Fixed-B Asymptotics in Single Equation Cointegration Models with Endogenous Regressors

This note uses fixed bandwidth (fixed-b) asymptotic theory to suggest a new approach to testing cointegration parameters in a single-equation cointegration environment. It is shown that the standard tests still have asymptotic distributions that are free of serial correlation nuisance parameters regardless of the bandwidth or kernel used, even if the regressors in the cointegration relationship are endogenous.

Dynamics of the Planning Solution in the Discrete-Time Textbook Model of Labor Market Search and Matching.

This paper takes a discrete-time adaptation of the continuous−time matching economy described in Pissarides (1990, 2000), and computes the solution to the dynamic planning problem. The solution is shown to be completely characterized by a first−order, non−linear map. We show that the map admits a unique stationary solution which is dynamically unstable. Oscillatory solutions are possible but there is no possibility of periodic solutions. The planner picks the initial condition that places the economy directly on the steady state. Our results are in sharp contrast to received wisdom on out−of−steady−state dynamics in the continuous−time decentralized version of the Pissarides model where adjustment to the steady state is non−instantaneous, and overshooting of vacancies is possible.

Can Racially Unbiased Police Perpetuate Long-Run Discrimination?

We develop a stylized dynamic model of highway policing in which a non-racist police officer exhibits a cognitive bias: relative overconfidence. The officer is given incentives to arrest criminals but faces a per stop cost which increases when the racial mix of her stops differs from that of the population. Every period, she observes the racial composition of jail inmates (generated from arrests made by her peers) and forms estimates about the crime rates of each race. In some settings, her overconfidence leads her to overestimate the crime rate of one race relative to another causing the long-run racial composition of the jail population to deviate from the "fair" one (one where the racial mix in jails is identical to that in the criminal population). We compare this to a situation where officers have detailed stop data on each race, similar to data being currently collected in many US states.

Powerful Trend Function Tests That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch Singer Hypothesis

In this paper we propose tests for hypothesis regarding the parameters of a the deterministic trend function of a univariate time series. The tests do not require knowledge of the form of serial correlation in the data and they are robust to strong serial correlation. The data can contain a unit root and the tests still have the correct size asymptotically. The tests we analyze are standard heteroskedasticity autocorrelation (HAC) robust tests based on nonparametric kernel variance estimators. We analyze these tests using the small-b asymptotic framework recently proposed by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2002). This analysis allows us to analyze the power properties of the tests with regards to bandwidth and kernel choices. Our analysis shows that among popular kernels, there are specific kernel and bandwidth choices that deliver tests with maximal power within a specific class of tests. We apply the recommended tests to the logarithm of a net barter terms of trade series and we find that this series has a statistically significant negative slope. This finding is consistent with the well known Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Because our tests are robust to strong serial correlation or a unit root in the data, our results in support of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis are relatively strong.Estimator, Fixed-b Asymptotics, Power Envelope, Unit Root, Nearly Integrated, Partial Sum, Deterministic Trend, Linear Trend.

Endogenous lifetime and economic growth revisited

Chakraborty [Journal of Economic Theory, 2004] introduces endogenous mortality in a two period overlapping generations model by postulating that the probability of surviving from the first period to the second depends on tax-funded public health. His central result on the existence of multiple steady states (including development traps) summarized in Proposition 1 is incorrect. This paper presents the correct proposition and its proof, and in the process, uncovers several new, interesting results. Contrary to Chakraborty's analysis, high mortality yet high capital nations may not be able to escape the poverty trap. Interestingly, TFP growth can help economies escape the vicious cycle of poverty.

Dynamics of the planning solution in the discrete-time textbook model of labor market search and matching

This paper takes a discrete-time adaptation of the continuous-time matching economy described in Pissarides (1990, 2000), and computes the solution to the dynamic planning problem. The solution is shown to be completely characterized by a first-order, non-linear map. We show that the map admits a unique stationary solution which is dynamically unstable. Oscillatory solutions are possible but there is no possibility of periodic solutions. The planner picks the initial condition that places the economy directly on the steady state. Our results are in sharp contrast to received wisdom on out-of-steady-state dynamics in the continuous-time decentralized version of the Pissarides model where adjustment to the steady state is non-instantaneous, and overshooting of vacancies is possible.dynamics

The Taylor Rule and 'Opportunistic' Monetary Policy

We investigate the possibility that the Taylor rule should be formulated as a threshold process such that the Federal Reserve acts more aggressively in some circumstances than in others. It seems reasonable that the Federal Reserve would act more aggressively when inflation is high than when it is low. Similarly, it might be expected that the Federal Reserve responds more to a negative than a positive output gap. Although these specifications receive some empirical support, we find that a modified threshold model that is consistent with “opportunistic†monetary policy makes significant progress towards explaining Federal Reserve behavior.taylor rule; cointegration; structural break

Fixed bandwidth asymptotics in single equation models of cointegration with an application to money demand

This note uses fixed bandwidth (fixed-b) asymptotic theory to suggest a new approach to testing cointegration parameters in a single-equation cointegration environment. It is shown that the standard tests still have asymptotic distributions that are free of serial correlation nuisance parameters regardless of the bandwidth or kernel used, even if the regressors in the cointegration relationship are endogenous

Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis

In this paper we propose tests for hypotheses regarding the parameters of the deterministic trend function of a univariate time series. The tests do not require knowledge of the form of serial correlation in the data and they are robust to strong serial correlation. The data can contain a unit root and the tests still have the correct size asymptotically. The tests we analyze are standard heteroskedasticity autocorrelation (HAC) robust tests based on nonparametric kernel variance estimators. We analyze these tests using the ï¾…xed-b asymptotic framework recently proposed by Kiefer and Vogelsang (2002). This analysis allows us to analyze the power properties of the tests with regards to bandwidth and kernel choices. Our analysis shows that among popular kernels, there are speciï¾…c kernel and bandwidth choices that deliver tests with maximal power within a speciï¾…c class of tests. Based on the theoretical results, we propose a data dependent bandwidth rule that maximizes integrated power. Our recommended test is shown to have power that dominates a related test proposed by Vogelsang (1998). We apply the recommended test to the logarithm of a net barter terms of trade series and we ï¾…nd that this series has a statistically signiï¾…cant negative slope. This ï¾…nding is consistent with the well known Prebisch-Singer hypothesis.