Failing the formative phase: The global diffusion of nuclear power is limited by national markets

Understanding the role of technology characteristics and the context in the diffusion of new energy technologies is important for assessing feasibility of climate mitigation. We examine the historical adoption of nuclear power as a case of a complex large scale energy technology. We conduct an event history analysis of grid connections of first sizable commercial nuclear power reactors in 79 countries between 1950 and 2018. We show that the introduction of nuclear power can largely be explained by contextual variables such as the proximity of a country to a major technology supplier (‘ease of diffusion’), the size of the economy, electricity demand growth, and energy import dependence (‘market attractiveness’). The lack of nuclear newcomers in the early 1990s can be explained by the lack of countries with high growth in electricity demand and sufficient capacities to build their first nuclear power plant, either on their own or with international help. We also find that nuclear accidents, the pursuit of nuclear weapons, and the advances made in competing technologies played only a minor role in nuclear technology failing to be established in more countries. Our analysis improves understanding of the feasibility of introducing contested and expensive technologies in a heterogenous world with motivations and capacities that differ across countries and by a patchwork of international relations. While countries with high state capacity or support from a major technology supplier are capable of introducing large-scale technologies quickly, technology diffusion to other regions might undergo significant delays due to lower motivations and capacities

Hintergründe und Analyse des Präsentationsdiagramms "Unwohlsein beim Erwachsenen" des Manchester Triage Systems

Ein großer Anteil der Notfallpatienten stellt sich mit unspezifischen Symptomen, den sogenannten „Nonspecific Complaints“ in der Notaufnahme vor. Hierbei nimmt das Präsentationsdiagramm „Unwohlsein beim Erwachsenen“ des Manchester Triage Systems eine besondere Rolle ein, da es sich selbst als Repräsentant dieser unspezifischen Symptome definiert. Ziel dieser monozentrischen und retrospektiven Beobachtungsstudie war es, das Präsentationsdiagramm bezüglich seiner Anwendung und Validität zu untersuchen. Hierbei wurden Daten über einen Zeitraum von 5 Monaten vom 12. März bis 12. August 2019 erhoben, wobei sich insgesamt 14.636 Patienten im Interdisziplinären Notfallzentrum des Universitätsklinikums vorstellten. Hiervon wurden 1.143 Patienten mit dem Präsentationsdiagramm „Unwohlsein beim Erwachsenen“ triagiert, sodass dieses Präsentationsdiagramm das am dritt häufigsten verwendete Präsentationsdiagramm überhaupt darstellt. Sowohl die CEDIS Klassifikation als auch die verwendeten ICD-10- Kapitel der Patienten des Präsentationsdiagramms „Unwohlsein beim Erwachsenen“ verdeutlichen, dass sich der Großteil dieser Patienten mit unspezifischen Symptomen in der Notaufnahme vorstellte. Betrachtet man das Triagelevel dieser Patienten, so wird deutlich, dass diese im Schnitt weniger dringlich eingestuft wurden als die restlichen Präsentationsdiagramme. Insbesondere bei Betrachtung der Triagelevel der Patienten, die im weiteren Verlauf des Krankenhausaufenthalts verstorben sind, fällt auf, dass diese deutlich seltener mit den höchsten Dringlichkeitsstufen der Triage klassifiziert wurden als bei den restlichen Präsentationsdiagrammen. Insgesamt ergibt sich zudem eine signifikant erhöhte Mortalität für die Gruppe mit dem Präsentationsdiagramm „Unwohlsein beim Erwachsenen“ im Vergleich zu den restlichen Präsentationsdiagrammen. Auch in Bezug auf die stationäre Aufnahme ergeben sich signifikante Unterschiede. So müssen Patienten welche mit dem Präsentationsdiagramm „Unwohlsein beim Erwachsenen“ triagiert werden, deutlich häufiger stationär aufgenommen werden als die restlichen Präsentationsdiagramme (p Insgesamt ergibt sich hierbei durch die Unspezifität der Symptome und die erschwerte Zuordnung zu einem Krankheitsbild die Gefahr, dass bei dem Präsentationsdiagramm „Unwohlsein beim Erwachsenen“ die Schwere der Erkrankung nicht erkannt oder unterschätzt wird. Die Qualität der Ersteinschätzung im Sinne einer gut funktionierenden Dringlichkeitseinstufung ist deutlich geringer als die in der Literatur beschriebene Genauigkeit des Manchester Triage Systems

Why Ambitious and Just Climate Mitigation Needs Political Science

A large-scale transformation of the energy system, which climate mitigation entails, is a global and highly politicized problem. This thematic issue brings together scholars who work with Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)—which are used for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and other key analyses of future climate trajectories—and social scientists working on climate and energy issues to highlight how the two strands of research could benefit from combining insights across different disciplines and methods. One of the key messages across almost all contributions is that the more technical perspectives could benefit from adjusting their assumptions to reflect the patterns observed in quantitative and qualitative social science. Combining different disciplines is methodologically challenging but promising to ensure that the mitigation strategies developed are considered technically and politically feasible, as well as just

Caracterização transcricional de infiltrados imunológicos e sua relação com a sobrevida de pacientes com glioblastoma

Introdução: A complexidade das populações de células do sistema imunológico infiltrando tumores humanos com seus efeitos sinérgicos ou antagônicos pode influenciar os tumores de forma diferente. Embora as células do sistema imunológico sejam encontradas dentro do sítio tumoral, a razão para incapacidade do sistema imunológico em eliminar o tumor foram pouco elucidadas. Objetivo: Avaliar a importância das diferentes populações de células no sistema imunológico presentes no microambiente tumoral de glioblastoma e seus efeitos sobre as demais células em relação ao prognóstico dos pacientes. Metodologia: Foram utilizados dados de transcriptoma e dados clínicos gerados pelo The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) e meta-assinaturas representando diferentes células do sistema imunológico previamente descritas. A relação entre as meta-assinaturas foi avaliada através de análises de mapa de calor e correlação de Pearson. As análises de sobrevida foram realizadas através de gráficos de Kaplan-Meier das meta-assinaturas individualmente, com dois e três elementos. Resultados e Discussão: Assinaturas transcricionais de diversas populações do sistema imunológico com papel imunossupressor foram encontradas infiltrando tumores de pacientes com glioblastoma, tais como macrófagos, células NK e NK T, MDSCs e Tregs e correlacionaram com um pior prognóstico dos pacientes. As meta-assinaturas T CD8+ e CD4+ não foram capazes de predizer o prognóstico dos pacientes sozinhas. No entanto, na ausência de elementos de imunossupressão, os pacientes com alta expressão da meta-assinatura de células T CD8+ mostraram melhor sobrevida em relação aos demais. Observamos uma divisão das meta-assinaturas em 4 conjuntos distintos, sendo um deles formado por Macrófagos, MDSCs e Tregs demonstrando pior prognóstico e outro cluster contendo CD4 e CD8 conferindo um melhor prognóstico, ambos quando altamente expressos. Esses resultados não se repetiram para gliomas de grau II e III. Conclusão: Se considerarmos as assinaturas transcricionais dos diferentes aspectos da resposta imunológica de forma integrada, teremos um impacto preditivo sobre a sobrevivência com papel positivo para a meta-assinatura referente a linfócitos CD8 e negativos para as meta-assinaturas de macrófagos, MDSC, Tregs, NK e NK T em pacientes com glioblastoma pacientes. A compreensão acerca desses diversos fatores reguladores e estimuladores do sistema imunológico no paciente, bem como no microambiente tumoral, é essencial para delinear uma estratégia eficaz com o objetivo de aumentar a resposta imune antitumoral e gerar benefícios clínicos reais.Introduction: The complexity of immune cell populations infiltrating human tumors with their synergistic or antagonistic effects may influence tumors differently. Although immune cells are found within the tumor site, the reason for the incapacity of the immune system in eliminating the tumor has hardly been elucidated. Objective: To evaluate the importance of different immune cell populations present in the glioblastoma tumor microenvironment and its effects on the other immune cells. Methodology: Transcriptome and clinical data were generated by The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and meta-signatures representing different cells of the immune system previously described were used. The relationship between meta-signatures was evaluated through heat-map analysis and Pearson's correlation. Survival analysis were performed through Kaplan-Meier plots of meta-signatures individually, with two and with three elements. Results and discussion: Infiltrating immune cells with immunosuppressive role were found in patients with glioblastoma, such as macrophages, NK and NK T cells, MDSCs and Tregs, and were correlated with poorer prognosis of patients. The CD8 + and CD4 + T meta-signatures were not able to predict patients’ prognosis alone. However, in the absence of immunosuppressive elements, patients with higher levels of CD8 + T-cell meta-signatures showed better survival than the opposite expression profile. We observed a division of meta-signatures into four clusters. The cluster consisting of macrophages, MDSCs and Tregs demonstrated the worst prognosis and the cluster containing CD4 and CD8 conferred the best prognosis, when both meta-signatures were highly expressed. These results were not reproduced for grade II and III gliomas. Conclusion: If we consider the transcriptional signatures of the different response immunological aspects in an integrated way, they will have a predictive impact on survival with positive role for CD8 and negative roles for macrophages, MDSC, Tregs, NK and NK T meta-signatures in glioblastoma patients. Understanding these regulatory factors and stimulators of the patients' immune system, as well as the tumor microenvironment, is essential to delineate an effective strategy to increase the anti-tumor immune response and generate real clinical benefits

Emissions Lock-in, Capacity, and Public Opinion: How Insights From Political Science Can Inform Climate Modeling Efforts

The implementation of ambitious climate policies consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement is fundamentally influenced by political dynamics. Yet, thus far, climate mitigation pathways developed by integrated assessment models (IAMs) have devoted limited attention to the political drivers of climate policymaking. Bringing together insights from the political science and socio-technical transitions literature, we summarize evidence on how emissions lock-in, capacity, and public opinion can shape climate policy ambition. We employ a set of indicators to describe how these three factors vary across countries and regions, highlighting context-specific challenges and enablers of climate policy ambition. We outline existing studies that incorporate political factors in IAMs and propose a framework to employ empirical data to build climate mitigation scenarios that incorporate political dynamics. Our findings show that there is substantial heterogeneity in key political drivers of climate policy ambition within IAM regions, calling for a more disaggregated regional grouping within models. Importantly, we highlight that the political challenges and enablers of climate policy ambition considerably vary across regions, suggesting that future modeling efforts incorporating political dynamics can significantly increase the realism of IAM scenarios

Integrating techno-economic, socio-technical and political perspectives on national energy transitions: A meta-theoretical framework

Economic development, technological innovation, and policy change are especially prominent factors shaping energy transitions. Therefore explaining energy transitions requires combining insights from disciplines investigating these factors. The existing literature is not consistent in identifying these disciplines nor proposing how they can be combined. We conceptualize national energy transitions as a co-evolution of three types of systems: energy flows and markets, energy technologies, and energy-related policies. The focus on the three types of systems gives rise to three perspectives on national energy transitions: techno-economic with its roots in energy systems analysis and various domains of economics; socio-technical with its roots in sociology of technology, STS, and evolutionary economics; and political with its roots in political science. We use the three perspectives as an organizing principle to propose a meta-theoretical framework for analyzing national energy transitions. Following Elinor Ostrom's approach, the proposed framework explains national energy transitions through a nested conceptual map of variables and theories. In comparison with the existing meta-theoretical literature, the three perspectives framework elevates the role of political science since policies are likely to be increasingly prominent in shaping 21st century energy transitions

Versos expressos : tradução comentada de poemas de Charles Harpur

A tradução poética passa por obstáculos tanto da produção de um poema quanto os tradutórios. Neste trabalho, apresento meu processo tradutório ao traduzir os poemas “An Aboriginal Mother’s Lament” e “A Midsummer Noon in the Australian Forest”, do poeta australiano Charles Harpur, escritos no século XIX. Descrevo o processo tradutório e de construção de poesia através, principalmente, da teoria de Pym (2008) e Laranjeira (2003), que discutem competência tradutória e tradução poética, respectivamente, e de Zavaglia, Renard e Janczur (2015), que discutem tradução comentada. A tradução foi feita com o suporte do Google Drive e dicionários como o Oxford, o Priberam e o Dicionário Criativo. A tradução comentada permite que seja feita a apreciação não apenas do produto isolado, mas da jornada do tradutor, suas escolhas, suas estratégias, seus desafios e suas soluções. Abre janelas para observar a construção de um texto novo, de um poema novo. O processo inteiro se torna o objeto a ser analisado. Através da tradução comentada, o tradutor conhece melhor a sua própria tradução e pode refletir sobre as suas escolhas.When translating poetry, the translator faces the challenge of both writing a poem and translating a text. I present here in this work, the process of translating into Portuguese the poems “An Aboriginal Mother’s Lament” e “A Midsummer Noon in the Australian Forest”, by Australian poet Charles Harpur written in the 19th century. I describe the translational process by drawing mainly on concepts discussed by Pym (2004) and Laranjeira (2003) about translation competence and translation of poetry, respectively, and on Zavaglia, Renard e Janczur (2015), who write on annotated translation. Both source and target texts were stored on Google Drive, and dictionaries, such as Oxford, Priberam and Dicionário Criativo were consulted. Not only does annotated translation allow the translator to discuss the final product, but it also unveils his journey, his choices, the strategies used, and challenges and solutions found. It opens a window to reveal the construction of a new text, a new poem. The entire process is the object to be analyzed. By means of annotations, the translator is more aware of his own translation and can thus reflect upon his choices

Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions

The mitigation scenarios database of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Report is an important resource for informing policymaking on energy transitions. However, there is a large variety of models, scenario designs, and resulting outputs. Here we analyse the scenarios consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C or below regarding the speed, trajectory, and feasibility of different fossil fuel reduction pathways. In scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot, global coal, oil, and natural gas supply (intended for all uses) decline on average by 95%, 62%, and 42%, respectively, from 2020 to 2050, but the long-term role of gas is highly variable. Higher-gas pathways are enabled by higher carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), but are likely associated with inadequate model representation of regional CO2 storage capacity and technology adoption, diffusion, and path-dependencies. If CDR is constrained by limits derived from expert consensus, the respective modelled coal, oil, and gas reductions become 99%, 70%, and 84%. Our findings suggest the need to adopt unambiguous near- and long-term reduction benchmarks in coal, oil, and gas production and use alongside other climate mitigation targets

A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios

Long-term mitigation scenarios developed by integrated assessment models underpin major aspects of recent IPCC reports and have been critical to identify the system transformations that are required to meet stringent climate goals. However, they have been criticized for proposing pathways that may prove challenging to implement in the real world and for failing to capture the social and institutional challenges of the transition. There is a growing interest to assess the feasibility of these scenarios, but past research has mostly focused on theoretical considerations. This paper proposes a novel and versatile multidimensional framework that allows evaluating and comparing decarbonization pathways by systematically quantifying feasibility concerns across geophysical, technological, economic, socio-cultural and institutional dimensions. This framework enables to assess the timing, disruptiveness and scale of feasibility concerns, and to identify trade-offs across different feasibility dimensions. As a first implementation of the proposed framework, we map the feasibility concerns of the IPCC 1.5 C Special Report scenarios. We select 24 quantitative indicators and propose feasibility thresholds based on insights from an extensive analysis of the literature and empirical data. Our framework is, however, flexible and allows evaluations based on different thresholds or aggregation rules. Our analyses show that institutional constraints, which are often not accounted for in scenarios, are key drivers of feasibility concerns. Moreover, we identify a clear intertemporal trade-off, with early mitigation being more disruptive but preventing higher and persistent feasibility concerns produced by postponed mitigation action later in the century