Corona virus, tariffs, trade wars and supply chain evolutionary design

Purpose Using the constructal law of physics this study aims to provide guidance to future scholarship on global supply chain management. Further, through two case studies the authors are developing, the authors report interview findings with two senior VPs from two multi-national corporations being disrupted by COVID-19. This study suggests how this and recent events will impact on the design of future global supply chains. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the constructal law to explain the recent disruptions to the global supply chain orthodoxy. Two interviews are presented from case studies the authors are developing in the USA and UK – one a multi-national automobile parts supplier and the other is a earth-moving equipment manufacture. Specifically, this is an exploratory pathway work trying to make sense of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on supply chain scholarship. Findings Adopting the approach of Bejan, the authors believe that what is happening today with COVID-19 and other trade disruptions such as Brexit and the USA imposing tariffs is creating new obstacles that will redirect the future flow of supply chains. Research limitations/implications It is clear that the COVID-19 response introduced a bullwhip effect in the manufacturing sector on a scale never-before seen. For scholars, the authors would suggest there are four pathway topics going forward. These topics include: the future state of global sourcing, the unique nature of a combined “demand” and “supply shortage” bullwhip effect, the resurrection of lean and local production systems and the development of risk-recovery contingency strategies to deal with pandemics. Practical implications Supply chain managers tend to be iterative and focused on making small and subtle changes to their current system and way of thinking, very often seeking to optimize cost or negotiate better contracts with suppliers. In the current environment, however, such activities have proved to be of little consequence compared to the massive forces of economic disruption of the past three years. Organizations that have more tightly compressed supply chains are enjoying a significant benefit during the COVID-19 crisis and are no longer being held hostage to governments of another country. Social implications An implicit assumption in the press is that COVID-19 caught everyone by surprise, and that executives foolishly ignored the risks of outsourcing to China and are now paying the price. However, noted scholars and epidemiologists have been warning of the threats of pandemics since the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus. The pundits would further posit that in their pursuit of low-cost production, global corporations made naive assumptions that nothing could disrupt them. Both the firms the authors have interviewed had to close plants to protect their workforce. It was indicated in the cases the authors are developing that it is going to take manufacturers on average one month to recover from 4–6 days of disruption. These companies employ many thousands of people, and direct and ancillary workers are now temporarily laid off and face an uncertain future as/when they will recover back to normal production. Originality/value Using the constructal law of physics, the authors seek to provide guidance to future scholarship on global supply chain management. Further, through two case studies, the authors provide the first insight from two senior VPs from two leading multi-national corporations in their respective sectors being disrupted by COVID-19. This study is the first indication to how this and recent disruptive events will impact on the design of future global supply chains. Unlike the generic work, which has recently appeared in HBR and Forbes, it is grounded in real operational insight

A Perspective of Preconception Health Activities in the United States

Objectives: Information regarding the type and scope of preconception care programs in the United States is scant. We evaluated State Title V measurement and indicator data and abstracts presented at the National Summit on Preconception Care (June 2005) in order to identify existing programs and innovative strategies for preconception health promotion. Methods: We used the web-based Title V Information System to identify state Performance Measures and Priority Needs pertaining to preconception health as reported for the 2005–2010 Needs Assessment Cycle. We also present a detailed summary of the abstracts presented at the National Summit on Preconception Care. Results: A total of 23 states reported a Priority Need that focused on preconception health and health care. Forty-two states and jurisdictions identified a Performance Measure associated with preconception health or a related indicator (e.g., folic acid, birth spacing, family planning, unintended pregnancy, and healthy weight). Nearly 60 abstracts pertaining to preconception care were presented at the National Summit and included topics such as research, programs, patient or provider toolkits, clinical practice strategies, and public policy. Conclusions: Strategies for improving preconception health have been incorporated into numerous programs throughout the United States. Widespread recognition of the benefits of preconception health promotion is evidenced by the number of states identifying related indicators

The NeuARt II system: a viewing tool for neuroanatomical data based on published neuroanatomical atlases

BACKGROUND: Anatomical studies of neural circuitry describing the basic wiring diagram of the brain produce intrinsically spatial, highly complex data of great value to the neuroscience community. Published neuroanatomical atlases provide a spatial framework for these studies. We have built an informatics framework based on these atlases for the representation of neuroanatomical knowledge. This framework not only captures current methods of anatomical data acquisition and analysis, it allows these studies to be collated, compared and synthesized within a single system. RESULTS: We have developed an atlas-viewing application ('NeuARt II') in the Java language with unique functional properties. These include the ability to use copyrighted atlases as templates within which users may view, save and retrieve data-maps and annotate them with volumetric delineations. NeuARt II also permits users to view multiple levels on multiple atlases at once. Each data-map in this system is simply a stack of vector images with one image per atlas level, so any set of accurate drawings made onto a supported atlas (in vector graphics format) could be uploaded into NeuARt II. Presently the database is populated with a corpus of high-quality neuroanatomical data from the laboratory of Dr Larry Swanson (consisting 64 highly-detailed maps of PHAL tract-tracing experiments, made up of 1039 separate drawings that were published in 27 primary research publications over 17 years). Herein we take selective examples from these data to demonstrate the features of NeuArt II. Our informatics tool permits users to browse, query and compare these maps. The NeuARt II tool operates within a bioinformatics knowledge management platform (called 'NeuroScholar') either as a standalone or a plug-in application. CONCLUSION: Anatomical localization is fundamental to neuroscientific work and atlases provide an easily-understood framework that is widely used by neuroanatomists and non-neuroanatomists alike. NeuARt II, the neuroinformatics tool presented here, provides an accurate and powerful way of representing neuroanatomical data in the context of commonly-used brain atlases for visualization, comparison and analysis. Furthermore, it provides a framework that supports the delivery and manipulation of mapped data either as a standalone system or as a component in a larger knowledge management system

Left ventricular twist mechanics during incremental cycling and knee extension exercise in healthy men

Purpose: The objective of the present study was to investigate left ventricular (LV) twist mechanics in response to incremental cycling and isometric knee extension exercises. Methods: Twenty-six healthy male participants (age = 30.42 ± 6.17 years) were used to study peak twist mechanics at rest and during incremental semi-supine cycling at 30 and 60% work rate maximum (W) and during short duration (15 s contractions) isometric knee extension at 40 and 75% maximum voluntary contraction (MVC), using two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography. Results: Data presented as mean ± standard deviation or median (interquartile range). LV twist increased from rest to 30% W (13.21° ± 4.63° to 20.04° ± 4.76°, p  0.05), whilst twisting velocity increased (rest 89.15° ± 21.77° s to 75% MVC 124.32° ± 34.89° s, p  0.05) then increased from 40 to 75% MVC [−98.44 (43.54)° s to −138.42 (73.29)° s, p < 0.01]. Apical rotations and rotational velocities were greater than basal during all conditions and intensities (all p < 0.01). Conclusion: Cycling increased LV twist to 30% W which then remained unchanged thereafter, whereas twisting velocities showed further increases to greater intensities. A novel finding is that LV twist was unaffected by incremental knee extension, yet systolic and diastolic twisting velocities augmented with isometric exercise

Functional assessment of older patients in the emergency department: comparison between standard instruments, medical records and physicians' perceptions

BACKGROUND: We evaluated the accuracy of physician recognition of functional status impairment in older emergency departments (ED) patients. In particular, we evaluated the accuracy of medical records (a comparison of the information in the medical record with the functional status based on proxy interviews), and the accuracy of physician knowledge (a comparison of the information obtained from the responsible physician with the functional status based on proxy interviews). METHODS: Cross-sectional study on 101 frail older patients selected at random from among those attending ED, their ED physicians, and respondents. The study was conducted at ED in four general university teaching hospitals in a city, from July through November 2003. Functional data shown on patients' medical records were compared against functional data obtained from respondents (family members), using Kendall's Tau-b statistic. In addition patients' Katz Indices (which assesses six basic activities of daily living – basic ADL) based on interviews with ED physicians were compared against those obtained from respondents, using the coefficient of concordance weighted kappa (κ). Each patient and his respondent were paired with a single physician. RESULTS: The correlation between information on dependence for basic ADL obtained from medical records and that furnished by respondents, was 0.41 (95% CI 0.27–0.55). Concordance between the respective Katz Indices obtained from physicians and respondents was 0.47 (95% CI 0.38–0.57). CONCLUSION: Older subjects' functional status is not properly assessed by emergency department physicians

Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET) structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET)) and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. METHODS: Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia). Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. RESULTS: All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188) than before (85–129.5). In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery). CONCLUSION: This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review

The DARS (Dopamine Augmented Rehabilitation in Stroke) trial: protocol for a randomised controlled trial of Co-careldopa treatment in addition to routine NHS occupational and physical therapy after stroke

Background: Stroke has a huge impact, leaving more than a third of affected people with lasting disability and rehabilitation remains a cornerstone treatment in the National Health Service (NHS). Recovery of mobility and arm function post-stroke occurs through re-learning to use the affected body parts and/or learning to compensate with the lesser affected side. Promising evidence suggests that the addition of Co-careldopa to physical therapy and occupational therapy may improve the recovery of arm and leg movement and lead to improved function. Methods/design: Dopamine Augmented Rehabilitation in Stroke (DARS) is a multi-centre double-blind, randomised, placebo, controlled clinical trial of Co-careldopa in addition to routine NHS occupational therapy and physical therapy as part of early stroke rehabilitation. Participants will be randomised on a 1:1 basis to either Co-careldopa or placebo. The primary objective of the trial is to determine whether the addition of six weeks of Co-careldopa treatment to rehabilitation therapy can improve the proportion of patients who can walk independently eight weeks post-randomisation. Discussion: The DARS trial will provide evidence as to whether Co-careldopa, in addition to routine NHS occupational and physical therapy, leads to a greater recovery of motor function, a reduction in carer dependency and advance rehabilitation treatments for people with stroke. Trial registration: ISRCTN99643613 assigned on 4 December 2009

Psychological morbidity as a moderator of intention to quit smoking : a study of smokers and former smokers

Objective: To analyze psychological morbidity as a moderator of the relationship between smoking representations and quality of life in smokers and former smokers, as well as to determine which psychological variables discriminate between smokers with and without the intention to quit smoking. Methods: This was a quantitative, correlational cross-sectional study involving a convenience sample of 224 smokers and 169 former smokers. Results: In smokers and former smokers, psychological morbidity had a moderating effect on the relationship between mental/physical quality of life and smoking representations (cognitive representations, emotional representations, and comprehensibility). Smokers with the intention to quit smoking more often presented with low comprehensibility, threatening emotional representations, behavioral beliefs, and perceived behavioral control, as well as with normative/control beliefs, than did those without the intention to quit. Conclusions: The results of this study underscore the importance of the moderating effect exerted by psychological morbidity, as well as that of sociocognitive variables, among smokers who have the intention to quit smoking.ResumoObjetivo: Analisar a morbidade psicológica como um moderador na relação entre as representações do tabaco e a qualidade de vida em fumantes e ex-fumantes, assim como conhecer as variáveis psicológicas que discriminam os fumantes com e sem intenção para deixar de fumar. Métodos: Estudo quantitativo, correlacional e transversal com uma amostra de conveniência constituída por 224 fumantes e 169 ex-fumantes. Resultados: Verificou-se um efeito moderador da morbidade psicológica na relação entre a qualidade de vida (física e mental) e as representações do tabaco (representações cognitivas e emocionais e compreensão) nos fumantes e nos ex-fumantes. Os fumantes com intenção para deixar de fumar apresentavam menor compreensão, representações emocionais mais ameaçadoras, mais crenças de comportamento, maior controle comportamental percebido e mais crenças normativas/controle do que aqueles sem essa intenção. Conclusões: Os resultados deste estudo enfatizam a importância da morbidade psicológica como moderadora, bem como das variáveis sociocognitivas, junto dos fumantes que querem deixar de fumar