Through a Smoother Lens: An expected absence of LCDM substructure detections from hydrodynamic and dark matter only simulations

A fundamental prediction of the cold dark matter cosmology is the existence of a large number of dark subhalos around galaxies, most of which should be entirely devoid of stars. Confirming the existence of dark substructures stands among the most important empirical challenges in modern cosmology: if they are found and quantified with the mass spectrum expected, then this would close the door on a vast array of competing theories. But in order for observational programs of this kind to reach fruition, we need robust predictions. Here we explore substructure predictions for lensing using galaxy lens-like hosts at z=0.2 from the Illustris simulations both in full hydrodynamics and dark matter only. We quantify substructures more massive than ~ 10^9 M_sun, comparable to current lensing detections derived from HST, Keck, and ALMA. The addition of full hydrodynamics reduces the overall subhalo mass function by about a factor of two. Even for the dark matter only runs, most (~ 85%) lines of sight through projected cylinders of size close to an Einstein radius contain no substructures larger than 10^9 M_sun. The fraction of empty sight lines rises to ~ 95% in full physics simulations. This suggests we will likely need hundreds of strong lensing systems suitable for substructure studies, as well as predictions that include the effects of baryon physics on substructure, to properly constrain cosmological models. Fortunately, the field is poised to fulfill these requirements.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure

Angular Momentum Profiles of Warm Dark Matter Halos

We compare the specific angular momentum profiles of virialized dark halos in cold dark matter (CDM) and warm dark matter (WDM) models using high-resolution dissipationless simulations. The simulations were initialized using the same set of modes, except on small scales, where the power was suppressed in WDM below the filtering length. Remarkably, WDM as well as CDM halos are well-described by the two-parameter angular momentum profile of Bullock et al. (2001), even though the halo masses are below the filtering scale of the WDM. Although the best-fit shape parameters change quantitatively for individual halos in the two simulations, we find no systematic variation in profile shapes as a function of the dark matter type. The scatter in shape parameters is significantly smaller for the WDM halos, suggesting that substructure and/or merging history plays a role producing scatter about the mean angular momentum distribution, but that the average angular momentum profiles of halos originate from larger-scale phenomena or a mechanism associated with the virialization process. The known mismatch between the angular momentum distributions of dark halos and disk galaxies is therefore present in WDM as well as CDM models. Our WDM halos tend to have a less coherent (more misaligned) angular momentum structure and smaller spin parameters than do their CDM counterparts, although we caution that this result is based on a small number of halos.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure, Submitted to ApJ

Reductions in connectivity and habitat quality drive local extinctions in a plant diversity hotspot

It is well documented that habitat loss is a major cause of biodiversity decline. However, the roles of the different aspects of habitat loss in local extinctions are less understood. Anthropogenic destruction of an area of habitat causes immediate local extinction but subsequently three additional gradual drivers influence the likelihood of delayed extinction: decreased habitat patch size, lower connectivity and habitat deterioration. We investigated the role of these drivers in local extinctions of 82 declining species in a UK biodiversity hotspot. We combined a unique set of ≈7000 vegetation surveys and habitat maps from the 1930s with contemporary species’ occurrences. We extrapolated from these surveys to the whole 2500-km2 study area using habitat suitability surfaces. The strengths of drivers in explaining local extinctions over this 70 year period were determined by contrasting connectivity, patch size and habitat quality loss for locations at which a species went extinct and those with persisting occurrences. Species’ occurrences declined on average by 60%, with half of local extinctions attributable to immediate habitat loss and half to the gradual processes causing delayed extinctions. On average, locations where a species persisted had a 73% higher contemporary connectivity than those suffering extinctions, but showed no differences in historical connectivity. Furthermore, locations with extinctions experienced a 37% greater decline in suitability associated with changes in habitat type. The strength of the drivers and the proportion of extinctions depended on the species’ habitat specialism, but were affected only minimally by life-history characteristics. In conclusion, we identified a hierarchy of drivers influencing local extinction: with connectivity loss being the strongest, suitability change being moderately important, but changes in habitat patch size having only weak effects. We suggest conservation efforts could be most effective by strengthening connectivity along with reducing habitat deterioration, which would benefit a wide range of species

Input-Output and Hybrid Techniques for Real-Time Prediction of Delay and Maximum Queue Length at Signalized Intersections

Vehicle delay and queue length are quantitative measures of intersection performance. The technological advancement in the field of vehicle sensors and traffic controllers has reached a point where it has enabled efficient measurement of these performance measures. Two techniques are presented for real-time measurement of vehicle delay and queue length at a signalized Intersection, and these automated delay and queue estimates are compared with manually ground-truthed measurement. These techniques were evaluated at an instrumented intersection in Noblesville, Indiana. The root-mean-square error by both techniques was below 0.7 veh-s for-estimation of average delay and less than 0.15 vehicle for estimation of average maximum queue length, both on a cycle-by-cycle basis

Carbon pools recover more quickly than plant biodiversity in tropical secondary forests.

Although increasing efforts are being made to restore tropical forests, little information is available regarding the time scales required for carbon and plant biodiversity to recover to the values associated with undisturbed forests. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out a meta-analysis comparing data from more than 600 secondary tropical forest sites with nearby undisturbed reference forests. Above-ground biomass approached equivalence to reference values within 80 years since last disturbance, whereas below-ground biomass took longer to recover. Soil carbon content showed little relationship with time since disturbance. Tree species richness recovered after about 50 years. By contrast, epiphyte richness did not reach equivalence to undisturbed forests. The proportion of undisturbed forest trees and epiphyte species found in secondary forests was low and changed little over time. Our results indicate that carbon pools and biodiversity show different recovery rates under passive, secondary succession and that colonization by undisturbed forest plant species is slow. Initiatives such as the Convention on Biological Diversity and REDD+ should therefore encourage active management to help to achieve their aims of restoring both carbon and biodiversity in tropical forests

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data : how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Acknowledgements LS was supported by two STSMs by the COST Action ES1101 ”Harmonising Global Biodiversity Modelling“ (Harmbio), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). JMB and SMW were funded by CEH projects NEC05264 and NEC05100. JMJT and SCFP are grateful for the support of the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NE/J008001/1). LS, JAH and JMJT conceived the original idea. LS, JAH, JMB, TC & JMJT designed the study; LS collected the data; LS and TC performed the statistical analyses; LS conducted the integrodifference modelling assisted by JMB and SMW. LS conducted the individual-based modelling assisted by SCFP. LS led the writing supported by JMJT, JMB, SCFP, SMW, TC, JAH and GB.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Mechanistic species distribution modeling reveals a niche shift during invasion

Niche shifts of nonnative plants can occur when they colonize novel climatic conditions. However, the mechanistic basis for niche shifts during invasion is poorly understood and has rarely been captured within species distribution models. We quantified the consequence of between-population variation in phenology for invasion of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) across Europe. Ragweed is of serious concern because of its harmful effects as a crop weed and because of its impact on public health as a major aeroallergen. We developed a forward mechanistic species distribution model based on responses of ragweed development rates to temperature and photoperiod. The model was parameterized and validated from the literature and by reanalyzing data from a reciprocal common garden experiment in which native and invasive populations were grown within and beyond the current invaded range. It could therefore accommodate between-population variation in the physiological requirements for flowering, and predict the potentially invaded ranges of individual populations. Northern-origin populations that were established outside the generally accepted climate envelope of the species had lower thermal requirements for bud development, suggesting local adaptation of phenology had occurred during the invasion. The model predicts that this will extend the potentially invaded range northward and increase the average suitability across Europe by 90% in the current climate and 20% in the future climate. Therefore, trait variation observed at the population scale can trigger a climatic niche shift at the biogeographic scale. For ragweed, earlier flowering phenology in established northern populations could allow the species to spread beyond its current invasive range, substantially increasing its risk to agriculture and public health. Mechanistic species distribution models offer the possibility to represent niche shifts by varying the traits and niche responses of individual populations. Ignoring such effects could substantially underestimate the extent and impact of invasions

Evaluation of Alternative Intersections and Interchanges: Volume II—Diverging Diamond Interchange Signal Timing

This report presents findings from field studies of operations at diverging diamond interchanges (DDIs) in Salt Lake City, Utah and Fort Wayne, Indiana. These discuss optimization of signal offsets both within the DDI, and with the DDI integrated as part of an arterial corridor. Optimization of Fort Wayne, Indiana corridor comprising the DDI and three neighboring intersections yielded an annualized user benefit of $564,000, when assessing origin-destination paths both along the arterial and for movements to and from the freeway. This is the first field study of DDI offset optimization with neighboring intersections. Additionally, a pilot study was carried out in Salt Lake City on a new phasing scheme that incorporated a “holdback” phase into the signal sequence that delayed vehicles exiting the ramp in order to better coordinate their arrival at the downstream intersection, increasing the percent on green from 53% to 92%. The report concludes with a discussion of practical issues pertaining to DDI signal timing and provides a series of guidelines to assist in the design of new signal timing plans for future DDI deployments

Inventory and review of quantitative models for spread of plant pests for use in pest risk assessment for the EU territory

This report considers the prospects for increasing the use of quantitative models for plant pest spread and dispersal in EFSA Plant Health risk assessments. The agreed major aims were to provide an overview of current modelling approaches and their strengths and weaknesses for risk assessment, and to develop and test a system for risk assessors to select appropriate models for application. First, we conducted an extensive literature review, based on protocols developed for systematic reviews. The review located 468 models for plant pest spread and dispersal and these were entered into a searchable and secure Electronic Model Inventory database. A cluster analysis on how these models were formulated allowed us to identify eight distinct major modelling strategies that were differentiated by the types of pests they were used for and the ways in which they were parameterised and analysed. These strategies varied in their strengths and weaknesses, meaning that no single approach was the most useful for all elements of risk assessment. Therefore we developed a Decision Support Scheme (DSS) to guide model selection. The DSS identifies the most appropriate strategies by weighing up the goals of risk assessment and constraints imposed by lack of data or expertise. Searching and filtering the Electronic Model Inventory then allows the assessor to locate specific models within those strategies that can be applied. This DSS was tested in seven case studies covering a range of risk assessment scenarios, pest types and dispersal mechanisms. These demonstrate the effectiveness of the DSS for selecting models that can be applied to contribute to EFSA Plant Health risk assessments. Therefore, quantitative spread and dispersal modelling has potential to improve current risk assessment protocols and contribute to reducing the serious impacts of plant pests in Europe