restrained imperfect columns

A theoretical and experimental study of slender tubular columns for possible use in space structures is conducted in the presence of partial rotational end restraints. Explicit formulas are derived for computing the buckling load and the lowest natural frequency of perfectly straight uniform elastic members with rotational end restraints possessing linear moment-rotation characteristics. An exact solution in the form of a transcendental equation, and a numerical solution using second-order finite-differences are also presented. The presence of an initial imperfection is also incorporated into the numerical procedure. Vibration tests are conducted on an imperfect tubular steel member in the absence of an axial load. A damping concept consisting of a string-mass assembly is explored. Three passive damping configurations involving combinations of three lead shots were investigated. The three lead shot configurations provided considerably greater damping than the single lead shot

HypTrails: A Bayesian Approach for Comparing Hypotheses About Human Trails on the Web

When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation, sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists. Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i) synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web.Comment: Published in the proceedings of WWW'1

Factors Associated with Recurrence of Varicose Veins after Thermal Ablation: Results of The Recurrent Veins after Thermal Ablation Study

Background. The goal of this retrospective cohort study (REVATA) was to determine the site, source, and contributory factors of varicose vein recurrence after radiofrequency (RF) and laser ablation. Methods. Seven centers enrolled patients into the study over a 1-year period. All patients underwent previous thermal ablation of the great saphenous vein (GSV), small saphenous vein (SSV), or anterior accessory great saphenous vein (AAGSV). From a specific designed study tool, the etiology of recurrence was identified. Results. 2,380 patients were evaluated during this time frame. A total of 164 patients had varicose vein recurrence at a median of 3 years. GSV ablation was the initial treatment in 159 patients (RF: 33, laser: 126, 52 of these patients had either SSV or AAGSV ablation concurrently). Total or partial GSV recanalization occurred in 47 patients. New AAGSV reflux occurred in 40 patients, and new SSV reflux occurred in 24 patients. Perforator pathology was present in 64% of patients. Conclusion. Recurrence of varicose veins occurred at a median of 3 years after procedure. The four most important factors associated with recurrent veins included perforating veins, recanalized GSV, new AAGSV reflux, and new SSV reflux in decreasing frequency. Patients who underwent RF treatment had a statistically higher rate of recanalization than those treated with laser

Uniaxial strain control of spin-polarization in multicomponent nematic order of BaFe2_{2}As2_{2}

The iron-based high temperature superconductors exhibit a rich phase diagram reflecting a complex interplay between spin, lattice, and orbital degrees of freedom [1-4]. The nematic state observed in many of these compounds epitomizes this complexity, by entangling a real-space anisotropy in the spin fluctuation spectrum with ferro-orbital order and an orthorhombic lattice distortion [5-7]. A more subtle and much less explored facet of the interplay between these degrees of freedom arises from the sizable spin-orbit coupling present in these systems, which translates anisotropies in real space into anisotropies in spin space. Here, we present a new technique enabling nuclear magnetic resonance under precise tunable strain control, which reveals that upon application of a tetragonal symmetry-breaking strain field, the magnetic fluctuation spectrum in the paramagnetic phase of BaFe$_{2}$As$_{2}$ also acquires an anisotropic response in spin-space. Our results unveil a hitherto uncharted internal spin structure of the nematic order parameter, indicating that similar to liquid crystals, electronic nematic materials may offer a novel route to magneto-mechanical control.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

{SoK}: {An} Analysis of Protocol Design: Avoiding Traps for Implementation and Deployment

Today's Internet utilizes a multitude of different protocols. While some of these protocols were first implemented and used and later documented, other were first specified and then implemented. Regardless of how protocols came to be, their definitions can contain traps that lead to insecure implementations or deployments. A classical example is insufficiently strict authentication requirements in a protocol specification. The resulting Misconfigurations, i.e., not enabling strong authentication, are common root causes for Internet security incidents. Indeed, Internet protocols have been commonly designed without security in mind which leads to a multitude of misconfiguration traps. While this is slowly changing, to strict security considerations can have a similarly bad effect. Due to complex implementations and insufficient documentation, security features may remain unused, leaving deployments vulnerable. In this paper we provide a systematization of the security traps found in common Internet protocols. By separating protocols in four classes we identify major factors that lead to common security traps. These insights together with observations about end-user centric usability and security by default are then used to derive recommendations for improving existing and designing new protocols---without such security sensitive traps for operators, implementors and users