Chris Cannings: A Life in Games

Chris Cannings was one of the pioneers of evolutionary game theory. His early work was inspired by the formulations of John Maynard Smith, Geoff Parker and Geoff Price; Chris recognized the need for a strong mathematical foundation both to validate stated results and to give a basis for extensions of the models. He was responsible for fundamental results on matrix games, as well as much of the theory of the important war of attrition game, patterns of evolutionarily stable strategies, multiplayer games and games on networks. In this paper we describe his work, key insights and their influence on research by others in this increasingly important field. Chris made substantial contributions to other areas such as population genetics and segregation analysis, but it was to games that he always returned. This review is written by three of his students from different stages of his career

A game-theoretic model of kleptoparasitic behavior in polymorphic populations

Kleptoparasitism, the stealing of food by one animal from another, is a widespread biological phenomenon. In this paper we build upon earlier models to investigate a population of conspecifics involved in foraging and, potentially, kleptoparasitism. We assume that the population is composed of four types of individuals, according to their strategic choices when faced with an opportunity to steal and to resist an attack. The fitness of each type of individual depends upon various natural parameters, for example food density, the handling time of a food item and the probability of mounting a successful attack against resistance, as well as the choices that they make. We find the evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) for all parameter combinations and show that there are six possible ESSs, four pure and two mixtures of two strategies, that can occur. We show that there is always at least one ESS, and sometimes two or three. We further investigate the influence of the different parameters on when each type of solution occurs

Kleptoparasitic melees--modelling food stealing featuring contests with multiple individuals

Kleptoparasitism is the stealing of food by one animal from another. This has been modelled in various ways before, but all previous models have only allowed contests between two individuals. We investigate a model of kleptoparasitism where individuals are allowed to fight in groups of more than two, as often occurs in real populations. We find the equilibrium distribution of the population amongst various behavioural states, conditional upon the strategies played and environmental parameters, and then find evolutionarily stable challenging strategies. We find that there is always at least one ESS, but sometimes there are two or more, and discuss the circumstances when particular ESSs occur, and when there are likely to be multiple ESSs

Evolutionarily stable sexual allocation by both stressed and unstressed potentially simultaneous hermaphrodites within the same population.

Factors influencing allocation of resources to male and female offspring continue to be of great interest to evolutionary biologists. A simultaneous hermaphrodite is capable of functioning in both male and female mode at the same time, and such a life-history strategy is adopted by most flowering plants and by many sessile aquatic animals. In this paper, we focus on hermaphrodites that nourish post-zygotic stages, e.g. flowering plants and internally fertilising invertebrates, and consider how their sex allocation should respond to an environmental stress that reduces prospects of survival but does not affect all individuals equally, rather acting only on a subset of the population. Whereas dissemination of pollen and sperm can begin at sexual maturation, release of seeds and larvae is delayed by embryonic development. We find that the evolutionarily stable strategy for allocation between male and female functions will be critically dependent on the effect of stress on the trade-off between the costs of male and female reproduction, (i.e. of sperm and embryos). Thus, we identify evaluation of this factor as an important challenge to empiricists interested in the effects of stress on sex allocation. When only a small fraction of the population is stressed, we predict that stressed individuals will allocate their resources entirely to male function and unstressed individuals will increase their allocation to female function. Conversely, when the fraction of stress-affected individuals is high, stressed individuals should respond to this stressor by increasing investment in sperm and unstressed individuals should invest solely in embryos. A further prediction of the model is that we would not expect to find populations in the natural world where both stressed and unstressed individuals are both hermaphrodite

Evolutionary Dynamics on Small-Order Graphs

Abstract. We study the stochastic birth-death model for structured finite populations popularized by Lieberman et al. [Lieberman, E., Hauert, C., Nowak, M.A., 2005. Evolutionary dynamics on graphs. Nature 433, 312-316]. We consider all possible connected undirected graphs of orders three through eight. For each graph, using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations, we determine the fixation probability of a mutant introduced at every possible vertex. We show that the fixation probability depends on the vertex and on the graph. A randomly placed mutant has the highest chances of fixation in a star graph, closely followed by star-like graphs. The fixation probability was lowest for regular and almost regular graphs. We also find that within a fixed graph, the fixation probability of a mutant has a negative correlation with the degree of the starting vertex. 1

Second report of the Committee on the Nomenclature of the Cranial Elements in the Permian Tetrapoda

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World caf\ue9 method to engage smart energy-district project partners in assessing urban co-benefits

Urban energy-district projects introduce outstanding technological innovation in buildings and energy systems increasing sustainability in city neighborhoods. Such projects generate additional co-benefits for the city beyond changes in physical elements and development of social and institutional relationships (e.g. local employment, environmental quality, public health, property values, innovation attitude, etc.). Since exceeding main declared goals or not always clearly foreseen in the early project phase, these co-benefits are often not properly understood and considered. However, only their explicit recognition will make possible their inclusion in the assessment of the whole project\u2019s performance. From these considerations, this study faces the issue of engaging project partners in assessing co-benefits in order to consider a broad spectrum of relevant, positive effects in the evaluation process. Group knowledge and group thinking of this complex topic are investigated through the world caf\ue9 method, providing an atmosphere of trust and open discussions among participants. This empirical work lays the foundations to go beyond the mere economic measure as the sole criterion for assessing project effects, also including changes in end-user behavior and intangible asset

Severity of back pain may influence choice and order of practitioner consultations across conventional, allied and complementary health care: A cross-sectional study of 1851 mid-age Australian women

© 2016 The Author(s). Background: Back pain is a common, disabling and costly disorder for which patients often consult with a wide range of health practitioners. Unfortunately, no research to date has directly examined the association between the severity of back pain and back pain sufferers' choice of whom and in what order to consult different health practitioners. Methods: This is a sub-study of the large nationally representative Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH). The mid-age cohort women (born 1946-51, n = 13,715) of the ALSWH were recruited from the Australian national Medicare database in 1996. These women have been surveyed six time, with survey 6 being conducted in 2010 (n = 10,011). Mid-age women (n = 1851) who in 2010 had sought help from a health care practitioner for their back pain were mailed a self-report questionnaire targeting their previous 12 months of health services utilisation, health status and their levels of back pain intensity. Results: A total of 1620 women were deemed eligible and 1310 (80.9 %) returned completed questionnaires. Mid-age women with back pain visited various conventional, allied health and CAM practitioners for care: 75.6 % consulted a CAM practitioner; 58.4 % consulted a medical doctor; and 54.2 % consulted an allied health practitioner. Women with the most severe back pain sought conventional care from a general practitioner, and those who consulted a general practitioner first had more severe back pain than those who consulted another practitioner first. Following the general practitioner visit, the women with more severe back pain were more likely to be referred to a conventional specialist, and those with less severe back pain were more likely to be referred to a physiotherapist. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that women with more severe back pain are likely to visit a conventional practitioner first, whereas women with less severe back pain are likely to explore a range of treatment options including CAM practitioners. The improvement of back pain over time following the various possible sequencing of consultations with different types of health practitioners is a topic with implications for ensuring safe and effective back pain care and worthy of further detailed investigation

Barriers-enablers-ownership approach: A mixed methods analysis of a social intervention to improve surgical antibiotic prescribing in hospitals

Objectives To assess an intervention for surgical antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP) improvement within surgical teams focused on addressing barriers and fostering enablers and ownership of guideline compliance. Design The Queensland Surgical Antibiotic Prophylaxis (QSAP) study was a multicentre, mixed methods study designed to address barriers and enablers to SAP compliance and facilitate engagement in self-directed audit/feedback and assess the efficacy of the intervention in improving compliance with SAP guidelines. The implementation was assessed using a 24-month interrupted time series design coupled with a qualitative evaluation. Setting The study was undertaken at three hospitals (one regional, two metropolitan) in Australia. Participants SAP-prescribing decisions for 1757 patients undergoing general surgical procedures from three health services were included. Six bimonthly time points, pre-implementation and post implementation of the intervention, were measured. Qualitative interviews were performed with 29 clinical team members. SAP improvements varied across site and time periods. Intervention QSAP embedded ownership of quality improvement in SAP within surgical teams and used known social influences to address barriers to and enablers of optimal SAP prescribing. Results The site that reported senior surgeon engagement showed steady and consistent improvement in prescribing over 24 months (prestudy and poststudy). Multiple factors, including resource issues, influenced engagement and sites/time points where these were present had no improvement in guideline compliance. Conclusions The barriers-enablers-ownership model shows promise in its ability to facilitate prescribing improvements and could be expanded into other areas of antimicrobial stewardship. Senior ownership was a predictor of success (or failure) of the intervention across sites and time periods. The key role of senior leaders in change leadership indicates the critical need to engage other specialties in the stewardship agenda. The influence of contextual factors in limiting engagement clearly identifies issues of resource distributions/inequalities within health systems as limiting antimicrobial optimisation potential

Acute effect of exercise intensity and duration on acylated ghrelin and hunger in men.

Published onlineJournal ArticleThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from BioScientifica via the DOI in this record.Acute exercise transiently suppresses the orexigenic gut hormone acylated ghrelin, but the extent exercise intensity and duration determine this response is not fully understood. The effects of manipulating exercise intensity and duration on acylated ghrelin concentrations and hunger were examined in two experiments. In experiment one, nine healthy males completed three, 4-hour conditions (control, moderate-intensity running (MOD) and vigorous-intensity running (VIG)), with an energy expenditure of ~2.5 MJ induced in both MOD (55 min running at 52% peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak)) and VIG (36 min running at 75% VO2peak). In experiment two, nine healthy males completed three, 9-hour conditions (control, 45 min running (EX45) and 90 min running (EX90)). Exercise was performed at 70% VO2peak In both experiments, participants consumed standardised meals, and acylated ghrelin concentrations and hunger were quantified at predetermined intervals. In experiment one, delta acylated ghrelin concentrations were lower than control in MOD (ES=0.44, P=0.01) and VIG (ES=0.98, P<0.001); VIG was lower than MOD (ES=0.54, P=0.003). Hunger ratings were similar across the conditions (P=0.35). In experiment two, delta acylated ghrelin concentrations were lower than control in EX45 (ES=0.77, P<0.001) and EX90 (ES=0.68, P<0.001); EX45 and EX90 were similar (ES=0.09, P=0.55). Hunger ratings were lower than control in EX45 (ES=0.20, P=0.01) and EX90 (ES=0.27, P=0.001); EX45 and EX90 were similar (ES=0.07, P=0.34). Hunger and delta acylated ghrelin concentrations remained suppressed at 1.5h in EX90 but not EX45. In conclusion, exercise intensity, and to a lesser extent duration, are determinants of the acylated ghrelin response to acute exercise.The research was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Diet, Lifestyle & Physical Activity Biomedical Research Unit based at University Hospitals of Leicester and Loughborough University. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health