Testing against stochastic trend and seasonality in the presence of unattended breaks and unit roots

This paper considers the problem of testing against stochastic trend and seasonality in the presence of structural breaks and unit roots at frequencies other than those directly under test, which we term unattended breaks and unattended unit roots respectively. We show that under unattended breaks the true size of the Kwiatkowski et. al. (1992) [KPSS] test at frequency zero and the Canova and Hansen (1995) [CH] test at the seasonal frequencies fall well below the nominal level under the null with an associated, often very dramatic, loss of power under the alternative. We demonstrate that a simple modification of the statistics can recover the usual limiting distribution appropriate to the case where there are no breaks, provided unit roots do not exist at any of the unattended frequencies. Where unattended unit roots occur we show that the above statistics converge in probability to zero under the null. However, computing the KPSS and CH statistics after pre-filtering the data is simultaneously efficacious against both unattended breaks and unattended unit roots, in the sense that the statistics retain their usual pivotal limiting null distributions appropriate to the case where neither occurs. The case where breaks may potentially occur at all frequencies is also discussed. The practical relevance of the theoretical contribution of the paper is illustrated through a number of empirical examples.stationarity tests, structural breaks, pre-filtering, unattended unit roots

Gypsum Dissolution Rate, New Data and Insights

Sinkholes linked to covered evaporite karst in urban environments still represent a challenge in hazard and risk assessment. The Quinis hamlet, located in Friuli Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy), is heavily affected by sinkhole phenomena (linked to an evaporitic bedrock), which deeply interested infrastructures and houses. In order to understand the evolution of the sinking phenomena, a field experiment started on the dissolution rate of the gypsum. In 17 existing piezometers, at different depths, 51 evaporitic rock samples were exposed to the naturally occurring variation of relative humidity, air flow and hydrodynamics. The rock samples were placed respectively in the aeration, in the fluctuation and in the phreatic section of the piezometric tubes. Data related to groundwater level fluctuations, temperature and electrical conductivity were collected. After four months, rock samples were removed, weighted and the volume loss evaluated. The obtained results indicate that rock sample reduction is not only dependent on the groundwater level fluctuations and on the number of days during which the samples are immersed in the groundwaters but also on the mineralization of the latter. Some of the rock samples have been almost completely dissolved, with dissolution rate values almost eight times bigger than expected if compared to the available literature data. The proposed approach had as aim to evaluate the quickness of the dissolution process, which is dependant on several causes (groundwater level fluctuations, type of rocks, chemical characteristics of the groundwaters, etc.) and represents a novel contribution to the overall knowledge of karst processes with noticeable impacts on human-built construction

Common faith or parting ways? A time varying parameters factor analysis of euro-area inflation

We analyze the interaction among the common and country specific components for the inflation rates in twelve euro area countries through a factor model with time varying parameters. The variation of the model parameters is driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, so that, conditionally on past data, the model is Gaussian and the likelihood function can be evaluated using the Kalman filter. The empirical analysis uncovers significant variation over time in the model parameters. We find that, over an extended time period, inflation persistence has fallen over time and the importance of common shocks has increased relatively to the idiosyncratic disturbances. According to the model, the fall in inflation observed since the sovereign debt crisis, is broadly a common phenomenon, since no significant cross country inflation differentials have emerged. Stressed countries, however, have been hit by unusually large shocks

Non-invasive methodological approach to detect and characterize high-risk sinkholes in urban cover evaporite karst: Integrated reflection seismics, PS-INSAR, leveling, 3D-GPR and ancillary data. a Ne Italian case study

Sinkholes linked to cover evaporite karst in urban environments still represent a challenge in terms of their clear identification and mapping considering the rehash and man-made structures. In the present research, we have proposed and tested a methodology to identify the subsiding features through an integrated and non-invasive multi-scale approach combining seismic reflection, PS-InSAR (PSI), leveling and full 3D Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and thus overpassing the limits of each method. The analysis was conducted in a small village in the Alta Val Tagliamento Valley (Friuli Venezia Giulia region, NE Italy). Here, sinkholes have been reported for a long time as well as the hazards linked to their presence. Within past years, several houses have been demolished and at present many of them are damaged. The PSI investigation allowed the identification of an area with higher vertical velocities; seismic reflection imagined the covered karst bedrock, identifying three depocenters; leveling data presented a downward displacement comparable with PSI results; 3D GPR, applied here for the first time in the study and characterization of sinkholes, defined shallow sinking features. Combining all the obtained results with accurate field observations, we identified and mapped the highest vulnerable zone

Marine macroalgae and their associated microbiomes as a source of antimicrobial chemical diversity

© 2017 British Phycological Society. This article reviews the role of microbial biofilms in infection, and the antimicrobial chemical diversity of marine macroalgae and their associated microbiomes. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents one of the major health threats faced by humanity over the next few years. To prevent a global epidemic of antimicrobial-resistant infections, the discovery of new antimicrobials and antibiotics, better anti-infection strategies and diagnostics, and changes to our current use of antibiotics have all become of paramount importance. Numerous studies investigating the bioactivities of seaweed extracts as well as their secondary and primary metabolites highlight the vast biochemical diversity of seaweeds, with new modes of action making them ideal sources for the discovery of novel antimicrobial bioactive compounds of pharmaceutical interest. In recent years, researchers have focused on characterizing the endophytic and epiphytic microbiomes of various algal species in an attempt to elucidate host-microbe interactions as well as to understand the function of microbial communities. Although environmental and host-associated factors crucially shape microbial composition, microbial mutualistic and obligate symbionts are often found to play a fundamental role in regulating many aspects of host fitness involving ecophysiology and metabolism. In particular, algal ‘core’ epiphytic bacterial communities play an important role in the protection of surfaces from biofouling, pathogens and grazers through the production of bioactive metabolites. Together, marine macroalgae and their associated microbiomes represent unique biological systems offering great potential for the isolation and identification of novel compounds and strategies to counteract the rise and dissemination of AMR

Behaviour and fate of nine recycled water trace organics during managed aquifer recharge in an aerobic aquifer

The fate of nine trace organic compounds was evaluated during a 12 month large-scale laboratory column experiment. The columns were packed with aquifer sediment and evaluated under natural aerobic and artificial anaerobic geochemical conditions, to assess the potential for natural attenuation of these compounds during aquifer passage associated with managed aquifer recharge (MAR). The nine trace organic compounds were bisphenol A (BPA), 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2), N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), N-nitrosomorpholine (NMOR), carbamazepine, oxazepam, iohexol and iodipamide. In the loworganic carbon content Spearwood sediment, all trace organicswere non-retardedwith retardation coefficients between 1.0 and 1.2, indicating that these compounds would travel at near groundwater velocities within the aquifer. The natural aerobic geochemical conditions provided a suitable environment for the rapid degradation for BPA, E2, iohexol (half life b1 day). Lag-times for the start of degradation of these compounds ranged from b15 to 30 days. While iodipamide was persistent under aerobic conditions, artificial reductive geochemical conditions promoted via the addition of ethanol, resulted in rapid degradation (half life b1 days). Pharmaceuticals (carbamazepine and oxazepam) and disinfection by-products (NDMA and NMOR) did not degrade under either aerobic or anaerobic aquifer geochemical conditions (half life N50 days). Field-based validation experiments with carbamazepine and oxazepam also showed no degradation. If persistent trace organics are present in recycled waters at concentrations in excess of their intended use, natural attenuation during aquifer passage alonemay not result in extracted watermeeting regulatory requirements. Additional pre treatment of the recycled water would therefore be required

Neutral processes dominate microbial community assembly in Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar

In recent years a wealth of studies have examined the relationships between a host and its microbiome across diverse taxa. Many studies characterise the host microbiome without considering the ecological processes that underpin microbiome assembly. In this study, the intestinal microbiota of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, sampled from farmed and wild environments was first characterised using 16s rDNA MiSeq sequencing analysis. We used neutral community models to determine the balance of stochastic and deterministic processes that underpin microbial community assembly and transfer across lifecycle stage and between gut compartments. Across gut compartments in farmed fish, neutral models suggest that most microbes are transient with no evidence of adaptation to their environment. In wild fish, we find declining taxonomic and functional microbial community richness as fish mature through different lifecycle stages. Alongside neutral community models applied to wild fish, we suggest declining richness demonstrates an increasing role for the host in filtering microbial communities that is correlated with age. We find a limited subset of gut microflora adapted to the farmed and wild host environment among which Mycoplasma sp. are prominent. Our study reveals the ecological drivers underpinning community assembly in both farmed and wild Atlantic salmon and underlines the importance of understanding the role of stochastic processes such as random drift and small migration rates in microbial community assembly, before considering any functional role of the gut microbes encountered

Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies

The 10 Meter South Pole Telescope

The South Pole Telescope (SPT) is a 10 m diameter, wide-field, offset Gregorian telescope with a 966-pixel, multi-color, millimeter-wave, bolometer camera. It is located at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole station in Antarctica. The design of the SPT emphasizes careful control of spillover and scattering, to minimize noise and false signals due to ground pickup. The key initial project is a large-area survey at wavelengths of 3, 2 and 1.3 mm, to detect clusters of galaxies via the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and to measure the small-scale angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The data will be used to characterize the primordial matter power spectrum and to place constraints on the equation of state of dark energy. A second-generation camera will measure the polarization of the CMB, potentially leading to constraints on the neutrino mass and the energy scale of inflation.Comment: 47 pages, 14 figures, updated to match version to be published in PASP 123 903 (May, 2011

Characterisation of Proteolysis Profile of Argentinean Sheep Cheeses Made by Two Different Production Methods

U radu su proučeni profili proteolize u argentinskom ovčjem siru napravljenim dvjema metodama proizvodnje kako bi se dobile tipične i definirane karakteristike. Proizvedeni su sirevi s mikrobnom kulturom Streptococcus thermophilus (S-sirevi) i sirevi s miješanom mikrobnom kulturom Streptococcus thermophilus i Lactobacillus bulgaricus (L-sirevi). Sirevi su dozrijevali na 12oC i 80% relativne vlažnosti kroz 180 dana i uzorci su uzimani tijekom tog vremenskog razdoblja. Rezultati pokazuju određene sličnosti ali i razlike, posebice u pH vrijednosti, dok je senzorska analiza pokazala bitne razlike između te dvije vrsta sireva. S-sirevi imaju niži stupanj proteolize i blaži okus, što ih čini prikladnim za konzumaciju nakon kratkog vremena dozrijevanja. L-sirevi imaju viši stupanj proteolize, te puno izraženija senzorska svojstva, što ih čini prikladnim za konzumaciju nakon duljeg vremena dozrijevanja.In this work the proteolysis profile of Argentinean sheep cheeses made by two production methods were studied in order to develop products with typical and defined features. Cheeses with a starter of Streptococcus thermophilus, (S-cheeses) and cheeses with a mixed starter of Streptococcus thermophilus and Lactobacillus bulgaricus, (L-cheeses) were manufactured. The cheeses were ripened at 12oC and 80% relative humidity for 180 days and samples were taken throughout this period. Results show similarities but also some differences, especially in pH value, while sensory evaluation indicated important differences between the two types of cheeses. S-cheeses had a low proteolysis and soft flavor, making them appropriate for consumption after a short ripening time. L-cheeses had a higher proteolysis level and more intense sensory characteristics, making them appropriate for consumption after a longer ripening time