Sovereign Debt: Default, Market Sanction, and Bailout

This paper explores the case of a sovereign indebted country facing a choice of economic policy today that will determine the country's ability to continue its debt servicing in the future. If the sovereign undertakes an unsound economic policy it will repudiate its debt with certainty; otherwise it will repudiate its debt with some positive probability. In our framework there is no court to enforce contracts. However, we assume the existence of a multilateral financial institution that could bailout the financially troubled sovereign country. Our focus is on the incentives created by the perspective of a bailout, as well as the punishment that the international financial markets could impose on the defaulting country, on today's economic policy. This essay provides a theoretical grounding for the IMF and other multilateral agencies intervention on the international financial markets showing that, unlike the idea that bailouts create both debtor and creditor moral hazard, it is sometimes a result of creditors' overreaction to the prospect of a liquidity crisis. The main result of the essay is that the multilateral will be better off bailing out the country regardless of the economic policy undertaken in order to avoid bigger losses from a generalized financial crisissovereign debt, default, bailout, creadible threat, market sanction

O PAPEL DOS RENDIMENTOS CRESCENTES NA LOCALIZAÇÃO ECONÔMICA

A teoria econômica convencional foi construída supondo-se a convexidade das funções de produção, como resultado da presença de rendimentos marginais decrescentes. Isto implica a existência e unicidade do equilíbrio. Atualmente, a existência de retornos crescentes é central nas modernas teorias de desenvolvimento, localização industrial, comércio internacional e geografia econômica. O objetivo deste texto é apresentar quatro modelos que Incorporam economias de aglomeração e custos de ajustamento para capturar insights relevantes na determinação da localização industrial e da força de trabalho, e no desenvolvimento econômico. Além disso, busca-se determinar como o approach história versus expectativas determina qual equilíbrio de longo prazo é atingido. Os modelos estudados são: Matsuyama (1991), Krugman (1991), Benabou e Fukao (1993) e Arthur (1994).The classical economic theory was built by supposing convexity of the production function as a result of decreasing returns of scale, which imply the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium. Actually, the existence of increasing returns is central to the modern theory of development, industrial localization, international trade, and economic geography. The main purpose of this paper is to present four models that use agglomeration economies and adjustment costs to capture important insights. Such that, It is our aim to present how the history vs. expectations works to provide the long run equilibrium. The models studied are: Matsuyama (1991), Krugman (1991), Benabou e Fukao (1993) e Arthur (1994)

Fertility study on a campo cerrado soil

Em experimento realizado em potes, em casa de vegetação, com milho como planta teste, foi estudada a possibilidade de, ao invés de se utilizarem tôdas as combinações de um fatorial completo 2°, usar-se apenas parte delas, verificando-se, ainda, quais as que devam ser usadas para uma resposta às investigações essenciais; o trabalho é, também, uma contribuição para o melhor conhecimento de um solo de campo cerrado. A análise estatística foi feita como fatorial completo 2° e também em fatoriais fracionados correspondentes aos dois sub-blocos —NPKCaM e +NPKCaM. A interação de mais alta ordem foi confundida em virtude do fracionamento em dois sub-blocos. O esquema que apresentou o menor coeficiente de variação e, portanto, melhor precisão, foi o —NPKCaM, que ainda permite o estudo dos efeitos principais e suas interações de primeira ordem, de grande importância para as informações de adubação. Tomando por base os resultados encontrados na análise feita para o esquema —NPKCaM, têm-se, como necessidades máximas dêste solo, o cálcio + magnésio (calagem), o fósforo e o nitrogênio, elementos que a análise do solo revelou deficientes. Não se observou resposta a micronutrientes, bem como ao potássio.In a greenhouse experiment with corn the response to mineral fertilizers (NPK, lime and micronutrients) was analized by three different experimental designs to determine how the responses to fertilizers as measured with incomplete factoriais compared with the complete factorial. The present papar represents also a contribution to the evaluation of the fertility of a campo cerrado soil from Goiás, Brazil. A complete 2° factorial analysis was done as well as two additional fractional factorial analysis corresponding to the two groups: —NPKCaM and +NPKCaM. The interaction of the higher order was confounded because of the fractionization in two groups. The best results were obtained from the fractional factorial analysis whose NPKCaM interaction was not confounded, since its standard deviation came out to be smaller. The same analysis was able to give us all the information about the single effects and main interactions, and according to its results the main needs of the soil in question are lime, phosphorus and nitrogen, the same deficiencies a previous soil analysis had detected. Neither micronutrients nor potassium responses were found to be significant

Promoting competition in the port sector : an analysis from the global models and application to the Brazilian case

O crescimento da demanda por serviços em setores de infraestrutura, associado à falta de investimentos públicos, induziu políticas de promoção da participação privada. No setor portuário isso se deu no início da década de 1990, quando o crescimento do comércio internacional decorrente do aumento da globalização evidenciou a ineficiência generalizada desse setor. Este artigo tem por objetivo discutir a participação privada no setor portuário a partir da análise de formas de organização e evolução do setor em diferentes países, analisando os possíveis modelos de competição associados a diferentes estruturas de propriedade em áreas do porto. O artigo inova em relação à literatura ao especificar a propriedade privada de áreas de uso restrito localizadas dentro do porto. O artigo apresenta, ainda, a evolução e a organização atual do setor portuário brasileiro. Ao longo da discussão, exemplos de portos são apresentados para ilustrar os conceitos apresentados.The growth in demand for services in the infrastructure sectors, coupled with the lack of public investment, led to policies to promote private participation in those sectors. In the port sector, the private participation started in the early 90s, when the growth of international trade resulted from increasing globalization has highlighted the generalized inefficiency of this sector. This article aims to discuss the private participation in the port sector from the analysis of ways of organization, as well as the evolution of this sector in different countries, analyzing the possible competition models associated to different ownership structures in the areas of the port. The article also presents the evolution and the current organization of the Brazilian port model. Throughout the discussion, examples of ports are presented to illustrate the discussed concepts.El crecimiento de la demanda de servicios en los sectores de infraestructura, junto con la falta de inversión pública, condujo políticas de promoción de la participación privada. En el sector portuario la participación privada recibió impulso a principios de 1990, cuando el crecimiento del comercio internacional y creciente globalización ha puesto de manifiesto la ineficacia general de este sector. Este artículo tiene como objetivo discutir la participación privada en el sector portuario desde el análisis de las formas de organización en esto sector en los distintos países y los modelos de competencia asociados a las diferentes estructuras de propiedad en las zonas del puerto. El artículo innova en relación con la literatura mediante la propuesta de la propiedad privada de zonas de uso restringido en el puerto. El artículo también presenta la evolución y organización actual del sector portuario brasileño. A lo largo de la discusión, los ejemplos se presentan para ilustrar los conceptos presentados

Catálogo Taxonômico da Fauna do Brasil: setting the baseline knowledge on the animal diversity in Brazil

The limited temporal completeness and taxonomic accuracy of species lists, made available in a traditional manner in scientific publications, has always represented a problem. These lists are invariably limited to a few taxonomic groups and do not represent up-to-date knowledge of all species and classifications. In this context, the Brazilian megadiverse fauna is no exception, and the Catálogo Taxonômico da Fauna do Brasil (CTFB) (http://fauna.jbrj.gov.br/), made public in 2015, represents a database on biodiversity anchored on a list of valid and expertly recognized scientific names of animals in Brazil. The CTFB is updated in near real time by a team of more than 800 specialists. By January 1, 2024, the CTFB compiled 133,691 nominal species, with 125,138 that were considered valid. Most of the valid species were arthropods (82.3%, with more than 102,000 species) and chordates (7.69%, with over 11,000 species). These taxa were followed by a cluster composed of Mollusca (3,567 species), Platyhelminthes (2,292 species), Annelida (1,833 species), and Nematoda (1,447 species). All remaining groups had less than 1,000 species reported in Brazil, with Cnidaria (831 species), Porifera (628 species), Rotifera (606 species), and Bryozoa (520 species) representing those with more than 500 species. Analysis of the CTFB database can facilitate and direct efforts towards the discovery of new species in Brazil, but it is also fundamental in providing the best available list of valid nominal species to users, including those in science, health, conservation efforts, and any initiative involving animals. The importance of the CTFB is evidenced by the elevated number of citations in the scientific literature in diverse areas of biology, law, anthropology, education, forensic science, and veterinary science, among others

Performance Financeira de Aeroportos Concedidos de um País Hipotético

Este caso de ensino possibilita aos estudantes do curso de graduação em Administração entender o funcionamento prático da definição de lucro anual uniforme e de dois conceitos derivados dele. O primeiro é o cálculo do superávit ou déficit acumulado em uma data futura de um projeto, e o outro é o cômputo da necessidade futura de caixa entre dois anos de execução do projeto. O caso deve ser utilizado como material didático suplementar nas disciplinas de Engenharia Econômica, Avaliação Econômica de Projetos, Avaliação de Projetos de Investimentos, ou disciplinas afins. É requerido que os estudantes tenham conhecimentos de matemática financeira e conheçam o conceito de lucro anual uniforme. O estudo de caso diz respeito a dois aeroportos concedidos no último dia útil de dezembro de 2013 de um país fictício, sendo um localizado na capital do país e o outro, no Sul do país. O quadro financeiro dos dois aeroportos era desfavorável. O diretor Fernandez da agência reguladora desse país pediu para um especialista em regulação da agência que avaliasse o déficit acumulado dos aeroportos em 2018 e a necessidade de caixa extra de 2019 até o vencimento dos contratos de concessão. O especialista Marcus R. Fortes concluiu que o déficit do aeroporto da capital, em 2018, é de $349,1 milhões e a necessidade adicional de caixa é de$ 16 milhões/ano. O saldo negativo do aeroporto do Sul, em 2018, é de $96 milhões e a necessidade extra de caixa é de$ 4,4 milhões/ano

Caracterização do fluxo de cargas e indicadores de concorrência entre os portos Brasileiros

In this paper, we characterize the domestic cargo flows for imports and exports, from and towards the Brazilian ports. Based on this characterization, it is possible to calculate basic competitiveness indicators, for different cargo types. We also present a discussion on minimum efficient scales for port operations. This discussion is particularly important for regulatory policies, because ports within geographic markets with little demand can accommodate only one terminal, without increasing marginal costs and prices. We observed that the geographic factor seems to be extremely important in determining which port to use to export Brazilian products or to import foreign cargo. In general, port competition seems to be more pronounced in federation states away from the coast. For states on the coast, exporting and importing companies seem to choose ports within their own states or in neighboring federation units. The great importance of the geographic proximity may be directly related to the high surface transportation costs observed in Brazil

Identificação de mercados geográficos e construção de indicadores de concorrência no setor portuário Brasileiro

In this paper, we analyze the structure of geographic markets for the port sector in Brazil, identifying influence areas for its main ports. We employed spatial clustering algorithms, based on foreign trade data. We observed that the geographic factor seems to be extremely important in determining which port to use to export Brazilian products or to import foreign cargo. In general, port competition seems to be more pronounced in federation states away from the coast. For states on the coast, exporting and importing companies seem to choose ports within their own states or in neighboring federation units. The great importance of the geographic proximity may be directly related to the high surface transportation costs observed in Brazil. Based on the identified geographic markets for the ports sector, we can then proceed with calculating competitiveness indicators between ports and within ports (between port terminals). Therefore, we were able to analyze the competition between terminals for ports serving each geographic market. We believe this approach to be more realistic than to analyze only inter port competition. For Port of Santos, which happens to be the biggest port in the country, it has a very high share of imports and exports for cargo consumed or produced in the state of São Paulo. However, for containers, for example, there are several terminals within Santos, sharing the total amount of operated cargo. This process employed in this paper show the advantage of combining more aggregated import and export information with disaggregated terminal operation data

Modelando o processo de seleção dos portos para movimentação das cargas no comércio exterior Brasileiro

In this paper, we present some models to analyze the impacts of surface transportation logistic costs on importers and exporters decisions on which ports to choose for foreign trade operations. We employed a technique based on fractional split distributions, in which the dependent variable corresponds to the share of cargo across the available ports for imports and exports. The geographic observational unit used was the microrregion (Brazil is divided in more than five hundred microrregions). Parameter estimation is done by maximum quasi-likelihood, based on foreign trade data. The results confirmed conclusions from other studies in the literature: the geographic factors and internal transportation costs are very important for importers and exporters decisions. Based on the estimated models, we simulate potential impacts of different scenarios for changes in internal transportation costs on the inter port competition in Brazil