Hydro-PE: gridded datasets of historical and future Penman-Monteith potential evaporation for the United Kingdom

We present two new potential evaporation datasets for the United Kingdom: a historical dataset, Hydro-PE HadUKGrid, which is derived from the HadUK-Grid gridded observed meteorology (1969&ndash;2021); and a future dataset, Hydro-PE UKCP18 RCM, which is derived from UKCP18 regional climate projections (1980&ndash;2080). Both datasets are suitable for hydrological modelling, and provide Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration parameterised for short grass, with and without a correction for interception on days with rainfall. The potential evapotranspiration calculations have been formulated to closely follow the methodology of the existing Meteorological Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation System (MORECS) potential evapotranspiration, which has historically been widely used by hydrological modellers in the United Kingdom. The two datasets have been created using the same methodology, to allow seamless modelling from past to future. Hydro-PE HadUK-Grid shows good agreement with MORECS in much of the United Kingdom, although Hydro-PE HadUK Grid is higher in the mountainous regions of Scotland and Wales. This is due to differences in the underlying meteorology, in particular the wind speed, which are themselves due to the different spatial scales of the data. Hydro-PE HadUK-Grid can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5285/9275ab7e-6e93-42bc-8e72-59c98d409deb (Brown et al., 2022) and Hydro-PE UKCP18 RCM can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5285/eb5d9dc4-13bb-44c7-9bf8-c5980fcf52a4 (Robinson et al., 2021).</p

Is there an association between early weight status and utility based health-related quality of life in young children?

Purpose Few studies focus on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of preschool children with overweight or obesity. This is relevant for evaluation of obesity prevention trials using a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) framework. This study examined the association between weight status in the preschool years and HRQoL at age 5 years, using a preference-based instrument. Methods HRQoL [based on parent proxy version of the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3)] and weight status were measured in children born in Australia between 2007 and 2009. Children’s health status was scored across eight attributes of the HUI3—vision, hearing, speech, ambulation, dexterity, emotion, cognition and pain, and these were used to calculate a multi-attribute utility score. Ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit and two-part regressions were used to model the association between weight status and multi-attribute utility. Results Of the 368 children for whom weight status and HUI3 data were available, around 40% had overweight/obesity. After adjusting for child’s sex, maternal education, marital status and household income, no significant association between weight status in the preschool years and multi-attribute utility scores at 5 years was found. Conclusions Alternative approaches for capturing the effects of weight status in the preschool years on preference-based HRQoL outcomes should be tested. The application of the QALY framework to economic evaluations of obesity-related interventions in young children should also consider longitudinal effects over the life-course

Use of abstraction and discharge data to improve the performance of a national‐scale hydrological model

Across the UK, water abstracted from ground, surface, and tidal stores is regulated through a system of licenses to protect both the sources and the environment. Similar permits are required for discharging wastewater to rivers or onto the ground. These abstractions and discharges can have a significant impact on UK Rivers, but measurements are not readily available, which discourages their use in hydrological models of river flows. However, these very unique data sets provide a means to improve the performance of spatially distributed hydrological models, particularly during periods when abstraction regulations change and at ungauged river locations. To demonstrate this, point source abstraction and discharge measurements across England have been transformed into 1 × 1 km resolution gridded data and used with an enhanced formulation of the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model where these processes are mathematically represented. A comparison of G2G-simulated and gauged river flows for 605 catchments across England between 1999 and 2014 indicates that model simulation of river flows is generally improved at gauged locations downstream of abstraction/discharge sites. The main improvement is in the simulation of low flows, for which the median performance is improved by 10.7%, however, the impact on simulation of high river flows is more modest (1.5% improvement). These results demonstrate the potential gains available to the international hydrological and land-surface modeling community from using records of actual water use (where available) in models, in place of more widely used national statistics

Coronary CT Angiography and 5-Year Risk of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Although coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) improves diagnostic certainty in the assessment of patients with stable chest pain, its effect on 5-year clinical outcomes is unknown. METHODS: In an open-label, multicenter, parallel-group trial, we randomly assigned 4146 patients with stable chest pain who had been referred to a cardiology clinic for evaluation to standard care plus CTA (2073 patients) or to standard care alone (2073 patients). Investigations, treatments, and clinical outcomes were assessed over 3 to 7 years of follow-up. The primary end point was death from coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 5 years. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 4.8 years, which yielded 20,254 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year rate of the primary end point was lower in the CTA group than in the standard-care group (2.3% [48 patients] vs. 3.9% [81 patients]; hazard ratio, 0.59; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41 to 0.84; P=0.004). Although the rates of invasive coronary angiography and coronary revascularization were higher in the CTA group than in the standard-care group in the first few months of follow-up, overall rates were similar at 5 years: invasive coronary angiography was performed in 491 patients in the CTA group and in 502 patients in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.13), and coronary revascularization was performed in 279 patients in the CTA group and in 267 in the standard-care group (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.27). However, more preventive therapies were initiated in patients in the CTA group (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.65), as were more antianginal therapies (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.54). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of cardiovascular or noncardiovascular deaths or deaths from any cause. CONCLUSIONS: In this trial, the use of CTA in addition to standard care in patients with stable chest pain resulted in a significantly lower rate of death from coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 5 years than standard care alone, without resulting in a significantly higher rate of coronary angiography or coronary revascularization. (Funded by the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office and others; SCOT-HEART ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01149590 .)

Early morbidities following paediatric cardiac surgery: a mixed-methods study

BackgroundOver 5000 paediatric cardiac surgeries are performed in the UK each year and early survival has improved to > 98%.ObjectivesWe aimed to identify the surgical morbidities that present the greatest burden for patients and health services and to develop and pilot routine monitoring and feedback.Design and settingOur multidisciplinary mixed-methods study took place over 52 months across five UK paediatric cardiac surgery centres.ParticipantsThe participants were children aged MethodsWe reviewed existing literature, ran three focus groups and undertook a family online discussion forum moderated by the Children’s Heart Federation. A multidisciplinary group, with patient and carer involvement, then ranked and selected nine key morbidities informed by clinical views on definitions and feasibility of routine monitoring. We validated a new, nurse-administered early warning tool for assessing preoperative and postoperative child development, called the brief developmental assessment, by testing this among 1200 children. We measured morbidity incidence in 3090 consecutive surgical admissions over 21 months and explored risk factors for morbidity. We measured the impact of morbidities on quality of life, clinical burden and costs to the NHS and families over 6 months in 666 children, 340 (51%) of whom had at least one morbidity. We developed and piloted methods suitable for routine monitoring of morbidity by centres and co-developed new patient information about morbidities with parents and user groups.ResultsFamilies and clinicians prioritised overlapping but also different morbidities, leading to a final list of acute neurological event, unplanned reoperation, feeding problems, renal replacement therapy, major adverse events, extracorporeal life support, necrotising enterocolitis, surgical infection and prolonged pleural effusion. The brief developmental assessment was valid in children aged between 4 months and 5 years, but not in the youngest babies or 5- to 17-year-olds. A total of 2415 (78.2%) procedures had no measured morbidity. There was a higher risk of morbidity in neonates, complex congenital heart disease, increased preoperative severity of illness and with prolonged bypass. Patients with any morbidity had a 6-month survival of 81.5% compared with 99.1% with no morbidity. Patients with any morbidity scored 5.2 points lower on their total quality of life score at 6 weeks, but this difference had narrowed by 6 months. Morbidity led to fewer days at home by 6 months and higher costs. Extracorporeal life support patients had the lowest days at home (median: 43 days out of 183 days) and highest costs (£71,051 higher than no morbidity).LimitationsMonitoring of morbidity is more complex than mortality, and hence this requires resources and clinician buy-in.ConclusionsEvaluation of postoperative morbidity provides important information over and above 30-day survival and should become the focus of audit and quality improvement.Future workNational audit of morbidities has been initiated. Further research is needed to understand the implications of feeding problems and renal failure and to evaluate the brief developmental assessment.FundingThis project was funded by the NIHR Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 8, No. 30. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.Katherine L Brown is a member of the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Clinical Trials Board (2017–21) and a member of the domain expert group of the National Congenital Heart Diseases Audit (2014–19). David L Barron is a member of the National Congenital Heart Disease Audit Steering Committee (2014–18). Monica Lakhanpaul is part of the following boards or panels: HTA Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health (MNCH) Methods Group, HTA MNCH Panel (2012–17) and Psychological and Community Therapies Panel (2012–15). Steve Morris has been a member of the following boards or panels: Health Services and Delivery Research (HSDR) Board Members (2014–18), HSDR Commissioned Board Members, HSDR Evidence Synthesis Sub Board 2016 and the Public Health Research Research Funding Board (2011–17). Thomas Witter was a member of the National Congenital Heart Disease Audit Steering Committee (2014–18). The research reported in this issue of the journal was funded by the HS&DR programme or one of its preceding programmes as project number 12/5005/06

Status and prospects for renewable energy using wood pellets from the southeastern United States

The ongoing debate about costs and benefits of wood-pellet based bioenergy production in the southeastern United States (SE USA) requires an understanding of the science and context influencing market decisions associated with its sustainability. Production of pellets has garnered much attention as US exports have grown from negligible amounts in the early 2000s to 4.6 million metric tonnes in 2015. Currently, 98% of these pellet exports are shipped to Europe to displace coal in power plants. We ask, ‘How is the production of wood pellets in the SE USA affecting forest systems and the ecosystem services they provide?’ To address this question, we review current forest conditions and the status of the wood products industry, how pellet production affects ecosystem services and biodiversity, and what methods are in place to monitor changes and protect vulnerable systems. Scientific studies provide evidence that wood pellets in the SE USA are a fraction of total forestry operations and can be produced while maintaining or improving forest ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are protected by the requirement to utilize loggers trained to apply scientifically based best management practices in planning and implementing harvest for the export market. Bioenergy markets supplement incomes to private rural landholders and provide an incentive for forest management practices that simultaneously benefit water quality and wildlife and reduce risk of fire and insect outbreaks. Bioenergy also increases the value of forest land to landowners, thereby decreasing likelihood of conversion to nonforest uses. Monitoring and evaluation are essential to verify that regulations and good practices are achieving goals and to enable timely responses if problems arise. Conducting rigorous research to understand how conditions change in response to management choices requires baseline data, monitoring, and appropriate reference scenarios. Long-term monitoring data on forest conditions should be publicly accessible and utilized to inform adaptive management

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Large-scale sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from one region allows detailed epidemiology and enables local outbreak management.

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly throughout the world. In the UK, the initial peak was in April 2020; in the county of Norfolk (UK) and surrounding areas, which has a stable, low-density population, over 3200 cases were reported between March and August 2020. As part of the activities of the national COVID-19 Genomics Consortium (COG-UK) we undertook whole genome sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes present in positive clinical samples from the Norfolk region. These samples were collected by four major hospitals, multiple minor hospitals, care facilities and community organizations within Norfolk and surrounding areas. We combined clinical metadata with the sequencing data from regional SARS-CoV-2 genomes to understand the origins, genetic variation, transmission and expansion (spread) of the virus within the region and provide context nationally. Data were fed back into the national effort for pandemic management, whilst simultaneously being used to assist local outbreak analyses. Overall, 1565 positive samples (172 per 100 000 population) from 1376 cases were evaluated; for 140 cases between two and six samples were available providing longitudinal data. This represented 42.6 % of all positive samples identified by hospital testing in the region and encompassed those with clinical need, and health and care workers and their families. In total, 1035 cases had genome sequences of sufficient quality to provide phylogenetic lineages. These genomes belonged to 26 distinct global lineages, indicating that there were multiple separate introductions into the region. Furthermore, 100 genetically distinct UK lineages were detected demonstrating local evolution, at a rate of ~2 SNPs per month, and multiple co-occurring lineages as the pandemic progressed. Our analysis: identified a discrete sublineage associated with six care facilities; found no evidence of reinfection in longitudinal samples; ruled out a nosocomial outbreak; identified 16 lineages in key workers which were not in patients, indicating infection control measures were effective; and found the D614G spike protein mutation which is linked to increased transmissibility dominates the samples and rapidly confirmed relatedness of cases in an outbreak at a food processing facility. The large-scale genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2-positive samples has provided valuable additional data for public health epidemiology in the Norfolk region, and will continue to help identify and untangle hidden transmission chains as the pandemic evolves.The sequencing costs were funded by the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium which is supported by funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute

The American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine Diagnostic Criteria for Mild Traumatic Brain Injury

Objective: To develop new diagnostic criteria for mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) that are appropriate for use across the lifespan and in sports, civilian trauma, and military settings. Design: Rapid evidence reviews on 12 clinical questions and Delphi method for expert consensus. Participants: The Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Task Force of the American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine Brain Injury Special Interest Group convened a Working Group of 17 members and an external interdisciplinary expert panel of 32 clinician-scientists. Public stakeholder feedback was analyzed from 68 individuals and 23 organizations. Results: The first 2 Delphi votes asked the expert panel to rate their agreement with both the diagnostic criteria for mild TBI and the supporting evidence statements. In the first round, 10 of 12 evidence statements reached consensus agreement. Revised evidence statements underwent a second round of expert panel voting, where consensus was achieved for all. For the diagnostic criteria, the final agreement rate, after the third vote, was 90.7%. Public stakeholder feedback was incorporated into the diagnostic criteria revision prior to the third expert panel vote. A terminology question was added to the third round of Delphi voting, where 30 of 32 (93.8%) expert panel members agreed that ‘the diagnostic label ‘concussion’ may be used interchangeably with ‘mild TBI’ when neuroimaging is normal or not clinically indicated.’ Conclusions: New diagnostic criteria for mild TBI were developed through an evidence review and expert consensus process. Having unified diagnostic criteria for mild TBI can improve the quality and consistency of mild TBI research and clinical care.</p