Tick-, mosquito-, and rodent-borne parasite sampling designs for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Parasites and pathogens are increasingly recognized as significant drivers of ecological and evolutionary change in natural ecosystems. Concurrently, transmission of infectious agents among human, livestock, and wildlife populations represents a growing threat to veterinary and human health. In light of these trends and the scarcity of long-term time series data on infection rates among vectors and reservoirs, the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will collect measurements and samples of a suite of tick-, mosquito-, and rodent-borne parasites through a continental-scale surveillance program. Here, we describe the sampling designs for these efforts, highlighting sampling priorities, field and analytical methods, and the data as well as archived samples to be made available to the research community. Insights generated by this sampling will advance current understanding of and ability to predict changes in infection and disease dynamics in novel, interdisciplinary, and collaborative ways. (Résumé d'auteur

Tick-, Mosquito-, and Rodent-Borne Parasite Sampling Designs for the National Ecological Observatory Network [Special Feature: NEON Design]

Parasites and pathogens are increasingly recognized as significant drivers of ecological and evolutionary change in natural ecosystems. Concurrently, transmission of infectious agents among human, livestock, and wildlife populations represents a growing threat to veterinary and human health. In light of these trends and the scarcity of long-term time series data on infection rates among vectors and reservoirs, the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will collect measurements and samples of a suite of tick-, mosquito-, and rodent-borne parasites through a continental-scale surveillance program. Here, we describe the sampling designs for these efforts, highlighting sampling priorities, field and analytical methods, and the data as well as archived samples to be made available to the research community. Insights generated by this sampling will advance current understanding of and ability to predict changes in infection and disease dynamics in novel, interdisciplinary, and collaborative ways

ORANI-NT: A Multisectoral Model of the Northern Territory Economy

In Chapter 2 we set ORANI-NT in the context of previous regional models based on ORANI. The key idea required to understand this to understand this program of regional research is the distinction between top-down and bottom-up regional models. Chapter 3 contains the complete algebraic specification of ORANTI-NT. It is centred on two large tables in which we list the models equations and definition of its variables.¶ Chapter 4 deals with data. A primary obstacle to the construction of sectorally disaggregated regional models is the lack of regional data. ORANI –NT requires an input-output data base and numerous parameters describing the responses of agents in the regional economy to price changes. As part of the ORANI-NT project we have attempted the ambitious task of compiling a data base suitable for the model. This required drawing on a wide range of statistical sources. The sources and methods used in compiling the data base are described in Chapter 4. In Chapter 5 we explain the strategy used for computing solutions to ORANI-NT. The system listed in Table 3.1 contains too many equations and variables for direct manipulation in the computer. Hence, it must be first condensed by algebraic elimination of equations and tables. The condensed system is described by Tables 5.1 and 5.2. Chapter 6 reports the illustrative simulations with ORANI-NT which were computed by participants at the ORANI-NT Training Course in March 1987. The course participants contributed to the preparation of these reports. Some concluding remarks and suggestions for future development of the modelling work are in Chapter 7

ORANI-F and MONASH: General Equilibrium Models of the Australian Economy for Medium-Run Forecasting

Since the mid-1980s ORANI-F has been the main vehicle used by the research team now located at the Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) for forecasting the average annual growth rates of macroeconomic and structural variables over the medium-run periods (six years, say). The model contains enough dynamics to accumulate variables such as capital stocks and foreign debt over the medium term but not enough to give convincing year-to-year time paths for the variables. In this paper we describe a 22-sector version of ORANI-F which is available to users outside the CoPS research team in a fully documented PC version. The CoPS team is in the process of moving to a new model, called MONASH , with enough dynamics to allow sectorally disaggregated annual forecasts which track externally projected business-cycle phenomena. We compare forecasts from MONASH and ORANI-F for the period 1990-91 to 1996-97

Some Short-Run Implications of Fightback: A General Equilibrium Analysis

We report ORANI projections of the short-run effects on the macroeconomy and the industrial structure of the main elements of the Fightback proposals, namely the proposed abolition of the wholesale sales tax, petroleum excise and the payroll tax, proposed cuts in income taxes and government outlays, and the proposed introduction of the goods and services tax. In making the projections, we assume (with Fightback) that nominal wage rates are unaffected. We also assume that private domestic aggregate demand moves in line with changes in disposable income. These fiscal changes fall into two main groups changes in indirect taxes which affect relative prices directly, and changes to income tax rates and government outlays which have their direct impacts on the level and commodity composition of domestic demand. Analysis of the second group is relatively straightforward. Cuts in income taxes increase private-sector demand, crowding out exports but generating a net increase in output and employment. Cuts in government outlays reduce public and private demand, allowing exports to expand but generating a net contraction of output and employment. Because public demand is concentrated on labour-intensive commodities, the contractionary employment effect of cuts in outlays is greater, per dollar of change, than is the expansionary effect of the income tax cuts. Differences in the macroeconomic effects of the indirect-tax components of the package depend on: (a) differences between the taxes in the effects of imposing a dollar's worth of tax on any given industry; (b) differences in the industrial incidences of the taxes; and (c) differences in the sizes of the tax changes. The payroll tax affects the cost of employing labour directly. It therefore has a greater effect in any given industry on employment per dollar of tax change than does the wholesale sales tax, the petroleum excise or the goods and services tax. The GST does not discriminate between imports and domestic commodities and affects exports in only a minor indirect way. Hence, its impact on cost-sensitive industries exposed to international competition is smaller than the impacts of the other taxes, especially the payroll tax. Hence, the implications of the GST for output and employment are relatively small. Our translation of proposals from the Fightback document into shocks for our model is not without some difficulties. The appropriate size of the income tax cuts is one especially controversial issue. We present sufficient information in the paper to allow the reader to perform some sensitivity analysis. For example, to see the effects of assuming that income tax cuts are worth $10billion rather than the$13billion which we impose, the income tax columns in our tables should be scaled down by a factor of 10/13. Substitution of the goods and services tax for the wholesale sales tax, petroleum excise and the payroll tax is a major feature of the Fightback package. Because employment is less sensitive to the cost effects of the goods and services tax than it is to those of the taxes which are replaced, our major conclusion is that the package would generate increases in employment and GDP in the short run. However, our projections also imply that, without adjustments to nominal wage rates, the package would lead to a reduction in the real value of the take-home wage rate. When nominal wage rates are adjusted to maintain the real value of disposable income per unit of employment, the expansionary effects of the package on employment and the GDP are substantially reduced, but not entirely eliminated.

Historical Simulations with the MONASH Regional Equation System

MONASH-RES combines a top-down regional equation system with the MONASH dynamic model of Australia to produce regional forecasts or policy analysis. Experience indicates that MONASH-RES gives acceptable rankings of regional economic prospects but understates inter-regional differences. We investigate the model's properties by attempting to reproduce observed patterns of State/Territory economic performance from 1986-87 to 1993-94. Industries are classified either as national, producing commodities that are readily traded between regions, or as local, producing goods or services that are not traded between regions. Regional outputs of national industries are assumed to be independent of regional demand for them but regional outputs of local industries must meet regions' demands. The results demonstrate that MONASH-RES forecasts are improved significantly by the inclusion of region-specific macro data and accurate information about the regional distribution of output changes in national industries. They confirm that the treatment of local industries in MONASH-RES is satisfactory.

Economic Modelling and the National Strategy for Vocational Education and Training

In 1994, the Australian National Training Authority (ANTA) was established by agreement between the Commonwealth, State and Territory governments. Central to the agreement Is the National Strategy for Vocational Education and Training (VET) which is organized around the four main themes of responsiveness, quality, accessibility and efficiency. To promote efficiency in the allocation of training resources, ANTA and a number of State government agencies responsible for VET planning take Into account employment forecasts generated using the MONASH model of the Australian economy. To promote responsiveness to the needs of Industry, a network of Industry training and advisory bodies (ITABs) has been set up. The ITABs' responsibilities include the development of "industry-credible, high-quality industry training plans as frameworks for identifying training needs in each industry, and for considering resource requirements". In this paper we review some of the issues that eirise in reconciling the information produced at these diverse levels of planning. In particular, we consider the role of the MONASH forecasting system as a planning framework for vocational education and training, and the caveats that must be borne in assessing the performance of the system in this role

Exporting Economic Models: CoPS' Experience in South Africa and Asia

The ORANI-F model of the Australian economy is closely based on the original ORANI model (Dixon, Parmenter, Sutton and Vincent, 1982), which has been used for many policy analyses in Australia. However, as well as having a more recent database, ORANI-F is a forecasting model: it includes some dynamic mechanisms absent from ORANI. We have created a generic version of ORANI-F as a pattern or template model to initiate collaborative CGE modelling with teams outside Australia. The ORANI-F documentation (Horridge, Parmenter and Pearson, 1993) is well adapted to skill transfer; it takes the reader through all the steps required for implementation of such a model, including its computer representation in GEMPACK, a flexible system for handling CGE models (Harrison and Pearson, 1993). The template model enables foreign collaborators to rapidly start running and analyzing their own simulations, so building up CGE experience. Country-specific features are incorporated by adapting or extending the template model. We illustrate this with IDC-GEM, a CGE model of the South African economy that is based on ORANI-F, but contains several new elements. IDC-GEM distinguishes multiple households, differing by income and ethnicity. Labour is grouped by skill and ethnicity. The macro equation system, structured around a SAM, includes mechanisms to distribute labour income between the different households. We present IDCGEM simulations of the effects of a South African tariff cut. Export-oriented industries tend to gain, at the expense of import-competing sectors like textiles and cars. This causes ethnic groups who work more in expanding industries to gain at the expense of other groups who are concentrated in shrinking sectors. On the demand side, car tariff cuts (leading to cheaper cars) disproportionately favour the richer households -- the poor buy few cars. Similarly ORANI-F has been used as a basis for the CAMGEM CGE model of Thailand. Here, special additions include an explicit treatment of Thailand's large international tourism industry. We are also in the process of contructing a Vietnamese GGE model, again based on the template. GEMPACK software, the template model, and documentation that explains both of these thoroughly, are three key advantages as we transfer our modelling technology to foreign environments.CGE modelling, IDC-GEM model of South Africa,CAMGEM model of Thailand