Uncertainty quantification applied to the analysis and design of a hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerator for spacecraft reentry

The primary objective of this research is to investigate the uncertainty in the multidisciplinary analysis of a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator configuration for Mars entry, subject to uncertainty sources in the high-fidelity computational models and the operating conditions. Efficient uncertainty quantification methods based on stochastic expansions are applied to the analysis of the hypersonic flowfield, fluid-structure interaction, and flexible thermal protection system response of a deformable inflatable decelerator. Uncertainty analysis is first applied to the hypersonic flowfield simulations to quantify the uncertainty in the surface convective and radiative heat flux, pressure, and shear stress of a fixed inflatable decelerator, subject to uncertainties in the binary collision integrals of the transport properties, chemical kinetics, non-Boltzmann radiation modeling, and the freestream conditions. The uncertainty analysis for fluid-structure interaction modeling is conducted to quantify the uncertainty in the deflection and resulting surface heat flux, shear stress, and pressure of a deformable inflatable decelerator, subject to uncertainties in material structural properties, inflation pressure, and important flowfield uncertain variables identified in the initial study. The deflection uncertainty is shown to be primarily driven by the structural modeling uncertain variables and found to be insignificant in contributing to the resulting surface condition uncertainties. Uncertainty analysis is finally applied to the flexible thermal protection system bondline temperature for a ballistic Mars entry trajectory, subject to uncertainties in the material thermal properties and important flowfield variables from the initial study. The uncertainty in the bondline temperature is compared to its allowable temperature limit and shown to be primarily driven by the material thermal properties of the outer fabric and insulator layers, and the freestream density --Abstract, page iv

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Margin Process for a Flexible Thermal Protection System

Atmospheric entry vehicle thermal protection systems are margined due to the uncertainties that exist in entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of the materials and structures. Entry vehicle thermal protections systems are traditionally over-margined for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by designing to survive stacked worst-case scenarios. Additionally, the conventional heat shield design and margin process offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the corresponding reliability of the heat shield performance. A probabilistic margin process can be used to appropriately margin the thermal protection system based on rigorously calculated risk of failure. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and risk trades while preventing excessive margin from being applied. This study presents the methods of the probabilistic margin process and how the uncertainty analysis is used to determine the reliability of the entry vehicle thermal protection system and associated risks of failure

Reliability-Based Design of Thermal Protection Systems with Support Vector Machines

The primary objective of this work was to develop a computationally efficient and accurate approach to reliability analysis of thermal protection systems using support vector machines. An adaptive sampling approach was introduced informs a iterative support vector machine approximation of the limit state function used for measuring reliability. The proposed sampling approach efficient adds samples along the limit state function until the reliability approximation is converged. This methodology is applied to two samples, mathematical functions to test and demonstrate the applicability. Then, the adaptive sampling-based support vector machine approach is applied to the reliability analysis of a thermal protection system. The results of all three problems highlight the potential capability of the new approach in terms of accuracy and computational saving in determining thermal protection system reliability

Calibration Probe Uncertainty and Validation for the Hypersonic Material Environmental Test System

This paper presents an uncertainty analysis of the stagnation-point calibration probe surface predictions for conditions that span the performance envelope of the Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System facility located at NASA Langley Research Center. A second-order stochastic expansion was constructed over 47 uncertain parameters to evaluate the sensitivities, identify the most significant uncertain variables, and quantify the uncertainty in the stagnation-point heat flux and pressure predictions of the calibration probe for a low- and high-enthalpy test condition. A sensitivity analysis showed that measurement bias uncertainty is the most significant contributor to the stagnation-point pressure and heat flux variance for the low-enthalpy condition. For the high-enthalpy condition, a paradigm shift in sensitivities revealed the computational fluid dynamics model input uncertainty as the main contributor. A comparison between the prediction and measurement of the stagnation-point conditions under uncertainty showed that there was evidence of statistical disagreement. A validation metric was proposed and applied to the prediction uncertainty to account for the statistical disagreement when compared to the possible stagnation-point heat flux and pressure measurements

Evaluation of simulated O-3 production efficiency during the KORUS-AQ campaign: Implications for anthropogenic NOx emissions in Korea

We examine O3 production and its sensitivity to precursor gases and boundary layer mixing in Korea by using a 3-D global chemistry transport model and extensive observations during the KORea-US cooperative Air Quality field study in Korea, which occurred in May–June 2016. During the campaign, observed aromatic species onboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft, especially toluene, showed high mixing ratios of up to 10 ppbv, emphasizing the importance of aromatic chemistry in O3 production. To examine the role of VOCs and NOx in O3 chemistry, we first implement a detailed aromatic chemistry scheme in the model, which reduces the normalized mean bias of simulated O3 mixing ratios from –26% to –13%. Aromatic chemistry also increases the average net O3 production in Korea by 37%. Corrections of daytime PBL heights, which are overestimated in the model compared to lidar observations, increase the net O3 production rate by ~10%. In addition, increasing NOx emissions by 50% in the model shows best performance in reproducing O3 production characteristics, which implies that NOx emissions are underestimated in the current emissions inventory. Sensitivity tests show that a 30% decrease in anthropogenic NOx emissions in Korea increases the O3 production efficiency throughout the country, making rural regions ~2 times more efficient in producing O3 per NOx consumed. Simulated O3 levels overall decrease in the peninsula except for urban and other industrial areas, with the largest increase (~6 ppbv) in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). However, with simultaneous reductions in both NOx and VOCs emissions by 30%, O3 decreases in most of the country, including the SMA. This implies the importance of concurrent emission reductions for both NOx and VOCs in order to effectively reduce O3 levels in Korea

Backshell Radiative Heating on Human-Scale Mars Entry Vehicles

This work quantifies the backshell radiative heating experienced by payloads on human- scale vehicles entering the Martian atmosphere. Three underlying configurations were studied: a generic sphere, a sphere-cone forebody with a cylindrical payload, and an ellipsled. Computational fluid dynamics simulations of the flow field and radiation were performed using the LAURA and HARA codes, respectively. Results of this work indicated the primary contributor to radiative heating is emission from the CO2 IR band system. Furthermore, the backshell radiation component of heating can persist lower than 2 km/s during entry and descent. For the sphere-cone configuration a peak heat flux of about 3.5 W/cm(exp. 2) was observed at the payload juncture during entry. At similar conditions, the ellipsled geometry experienced about 1.25 W/cm(exp. 2) on the backshell, but as much as 8 W/cm(exp. 2) on the base at very high angle of attack. Overall, this study sheds light on the potential magnitudes of backshell radiative heating that various configurations may experience. These results may serve as a starting point for thermal protection system design or configuration changes necessary to accommodate thermal radiation levels

Stratospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes

Characterization of soluble bromide measurements and a case study of BrO observations during ARCTAS

A focus of the Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) mission was examination of bromine photochemistry in the spring time high latitude troposphere based on aircraft and satellite measurements of bromine oxide (BrO) and related species. The NASA DC-8 aircraft utilized a chemical ionization mass spectrometer (CIMS) to measure BrO and a mist chamber (MC) to measure soluble bromide. We have determined that the MC detection efficiency to molecular bromine (Br2), hypobromous acid (HOBr), bromine oxide (BrO), and hydrogen bromide (HBr) as soluble bromide (Br−) was 0.9±0.1, 1.06+0.30/−0.35, 0.4±0.1, and 0.95±0.1, respectively. These efficiency factors were used to estimate soluble bromide levels along the DC-8 flight track of 17 April 2008 from photochemical calculations constrained to in situ BrO measured by CIMS. During this flight, the highest levels of soluble bromide and BrO were observed and atmospheric conditions were ideal for the space-borne observation of BrO. The good agreement (R2 = 0.76; slope = 0.95; intercept = −3.4 pmol mol−1) between modeled and observed soluble bromide, when BrO was above detection limit (\u3e2 pmol mol−1) under unpolluted conditions (NOmol−1), indicates that the CIMS BrO measurements were consistent with the MC soluble bromide and that a well characterized MC can be used to derive mixing ratios of some reactive bromine compounds. Tropospheric BrO vertical column densities (BrOVCD) derived from CIMS BrO observations compare well with BrOTROPVCD from OMI on 17 April 2008

An analysis of fast photochemistry over high northern latitudes during spring and summer using in-situ observations from ARCTAS and TOPSE

Observations of chemical constituents and meteorological quantities obtained during the two Arctic phases of the airborne campaign ARCTAS (Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites) are analyzed using an observationally constrained steady state box model. Measurements of OH and HO2 from the Penn State ATHOS instrument are compared to model predictions. Forty percent of OH measurements below 2 km are at the limit of detection during the spring phase (ARCTAS-A). While the median observed-to-calculated ratio is near one, both the scatter of observations and the model uncertainty for OH are at the magnitude of ambient values. During the summer phase (ARCTAS-B), model predictions of OH are biased low relative to observations and demonstrate a high sensitivity to the level of uncertainty in NO observations. Predictions of HO2 using observed CH2O and H2O2 as model constraints are up to a factor of two larger than observed. A temperature-dependent terminal loss rate of HO2 to aerosol recently proposed in the literature is shown to be insufficient to reconcile these differences. A comparison of ARCTAS-A to the high latitude springtime portion of the 2000 TOPSE campaign (Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox) shows similar meteorological and chemical environments with the exception of peroxides; observations of H2O2 during ARCTAS-A were 2.5 to 3 times larger than those during TOPSE. The cause of this difference in peroxides remains unresolved and has important implications for the Arctic HOx budget. Unconstrained model predictions for both phases indicate photochemistry alone is unable to simultaneously sustain observed levels of CH2O and H2O2; however when the model is constrained with observed CH2O, H2O2 predictions from a range of rainout parameterizations bracket its observations. A mechanism suitable to explain observed concentrations of CH2O is uncertain. Free tropospheric observations of acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) are 2–3 times larger than its predictions, though constraint of the model to those observations is sufficient to account for less than half of the deficit in predicted CH2O. The box model calculates gross O3 formation during spring to maximize from 1–4 km at 0.8 ppbv d−1, in agreement with estimates from TOPSE, and a gross production of 2–4 ppbv d−1 in the boundary layer and upper troposphere during summer. Use of the lower observed levels of HO2 in place of model predictions decreases the gross production by 25–50%. Net O3 production is near zero throughout the ARCTAS-A troposphere, and is 1–2 ppbv in the boundary layer and upper altitudes during ARCTAS-B

Genetic modifiers in rare disorders: the case of fragile X syndrome.

Methods employed in genome-wide association studies are not feasible ways to explore genotype-phenotype associations in rare disorders due to limited statistical power. An alternative approach is to examine relationships among specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), selected a priori, and behavioural characteristics. Here, we adopt this strategy to examine relationships between three SNPs (5-HTTLPR, MAOA, COMT) and specific clinically-relevant behaviours that are phenotypic of fragile X syndrome (FXS) but vary in severity and frequency across individuals. Sixty-four males with FXS participated in the current study. Data from standardised informant measures of challenging behaviour (defined as physical aggression, property destruction, stereotyped behaviour, and self-injury), autism symptomatology, attention-deficit-hyperactivity-disorder characteristics, repetitive behaviour and mood/interest and pleasure were compared between each SNP genotype. No association was observed between behavioural characteristics and either 5-HTTLPR (serotonin) or MAOA (monoamine oxidase) genotypes. However, compared to the COMT (dopamine) AG and GG genotypes, the AA genotype was associated with greater interest and pleasure in the environment, and with reduced risk for property destruction, stereotyped behaviour and compulsive behaviour. The results suggest that common genetic variation in the COMT genotype affecting dopamine levels in the brain may contribute to the variability of challenging and repetitive behaviours and interest and pleasure in this population. This study identifies a role for additional genetic risk in understanding the neural and genetic mechanisms contributing to phenotypic variability in neurodevelopmental disorders, and highlights the merit of investigating SNPs that are selected a priori on a theoretical basis in rare populations