Testing Anxiety/Uncertainty Management Theory across Hispanic-Non-Hispanic Barriers

William Gudykunst’s Anxiety and Uncertainty Management Theory seeks to understand the factors that influence the effectiveness of intercultural communication. This study examines AUM theory in the context of Hispanic and Non-Hispanic interaction by assessing levels of anxiety, uncertainty, intercultural interaction confidence and intercultural willingness to communicate experienced by Non-Hispanic students in regards to communicating with Hispanic individuals. Anxiety’s correlation with confidence and willingness to communicate suggests that intercultural communication across Hispanic-Non-Hispanic barriers may be more influenced by emotional factors than cognitive

France : austérité consolidée. Perspectives 2011-2012 pour l’économie française

En moyenne annuelle, l’économie française devrait croître de 1,6 % en 2011 et de 0,8 % en 2012 (tableau 1). Cette performance est particulièrement médiocre et très éloignée du cheminement normal d’une économie en sortie de crise. Trois ans après le début de la crise, le potentiel de rebond de l’économie française est important. Mais la reprise spontanée va être freinée principalement par la mise en place de plans d’économies budgétaires en France et dans l’ensemble de ses partenaires européens (...)

Retour en enfer ? Perspectives 2011-2012 pour l’économie mondiale

L’économie mondiale se relève avec difficultés du traumatisme de la récession de 2008/2009. Bien sûr, les plans de relance et les stabilisateurs automatiques ont évité l’enclenchement d’un processus dépressif comme dans les années 30 et les plans de soutien au secteur financier ont empêché les faillites bancaires en cascade et l’anéantissement du système financier. Mais la mobilisation de l’ensemble des moyens de la politique économique, conventionnels et non conventionnels, a conduit à la socialisation de dettes privées insoutenables, a laissé les budgets des États lourdement déficitaires et accru les dettes publiques dans des proportions importantes. Dans cette situation, les États européens s’alarment d’une possible dégradation de leur note souveraine. Les menaces de défaut gagnent certains grands pays de la zone euro en plus de la Grèce et les primes de risque pour les pays déjà en en difficulté montent en flèche. Les politiques économiques prennent donc le tournant de la rigueur en Europe pour tenter de redresser les finances publiques, au risque de faire replonger les économies dans la récession si les objectifs annoncés par les gouvernements étaient tenus coûte que coûte

Fiscal consolidation in times of crisis: is the sooner really the better?

Recent evidence has renewed views on the size of fiscal multipliers. It is notably emphasized that fiscal multipliers are higher in times of crisis. Starting from this literature, we develop a simple and tractable model to deal with the fiscal strategy led by euro area countries. Constrained by fiscal rules and by speculative attacks in financial markets, euro area members have adopted restrictive fiscal policies despite strong negative output gaps. Based on the model, we present simulations to determine the path of public debt given the current expected consolidation. Our simulations suggest that despite strong austerity measures, not all countries would be able to reach the 60% debt-to-GDP. If fiscal multipliers vary along the business cycle, this would give a strong case for delaying austerity. This alternative scenario is considered. Our results show not only that delaying austerity would improve growth perspectives and would not be incompatible with public debt converging to 60% of GDP

France : austérité consolidée. Perspectives 2011-2012 pour l’économie française.

Cette publication n'a pas de résumé.

Assessment of the regionalised demand response potential in Germany using an open source tool and dataset

With the expansion of renewable energies in Germany, imminent grid congestion events occur more often. One approach for avoiding curtailment of renewable energies is to cover excess feed-in by demand response. As curtailment is often a local phenomenon, in this work we determine the regional demand response potential for the 401 German administrative districts. The load regionalisation is based on weighting factors derived from population and employment statistics, locations of industrial facilities, etc. Using periodic and temperature-dependent load profiles and technology specific parameters, load shifting potentials were determined with a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. Our analysis yields that power-to-heat technologies provide the highest potentials, followed by residential appliances, commercial and industrial loads. For the considered 2030 scenario, power-to-gas and e-mobility also contribute a significant potential. The cumulated load increase potential of all technologies ranges from $5 - 470~MW$ per administrative district. The median value is $25~MW$, which would suffice to avoid the curtailment of 8 classical wind turbines. Further, we calculated load shifting cost-potential curves for each district. Industrial processes and power-to-heat in district heating have the lowest load shifting investment cost, due to the largest installed capacities per facility. We distinguished between different size classes of the installed capacity of heat pumps, yielding $23\%$ lower average investment cost for heat pump flexibilisation in the city of Berlin compared to a rural district. The variable costs of most considered load shifting technologies remain under the average compensation costs for curtailment of renewable energies of 110~\text{\euro{}}/MWh. As all results and the developed code are published under open source licenses, they can be integrated into energy system models

Fiscal consolidation, public debt and output dynamics in the euro area : lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers

EMU countries have engaged in a consolidation of fiscal policies since 2011. This paper deals with the public debt and output dynamic consequences of this strategy. To this end, we develop a simple macroeconomic model of the Euro area, where fiscal multiplier is time-varying. Recent empirical evidence has indeed shown that fiscal multipliers were higher in time of crisis. We then analyze the ability of EMU countries to comply with the new fiscal rules on public debt. The path of public debt and output gap is simulated according to different hypothesis related to fiscal multiplier, monetary policy and hysteresis effects. Not all EMU countries would be able to reach a 60% debt-to-GDP ratio in 2032. An alternative strategy may be to spread austerity in order to report part of consolidation to periods where the fiscal multiplier will be weaker. The gain of spreading austerity may yet be partly offset by higher risk premium. There is then a need to find institutional arrangements to avoid panics in the sovereign debt markets. Finally, it is shown that it would not be very efficient to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in Germany in order to balance austerity in the Euro area. Since output gap is nearly closed in Germany, the multiplier effect of a positive fiscal stance would be low and spillover effects would not be significant

Cost-effectiveness modelling of biological treatment sequences in moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis in France

Objectives. Modern treatment of RA includes the use of biologics. Their cost is high and comparison between different treatment strategies is needed. Method. Direct medical costs of RA in France were evaluated based on expert opinion. Then, simulation-decision analytical models were developed to assess four biologic treatment sequences over 2 years in patients failing to respond to at least one anti-TNF agent. Effectiveness was expressed in theoretical expected number of days (TEND) in remission or low disease activity [low disease activity score (LDAS)] based on DAS-28 scores. Results. Direct medical costs of RA in France (excluding the cost of biologics) were estimated at €905 (s.d. 263) for 6 months and €696 (s.d. 240) for each subsequent 6 months (P < 0.001) for patients achieving LDAS and €1215 for 6 months (s.d. 405) for patients not achieving LDAS. Based on LDAS criteria, using abatacept after an inadequate response to the first anti-TNF agent (etanercept) appeared significantly (P < 0.01) more efficacious over a 2-year period (102 TEND) compared with using rituximab at a 6-month re-treatment interval (82 TEND). Mean cost-effectiveness ratios showed significantly lower costs (P < 0.01) per TEND with abatacept as second biologic agent (€278) compared with rituximab (€303). After an inadequate response to two anti-TNF agents, using abatacept also appeared significantly more efficacious than an anti-TNF agent (P < 0.01). All comparisons were confirmed when using remission criteria instead of LDAS. Conclusion. Advanced simulation models based on clinical evidence and medical practice appear to be a promising approach for comparing cost-effectiveness of biologic strategies in R

Débat sur les perspectives économiques à court terme du 20 octobre 2009

Les prévisions occupent une place particulière dans le débat public en économie. Elles sont généralement considérées comme des prédictions, qualifiées fréquemment d’optimistes ou de pessimistes, comme si elles dépendaient de l’humeur des équipes qui les réalisent. Certes, en un sens, la prévision est un art tant elle dépend des signes précurseurs que nous livre le présent, de l’interprétation des évolutions en cours, de la capacité des économistes de sélectionner les informations pertinentes parmi celles, multiples, dont l’intérêt n’est qu’anecdotique. Mais elle est surtout une science puisqu’elle consiste à déduire des informations dont on dispose sur le présent une vision de l’avenir. Elle ne peut être formulée en dehors d’un cadre général d’interprétation, c’est-à-dire d’une théorie qui met en relation les informations que l’on privilégie et les variables que l’on cherche à prévoir. Parmi ces informations, certaines, cruciales, ne sont pas vraiment disponibles car, pour l’essentiel, elles dépendent de décisions à venir et qu’il n’existe pas vraiment de théorie permettant de déduire des données existantes ce que seront ces décisions. Il faut donc formuler des hypothèses alternatives et retenir celles qui nous paraissent les plus vraisemblables. Dès lors, les erreurs de prévision peuvent avoir au moins trois origines : une insuffisance d’information sur le présent, une mauvaise spécification théorique, la non réalisation de certaines hypothèses. De surcroît, il existe une incertitude irréductible au sens ou certains événements sont imprévisibles, alors même que leur conséquence sur l’activité économique est déterminante. Voilà pourquoi les chiffres associés à une prévision sont éminemment fragiles, qu’ils doivent être considérés comme conditionnels aux hypothèses que l’on formule, aux données dont on dispose et au cadre théorique dans lequel on raisonne. Il m’a donc semblé nécessaire que les prévisions réalisées par l’OFCE soient publiées en même temps qu’un débat autour de ces prévisions. Cela offre le double avantage de rendre explicite le doute inhérent à tout exercice de prévision pour les raisons déjà exposées, et de participer au pluralisme nécessaire à l’indépendance et au sérieux des études économiques. Une prévision, pour rigoureuse qu’elle soit, n’est pas un exercice mécanique au terme duquel la vérité serait révélée, mais une « histoire » raisonnée du futur délivrant des résultats incertains. Il est utile d’en comprendre d’emblée les limites, pour ne point s’en servir comme d’un argument d’autorité, à l’instar de ce qui est trop fréquemment le cas

Estudo multicêntrico de avaliação perioperatória para operações não cardíacas (EMAPO)

INTRODUCTION: The accuracy of perioperative evaluation methods available is better than chance, but their performance is not ideal. OBJECTIVES: To compare a new evaluation method (EMAPO) to the American College of Physicians method for determining the risk of cardiovascular complications in noncardiac surgeries and to look for new influencing variables. METHODS: Evaluations through EMAPO and the American College of Physicians method were employed for 700 patients. Cardiac events and deaths were recorded, the risk variables related to the occurrence of complications were verified, and the models were compared by analyzing the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Mortality rate was 3.4%, and the incidence of cardiovascular complications was 5.3%. Renal failure (P = 0.01), major surgery (P = 0.004), and emergency surgery (P = 0.003) were independently related to the occurrence of cardiovascular complications. The two methods produced similar results. CONCLUSION: EMAPO is as good as the American College of Physicians method in determining the risk of cardiovascular complications in noncardiac surgeries. New variables related to surgical risk were identified.INTRODUÇÃO: A precisão dos métodos de avaliação perioperatória disponíveis é melhor que o acaso, porém está longe do ideal. OBJETIVOS: Comparar um novo método de avaliação perioperatória (EMAPO) ao método do American College of Physicians para determinar o risco cardíaco em cirurgias não cardíacas e buscar novas variáveis envolvidas na determinação deste risco. MÉTODOS: O EMAPO e o método do American College of Physicians foram aplicados em 700 pacientes. A ocorrência de eventos cardíacos e de mortes foi documentada, a relação entre as variáveis de risco e as complicações foi estabelecida e os métodos foram comparados analisando as áreas sob a curva ROC. RESULTADOS: A mortalidade foi 3.4% e a incidência de complicações cardiovasculares 5.3%. A presença de insuficiência renal (p=0.01), cirurgia de grande porte (p=0.004) e cirurgia de emergência (p=0.003) se correlacionaram com a ocorrência de complicações cardiovasculares na análise multivariada. Não houve diferença entre os dois métodos. CONCLUSÕES: O EMAPO é tão eficaz quanto o método do American College of Physicians para determinar o risco de complicações cardiovasculares em cirurgias não cardíacas. Novas variáveis relacionadas com o risco perioperatório foram encontradas