The Influence of the Ruble Real Exchange Rate on the Russian Economy

An econometric study of the influence of the ruble real exchange rate on the Russian economy is considered in the paper. The research, based on a disaggregated macroeconomic model, presents a theoretical description of the three main sectors of the Russian economy. The most important result is that the current ruble real appreciation causes the real output decline in the main sectors of the economy. On the other hand, stable expectations of the ruble real appreciation lead to growth of the economy real output. The conclusions are confirmed by results of an econometric study based on the Engle-Granger cointegration analysis.exchange rate; macroeconomic model

Cognitive modeling of social behaviors

To understand both individual cognition and collective activity, perhaps the greatest opportunity today is to integrate the cognitive modeling approach (which stresses how beliefs are formed and drive behavior) with social studies (which stress how relationships and informal practices drive behavior). The crucial insight is that norms are conceptualized in the individual mind as ways of carrying out activities. This requires for the psychologist a shift from only modeling goals and tasks —why people do what they do—to modeling behavioral patterns—what people do—as they are engaged in purposeful activities. Instead of a model that exclusively deduces actions from goals, behaviors are also, if not primarily, driven by broader patterns of chronological and located activities (akin to scripts). To illustrate these ideas, this article presents an extract from a Brahms simulation of the Flashline Mars Arctic Research Station (FMARS), in which a crew of six people are living and working for a week, physically simulating a Mars surface mission. The example focuses on the simulation of a planning meeting, showing how physiological constraints (e.g., hunger, fatigue), facilities (e.g., the habitat’s layout) and group decision making interact. Methods are described for constructing such a model of practice, from video and first-hand observation, and how this modeling approach changes how one relates goals, knowledge, and cognitive architecture. The resulting simulation model is a powerful complement to task analysis and knowledge-based simulations of reasoning, with many practical applications for work system design, operations management, and training

Macroeconometric modeling: modern trends, problems, an example of the econometric model of the Russian economy

This research deals with methodological problems of econometric modeling for the Russian economy of 1990–2000s with respect to modern trends in macroeconomic and econometric theory. The authors propose a two-stage procedure of modeling. At the first stage a disaggregated dynamical model is created aimed at theoretical description of the main sectors of the Russian economy: export-oriented, inner-oriented, gas, infrastructural monopolies, monetary, budget, household income and expenditure sectors. At the second stage an econometric model is proposed which includes the nonstationary cointegration type and the balance type relationships and identities. This system of equations is solved simultaneously and used for the analysis of short-term and medium-term shocks and projections.Russian economy; cointegration

Higgs Hadroproduction at Large Feynman x

We propose a novel mechanism for the production of the Higgs boson in inclusive hadronic collisions, which utilizes the presence of heavy quarks in the proton wave function. In these inclusive reactions the Higgs boson acquires the momenta of both the heavy quark and antiquark and thus carries 80% or more of the projectile's momentum. We predict that the cross section ${d \sigma/d x_F}(p \bar p \to H X)$ for the inclusive production of the Standard Model Higgs coming from intrinsic bottom Fock states is of order 150 fb at LHC energies, peaking in the region of $x_F \sim 0.9$. Our estimates indicate that the corresponding cross section coming from gluon-gluon fusion at $x_F = 0.9$ is relatively negligible and therefore the peak from intrinsic bottom should be clearly visible for experiments with forward detection capabilities. The predicted cross section for the production of the Standard Model Higgs coming from intrinsic heavy quark Fock states in the proton is sufficiently large that detection at the Tevatron and the LHC may be possible.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figure

Detection of Structural Breaks in Copula Models

The paper presents the research results on detection of structural breaks in copula models of multivariate time-series. A nonparametric method of structural break identification and estimation is used and its asymptotic characteristics (probabilities of the I and II-type errors, probability of estimation error) are analyzed. Simulation test results applied to Clayton and Gumbel copulas are presented and discussedCopula; structural break; Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics; interest rates; MosPrime; LIBOR; EURIBOR

Diffractive Higgs Production from Intrinsic Heavy Flavors in the Proton

We propose a novel mechanism for exclusive diffractive Higgs production $pp \to p H p$ in which the Higgs boson carries a significant fraction of the projectile proton momentum. This mechanism will provide a clear experimental signal for Higgs production due to the small background in this kinematic region. The key assumption underlying our analysis is the presence of intrinsic heavy flavor components of the proton bound state, whose existence at high light-cone momentum fraction $x$ has growing experimental and theoretical support. We also discuss the implications of this picture for exclusive diffractive quarkonium and other channels.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figure

Human Activity Behavior and Gesture Generation in Virtual Worlds for Long- Duration Space Missions

A virtual worlds presentation technique with embodied, intelligent agents is being developed as an instructional medium suitable to present in situ training on long term space flight. The system combines a behavioral element based on finite state automata, a behavior based reactive architecture also described as subsumption architecture, and a belief-desire-intention agent structure. These three features are being integrated to describe a Brahms virtual environment model of extravehicular crew activity which could become a basis for procedure training during extended space flight