Autonomous and Lagrangian ocean observations for Atlantic tropical cyclone studies and forecasts

Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 30, no. 2 (2017): 92–103, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2017.227.The tropical Atlantic basin is one of seven global regions where tropical cyclones (TCs) commonly originate, intensify, and affect highly populated coastal areas. Under appropriate atmospheric conditions, TC intensification can be linked to upper-ocean properties. Errors in Atlantic TC intensification forecasts have not been significantly reduced during the last 25 years. The combined use of in situ and satellite observations, particularly of temperature and salinity ahead of TCs, has the potential to improve the representation of the ocean, more accurately initialize hurricane intensity forecast models, and identify areas where TCs may intensify. However, a sustained in situ ocean observing system in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea dedicated to measuring subsurface temperature, salinity, and density fields in support of TC intensity studies and forecasts has yet to be designed and implemented. Autonomous and Lagrangian platforms and sensors offer cost-effective opportunities to accomplish this objective. Here, we highlight recent efforts to use autonomous platforms and sensors, including surface drifters, profiling floats, underwater gliders, and dropsondes, to better understand air-sea processes during high-wind events, particularly those geared toward improving hurricane intensity forecasts. Real-time data availability is key for assimilation into numerical weather forecast models.The NOAA/AOML component of this work was originally funded by the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, also known as the Sandy Supplemental, and is currently funded through NOAA research grant NA14OAR4830103 by AOML and CARICOOS, as well as NOAA’s Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). The TEMPESTS component of this work is supported by NOAA through the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (NA13OAR4830233) with additional analysis support from the WHOI Summer Student Fellowship Program, Nortek Student Equipment Grant, and the Rutgers University Teledyne Webb Graduate Student Fellowship Program. The drifter component of this work is funded through NOAA grant NA15OAR4320071(11.432) in support of the Global Drifter Program

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Global Oceans, BAMS State of the Climate in 2021, Chapter 3

Patterns of variability in ocean properties are often closely related to large-scale climate pattern indices, and 2021 is no exception. The year 2021 started and ended with La Niña conditions, charmingly dubbed a “double-dip” La Niña. Hence, stronger-than-normal easterly trade winds in the tropical south Pacific drove westward surface current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific; reduced sea surface temperature (SST) and upper ocean heat content in the eastern tropical Pacific; increased sea level, upper ocean heat content, and salinity in the western tropical Pacific; resulted in a rim of anomalously high chlorophyll-a (Chla) on the poleward and westward edges of the anomalously cold SST wedge in the eastern equatorial Pacific; and increased precipitation over the Maritime Continent. The Pacific decadal oscillation remained strongly in a negative phase in 2021, with negative SST and upper ocean heat content anomalies around the eastern and equatorial edges of the North Pacific and positive anomalies in the center associated with low Chla anomalies. The South Pacific exhibited similar patterns. Fresh anomalies in the northeastern Pacific shifted towards the west coast of North America. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) was weakly negative in 2021, with small positive SST anomalies in the east and nearly-average anomalies in the west. Nonetheless, upper ocean heat content was anomalously high in the west and lower in the east, with anomalously high freshwater flux and low sea surface salinities (SSS) in the east, and the opposite pattern in the west, as might be expected during a negative phase of that climate index. In the Atlantic, the only substantial cold anomaly in SST and upper ocean heat content persisted east of Greenland in 2021, where SSS was also low, all despite the weak winds and strong surface heat flux anomalies into the ocean expected during a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. These anomalies held throughout much of 2021. An Atlantic and Benguela Niño were both evident, with above-average SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the west coast of southern Africa. Over much of the rest of the Atlantic, SSTs, upper ocean heat content, and sea level anomalies were above average. Anthropogenic climate change involves long-term trends, as this year’s chapter sidebars emphasize. The sidebars relate some of the latest IPCC ocean-related assessments (including carbon, the section on which is taking a hiatus from our report this year). This chapter estimates that SST increased at a rate of 0.16–0.19°C decade−1 from 2000 to 2021, 0–2000-m ocean heat content warmed by 0.57–0.73 W m−2 (applied over Earth’s surface area) from 1993 to 2021, and global mean sea level increased at a rate of 3.4 ± 0.4 mm yr−1 from 1993 to 2021. Global mean SST, which is more subject to interannual variations than ocean heat content and sea level, with values typically reduced during La Niña, was ~0.1°C lower in 2021 than in 2020. However, from 2020 to 2021, annual average ocean heat content from 0 to 2000 dbar increased at a rate of ~0.95 W m−2, and global sea level increased by ~4.9 mm. Both were the highest on record in 2021, and with year-on-year increases substantially exceeding their trend rates of recent decades

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global Oceans

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and heat transport (MHT) have been observed (Fig. 3.21) at several trans-basin and western boundary moored arrays (e.g., Frajka-Williams et al. 2019; Berx et al. 2021; Hummels et al. 2022), as well as by synthesizing in situ and satellite altimetry measurements at several latitudes (Hobbs and Willis 2012; Sanchez-Franks et al. 2021; Dong et al. 2021; Kersalé et al. 2021). Here we provide updates on the MOC and MHT estimates from the Rapid Climate Change/MOC and Heatflux Array/Western Boundary Time Series (RAPID-MOCHA-WBTS) moored array at 26.5°N and from the synthetic approach at 41°N and at several latitudes in the South Atlantic. While updates for the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program and the South Atlantic MOC Basin-wide Array at 34.5°S are pending, we report on recent advances in observing the variability of flows comprising the lower limb of the North Atlantic MOC, including the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE, 16°N)

State of the Climate in 2018

International audienc