Large‐scale hydro‐climatology of the terrestrial Arctic drainage system

The large‐scale hydro‐climatology of the terrestrial Arctic drainage system is examined, focusing on the period 1960 onward. Special attention is paid to the Ob, Yenisey, Lena, and Mackenzie watersheds, which provide the bulk of freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Station data are used to compile monthly gridded time series of gauge‐corrected precipitation (P). Gridded time series of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P−ET) are calculated from the moisture flux convergence using NCEP reanalysis data. Estimates of ET are obtained as a residual. Runoff (R) is obtained from available discharge records. For long‐term water‐year means, P−ET for the Yenisey, Lena, and Mackenzie watersheds is 16–20% lower than the observed runoff. In the Ob watershed, the two values agree within 9%. Given the uncertainties in P−ET, we consider the atmospheric and surface water budgets to be reasonably closed. Compared to the other three basins, the mean runoff ratio (R/P) is lower in the Ob watershed, consistent with the high fraction of annual precipitation lost through ET. All basins exhibit summer maxima in P and minima in P−ET. Summer P−ET in the Ob watershed is negative due to high ET rates. For large domains in northern Eurasia, about 25% of July precipitation is associated with the recycling of water vapor evapotranspirated within each domain. This points to a significant effect of the land surface on the hydrologic regime. Variability in P and P−ET has generally clear associations with the regional atmospheric circulation. A strong link with the Urals trough is documented for the Ob. Relationships with indices of the Arctic Oscillation and other teleconnections are generally weak. Water‐year time series of runoff and P−ET are strongly correlated in the Lena watershed only, reflecting extensive permafrost. Cold‐season runoff has increased in the Yenisey and Lena watersheds. This is most pronounced in the Yenisey watershed, where runoff has also increased sharply in spring, decreased in summer, but has increased for the year as a whole. The mechanisms for these changes are not entirely clear. While they fundamentally relate to higher air temperatures, increased winter precipitation, and strong summer drying, we speculate links with changes in active layer thickness and thawing permafrost

Temporal and spatial variability of snow accumulation in central Greenland

Snow accumulation records from central Greenland are explored to improve the understanding of the accumulation signal in Greenland ice core records. Results from a “forest” of 100 bamboo poles and automated accumulation monitors in the vicinity of Summit as well as shallow cores collected in the Summit and Crete areas are presented. Based on these accumulation data, a regression has been calculated to quantify the signal-to-noise variance ratio of ice core accumulation signals on a variety of temporal (1 week to 2 years) and spatial (20 m to 200 km) scales. Results are consistent with data obtained from year-round automated accumulation measurements deployed at Summit which suggest that it is impossible to obtain regional snow accumulation data with seasonal resolution using four accumulation monitors positioned over a length scale of ∼30 km. Given this understanding of the temporal and spatial dependence of noise in the ice core accumulation signal, the accumulation records from 17 shallow cores are revisited. Each core spans the time period from 1964 to 1983. By combining the accumulation records, the regional snow accumulation record has been obtained for this period. The results show that 9 of the 20 years can be identified as having an accumulation different from the 20 year mean with 99% confidence. The signal-to-noise variance ratio for the average accumulation signal sampled at annual intervals is 5.8±0.5. The averaged accumulation time series may be useful to climate modelers attempting to validate their models with accurate regional hydrologic data sets

An examination of the precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island, eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Copyright @ 2004 Wiley-BlackwellThe variability of size and source of significant precipitation events were studied at an Antarctic ice core drilling site: Dolleman Island (DI), located on the eastern coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant precipitation events that occur at DI were temporally located in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data set, ERA-40. The annual and summer precipitation totals from ERA-40 at DI both show significant increases over the reanalysis period. Three-dimensional backwards air parcel trajectories were then run for 5 d using the ECMWF ERA-15 wind fields. Cluster analyses were performed on two sets of these backwards trajectories: all days in the range 1979–1992 (the climatological time-scale) and a subset of days when a significant precipitation event occurred. The principal air mass sources and delivery mechanisms were found to be the Weddell Sea via lee cyclogenesis, the South Atlantic when there was a weak circumpolar trough (CPT) and the South Pacific when the CPT was deep. The occurrence of precipitation bearing air masses arriving via a strong CPT was found to have a significant correlation with the southern annular mode (SAM); however, the arrival of air masses from the same region over the climatological time-scale showed no such correlation. Despite the dominance in both groups of back trajectories of the westerly circulation around Antarctica, some other key patterns were identified. Most notably there was a higher frequency of lee cyclogenesis events in the significant precipitation trajectories compared to the climatological time-scale. There was also a tendency for precipitation trajectories to come from more northerly latitudes, mostly from 50–70°S. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a strong influence on the mechanism by which the precipitation was delivered; the frequency of occurrence of precipitation from the east (west) of DI increased during El Niño (La Niña) events

Collaborative Research: Did the Laurentine Ice Sheet Control Abrupt Climate Change?

This is a collaborative project with the University of Maine and Ohio State University. The Principal Investigators will model the late glacial Laurentide Ice Sheet from near steady-state equilibrium at - 25,000 BP (years before present), through reversible stadial/interstadial transitions associated with Laurentide iceberg outbursts (Heinrich events 2 and 1), and across the threshold of irreversible Laurentide collapse after the last iceberg outburst at - 1 1,000 BP (Heinrich event 0). The goals are to determine if ice-sheet changes could have triggered climate changes by abrupt ice sheet change and to investigate the structure of these changes. The Principal Investigators will isolate mechanisms of abrupt change over hundreds of years in the ice sheet that are large enough to trigger climate changes captured as time snapshots by coupled global and regional atmospheric climate models. Specific modeling tasks are: 1) to provide the climate settings surrounding the Laurentide Ice Sheet at snapshots of time during this late glacial period. This includes the wind field over the ice sheet, proglacial lakes along the border, the fine-resolution mesoscale climate of North America, and global climate; 2) to provide the basal boundary conditions that, together with the internal flow and temperature fields, are used to calculate the basal mass balance. This includes the pattern of basal temperatures, melting and freezing rates, and the associated subglacial hydrology; 3) to model the Laurentide Ice Sheet basal thermal, hydrological, and mechanical conditions within the imposed and basal boundary constraints for the chosen timeframe; and 4) to determine whether modeling will isolate mechanisms of abrupt change that allow rapid advance and retreat of Laurentide ice, with areal, elevation, and volume changes large enough to trigger climate changes that are captured by our snapshots of regional and global climate.This project has significance for educational outreach and the possible behavior of present-day ice sheets. The education outreach program will be interactive with high school students. They will be able to manipulate the major variables so that they can view three-dimensional computer simulations of how the Laurentide Ice Sheet responds to each variable. This program will be disseminated on the world-wide web. If fluctuations in the Laurentide Ice Sheet triggered climate changes, then the possibility exists that present-day ice sheets covering Greenland and Antarctica could trigger similar climate changes, with major social, economic, and political consequences. A way to assess this possibility is to understand the internal instability mechanisms that could have caused abrupt changes in Laurentide ice extent, and to tie them firmly to known late glacial climate changes

Foehn winds in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctic: The origin of extreme warming events

Foehn winds resulting from topographic modification of airflow in the lee of mountain barriers are frequently experienced in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica. Strong foehn winds in the MDVs cause dramatic warming at onset and have significant effects on landscape forming processes; however, no detailed scientific investigation of foehn in the MDVs has been conducted. As a result, they are often misinterpreted as adiabatically warmed katabatic winds draining from the polar plateau. Herein observations from surface weather stations and numerical model output from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during foehn events in the MDVs are presented. Results show that foehn winds in the MDVs are caused by topographic modification of south-southwesterly airflow, which is channeled into the valleys from higher levels. Modeling of a winter foehn event identifies mountain wave activity similar to that associated with midlatitude foehn winds. These events are found to be caused by strong pressure gradients over the mountain ranges of the MDVs related to synoptic-scale cyclones positioned off the coast of Marie Byrd Land. Analysis of meteorological records for 2006 and 2007 finds an increase of 10% in the frequency of foehn events in 2007 compared to 2006, which corresponds to stronger pressure gradients in the Ross Sea region. It is postulated that the intra- and interannual frequency and intensity of foehn events in the MDVs may therefore vary in response to the position and frequency of cyclones in the Ross Sea region

340 years of atmospheric circulation characteristics reconstructed from an eastern Antarctic Peninsula ice core

Copyright @ 2006 American Geophysical Union (AGU)Precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island (DI), located off the east coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, are investigated using reanalysis and back trajectory data. The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and ENSO are both shown to influence precipitation delivery and event size. Precipitation delivery variability is compared against the interannual variation of chemical data from two DI ice cores. Nitrate concentration in the cores is strongly linked with the ratio of easterly to westerly back trajectories arriving at DI, as described by a Cross-Peninsula Index (CPI) defined in this paper. This CPI is used subsequently to reconstruct the atmospheric circulation characteristics for the 340-year ice core record. The analysis highlights a period of increased easterlies during 1720–1780 and an increase in westerlies for 1950–1980, the latter concomitant with a positive SAM trend and western Peninsula warming. The reconstruction also reveals periods when polynyas may have been present in the Weddell Sea

Design and operation of a prototype interaction point beam collision feedback system for the International Linear Collider

A high-resolution, intratrain position feedback system has been developed to achieve and maintain collisions at the proposed future electron-positron International Linear Collider (ILC). A prototype has been commissioned and tested with a beam in the extraction line of the Accelerator Test Facility at the High Energy Accelerator Research Organization in Japan. It consists of a stripline beam position monitor (BPM) with analogue signal-processing electronics, a custom digital board to perform the feedback calculation, and a stripline kicker driven by a high-current amplifier. The closed-loop feedback latency is 148 ns. For a three-bunch train with 154 ns bunch spacing, the feedback system has been used to stabilize the third bunch to 450 nm. The kicker response is linear, and the feedback performance is maintained, over a correction range of over $\pm$60 {\mu}m. The propagation of the correction has been confirmed by using an independent stripline BPM located downstream of the feedback system. The system has been demonstrated to meet the BPM resolution, beam kick, and latency requirements for the ILC

Summer Drivers of Atmospheric Variability Affecting Ice Shelf Thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

Satellite data and a 35-year hindcast of the Amundsen Sea Embayment summer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to understand how regional and large-scale atmospheric variability affects thinning of ice shelves in this sector of West Antarctica by melting from above and below (linked to intrusions of warm water caused by anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge). El Nino episodes are associated with an increase in surface melt but do not have a statistically significant impact on westerly winds over the continental shelf edge. The location of the Amundsen Sea Low and the polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) have negligible impact on surface melting, although a positive SAM and eastward shift of the Amundsen Sea Low cause anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge. The projected future increase in El Nino episodes and positive SAM could therefore increase the risk of disintegration of West Antarctic ice shelves

Antarctic Peninsula mesoscale cyclone variability and climatic impacts influenced by the SAM

The frequency of mesoscale cyclones in the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) region during 1991-94 is correlated with the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) index, most strongly during winter and spring. Also, during periods of positive SAM index polarity there is a shift in the storm tracks to favor more east-bound trajectories, consistent with strengthening of circumpolar westerlies. The presence of mesoscale cyclones is associated with positive near-surface-air temperature anomalies in the WAP region year-round, largest during winter